[Alert]LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 1:24 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 1:24 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

156 
FXUS64 KLIX 261824
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
124 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday night) 
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

High pressure surface and aloft centered over Georgia at midday.
Still enough moisture around (precipitable water 2.1 inches) to
promote the development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon.
That should help to keep heat index values below advisory criteria
in most areas.

The upper ridge will shift westward and be centered over Alabama
tomorrow, with the surface high off the southeast Louisiana coast
tomorrow evening. Precipitable water values are expected to fall
to about 1.7 inches tomorrow. That will help suppress convective 
development tomorrow, with not much more than a few isolated 
storms on lake or sea breeze boundaries at max heating. If any
storms do develop, they will certainly have the potential to
produce gusty winds with DCAPE values forecast to be around 1100. 
That also means it is going to get hotter, with high temperatures 
generally in the mid 90s tomorrow. Combined with dew points in the
mid 70s, that will produce heat index values in the 105 to 110 
range for most or all of the area, and have issued a Heat Advisory
for the entire area tomorrow. Overnight lows both tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the 75 to 80 range for most of the area,
and coastal locations may not fall below 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday night)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

The upper and surface highs will continue to move west and
northwest Monday and Tuesday, to be centered over Texas and the
western Gulf by Tuesday evening. This will gradually turn our
surface winds northerly. In the absence of deep moisture, that 
can produce some of the hottest days locally, and that looks to be
especially true on Monday, when precipitable water values look to
be around 1.5 inches. High temperatures on Monday are likely to 
be in the upper 90s for most of the area, with isolated 100 degree
readings possible. The northerly winds will likely shut off any 
sea breeze until perhaps very late in the afternoon. Maximum heat 
index values on Monday afternoon could climb into the 110 to 115 
range, especially along the Interstate 10 and 12 corridors, 
including most of the larger population centers. Heat related 
products look to be just about a certainty if the forecast holds 
for Monday. It's more of a question of where Heat Advisories will 
be more appropriate or whether Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings will 
be necessary. In coordination with neighboring offices, will defer
that decision until later tonight or on Sunday. 

Tuesday may be just as uncomfortable/oppressive as Monday, with
not a lot of change in the pattern for at least the first half of
the day. By evening, an easterly wave is expected to be moving
into the eastern Gulf, and we'll start to see deeper moisture push
back into the area, with precipitable water values approaching 2
inches by Tuesday evening. That may be enough to produce isolated
to scattered storms very late in the day, but probably not soon
enough to preclude issuance of heat related products.

The easterly wave is then forecast to move across the area
Wednesday before becoming nearly stationary over south Louisiana
or east Texas for the second half of the week. That will return us
to the pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms for the second
half of the week with temperatures closer to normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Scattered SHRA/TSRA for the next several hours that could impact
most terminals. Will amend to remove TEMPO groups as threat
diminishes. Direct impacts likely to be MVFR ceilings, IFR or
lower visibilities, and perhaps wind gusts to 30 knots or so. 
Overnight and Sunday will carry little or no mention of TSRA, as 
threat Sunday looks to be 20 percent or less. Non-zero threat of
low ceilings/visibilities around sunrise if rain occurs late 
enough in the afternoon/evening for moisture to get trapped under
an inversion. Not enough confidence to pinpoint a terminal at this
point. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Main concern for marine operations will be the threat of
thunderstorms, as general wind fields are expected to remain near
or below 10 knots. The threat for the early portion of the
forecast diminishes beyond this evening, with a few dry days
before the threat begins to increase again on Tuesday night or
Wednesday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  94  73  97 /  10  20   0  10 
BTR  75  95  75  97 /  10  30   0  10 
ASD  74  94  74  97 /  10  20   0  10 
MSY  79  95  78  97 /  10  20   0  10 
GPT  77  92  77  98 /  10  20   0  10 
PQL  74  94  75  98 /  10  20   0  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 26, 1:24 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

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