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156 FXUS64 KLIX 261824AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA124 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(Through Sunday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025High pressure surface and aloft centered over Georgia at midday.Still enough moisture around (precipitable water 2.1 inches) topromote the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.That should help to keep heat index values below advisory criteriain most areas.The upper ridge will shift westward and be centered over Alabamatomorrow, with the surface high off the southeast Louisiana coasttomorrow evening. Precipitable water values are expected to fallto about 1.7 inches tomorrow. That will help suppress convective development tomorrow, with not much more than a few isolated storms on lake or sea breeze boundaries at max heating. If anystorms do develop, they will certainly have the potential toproduce gusty winds with DCAPE values forecast to be around 1100. That also means it is going to get hotter, with high temperatures generally in the mid 90s tomorrow. Combined with dew points in themid 70s, that will produce heat index values in the 105 to 110 range for most or all of the area, and have issued a Heat Advisoryfor the entire area tomorrow. Overnight lows both tonight andtomorrow night will be in the 75 to 80 range for most of the area,and coastal locations may not fall below 80.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday night)Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025The upper and surface highs will continue to move west andnorthwest Monday and Tuesday, to be centered over Texas and thewestern Gulf by Tuesday evening. This will gradually turn oursurface winds northerly. In the absence of deep moisture, that can produce some of the hottest days locally, and that looks to beespecially true on Monday, when precipitable water values look tobe around 1.5 inches. High temperatures on Monday are likely to be in the upper 90s for most of the area, with isolated 100 degreereadings possible. The northerly winds will likely shut off any sea breeze until perhaps very late in the afternoon. Maximum heat index values on Monday afternoon could climb into the 110 to 115 range, especially along the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors, including most of the larger population centers. Heat related products look to be just about a certainty if the forecast holds for Monday. It's more of a question of where Heat Advisories will be more appropriate or whether Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings will be necessary. In coordination with neighboring offices, will deferthat decision until later tonight or on Sunday. Tuesday may be just as uncomfortable/oppressive as Monday, withnot a lot of change in the pattern for at least the first half ofthe day. By evening, an easterly wave is expected to be movinginto the eastern Gulf, and we'll start to see deeper moisture pushback into the area, with precipitable water values approaching 2inches by Tuesday evening. That may be enough to produce isolatedto scattered storms very late in the day, but probably not soonenough to preclude issuance of heat related products.The easterly wave is then forecast to move across the areaWednesday before becoming nearly stationary over south Louisianaor east Texas for the second half of the week. That will return usto the pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms for the secondhalf of the week with temperatures closer to normal. &&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025Scattered SHRA/TSRA for the next several hours that could impactmost terminals. Will amend to remove TEMPO groups as threatdiminishes. Direct impacts likely to be MVFR ceilings, IFR orlower visibilities, and perhaps wind gusts to 30 knots or so. Overnight and Sunday will carry little or no mention of TSRA, as threat Sunday looks to be 20 percent or less. Non-zero threat oflow ceilings/visibilities around sunrise if rain occurs late enough in the afternoon/evening for moisture to get trapped underan inversion. Not enough confidence to pinpoint a terminal at thispoint. &&.MARINE...Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025Main concern for marine operations will be the threat ofthunderstorms, as general wind fields are expected to remain nearor below 10 knots. The threat for the early portion of theforecast diminishes beyond this evening, with a few dry daysbefore the threat begins to increase again on Tuesday night orWednesday. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 73 94 73 97 / 10 20 0 10 BTR 75 95 75 97 / 10 30 0 10 ASD 74 94 74 97 / 10 20 0 10 MSY 79 95 78 97 / 10 20 0 10 GPT 77 92 77 98 / 10 20 0 10 PQL 74 94 75 98 / 10 20 0 10 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.GM...None.MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...RWLONG TERM....RWAVIATION...RWMARINE...RW
