ThreatWeb

271 
FXUS61 KCLE 040529
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1229 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing
a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.

2) An upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern 
continuing into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as
a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low 
pressure track east into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley 
region. Moisture transport from the Gulf will increase area 
PWATs on Wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th 
percentile for early November at regional sites. Widespread 
showers are expected to enter from the west Wednesday morning 
and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west 
to east in the evening. Can't rule out a few isolated embedded 
thunderstorms tomorrow as SBCAPE values may briefly increase to 
a few hundred J/kg in the morning and early afternoon. Severe 
threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability 
amount. Overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50 
inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts
of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of US-30. 
Additionally, a 40-50 LLJ will move overhead tomorrow and allow 
for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 MPH. 

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
There will likely be a window of dry weather on Thursday as the
trough lifts north before another trough sinks south Thursday 
night into Friday. This secondary trough will lead to occasional
chances for showers downwind of Lake Erie through the weekend 
and into early next week. Cooler temperatures expected this 
weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions are expected early this morning ahead of a cold
front and rain entering the region from the west. A low level
jet will enter the region ahead of the front and present a LLWS
threat, mainly to the western TAF sites. As rain enters the
region during the late morning hours, ceilings will fall to
lower VFR and eventually to MVFR with persistent rain showers.
Winds will remain out of the south with gusts of 20 to 30 kts
with the rain today. Some IFR could develop, especially in
typical spots like KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. The cold front will
move through the airspace late in the TAF period, ending the
rain and shifting winds to the southwest.

Outlook...Low pressure and a cold front crossing through the 
region Friday into Saturday bring the next potential round of 
non-VFR in rain showers/low ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across Lake Erie today 
into tomorrow morning. A 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead 
the Lower Great Lakes during the day tomorrow which may 
increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon and 
evening. Given the southerly component, the highest wave heights
of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the 
higher wind speeds. Winds shift southwesterly behind a cold 
front Wednesday night into Thursday before diminishing to 10-15 
knots by Thursday evening. Winds turn northwesterly in the wake 
of a trough Friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally 
between 10 and 20 knots. Conditions, particularly in the central
basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Toledo     Mansfield     Cleveland     Akron     Youngstown    Erie                  
11-03   77(1987)    76(2015)      79(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)    80(1961)       
11-04   80(2003)    77(2015)      79(2003)    76(2015)    77(2003)    78(2015)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...13

432 
FXUS63 KIND 031439
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
939 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and near record warmth are expected today with 
  highs in the mid 70s, wind gusts up to 30-35 mph are possible today

- Widespread rain arrives late tonight and continues into Wednesday

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late 
  this week through early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Area of clouds has overspread the western half or so of the forecast 
area this morning. Upped sky cover to reflect this. 

At the moment, believe that these clouds will mix out some by early 
afternoon, so allowed sky cover to return to partly cloudy. Given 
this, made no changes to high temperatures yet. If clouds hang in 
longer than expected, may have to nudge down temperatures later 
today.

Gusty winds are still expected as mixing deepens, with gusts to 
near 20kt already noted even under cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

A low pressure system and parent deep trough currently located near 
the Central Plains will lift northeastward through the day today. 
The low pressure system is expected to continue deepening as it 
pushes into the Midwest before eventually occluding on Wednesday. 
Meanwhile, a strong LLJ continues to shift eastward which will help 
to advect warm, rich Gulf moisture northward late today into 
tonight. 

Increasing dynamics from the approaching system combined with deeper 
moisture surging northward supports widespread precipitation by late 
tonight. The greatest precipitation chances are from late tonight 
through Wednesday morning as a narrow corridor of strong isentropic 
ascent moves across an anomalously moist warm sector. The strongest 
forcing should then begin to shift east of the area Wednesday 
afternoon leading to lower coverage of showers. Lingering moisture
and marginal forcing will likely still support scattered light 
showers or drizzle at times though. QPF amounts over an inch 
appear possible across southeast portions of central Indiana, 
where the strongest forcing and deeper moisture are likely to 
overlap.

Diurnal mixing into the strong LLJ may promote strong wind gusts up 
to 35 mph during the day today. Isolated higher gusts cannot be 
completely ruled out. Near record temperatures in the mid 70s are 
also possible from the strong southerly flow. The forecasted high 
temperature for Indianapolis this afternoon is 76F and the record 
high temperature is 77F. Clouds may limit overall heating slightly 
which leads to some uncertainty. It is worth noting though that the 
latest guidance has trended towards less cloud cover during the day 
thanks to drier air briefly filtering in ahead of the low pressure 
system.
  
Quiet weather conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday 
once drier air filters in behind a cold front. Model guidance 
generally depicts multiple shortwaves moving through the region 
within northwest flow aloft late this week through early next week. 
Weak forcing from these features could support low rain chances at 
times, mainly Friday and Sunday, but limited moisture return due to 
the Gulf remaining cutoff leads to lower confidence. Cold air 
advection will lead to cooler more seasonable conditions later this 
week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s by Friday. Seasonable 
conditions then persist through early next week, featuring highs 
generally in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 643 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly wind gusts between 22-32 kt are possible during the day 
  today

- Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions are possible through 15Z 
  today at the outlying TAF sites

- Widespread showers expected late tonight into Wednesday morning

 Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. However, Marginal 
non-convective LLWS conditions are possible through 15Z before winds 
pick up and begin to gust. This appears most likely near HUF/BMG 
with a low chance near LAF. This will remain brief enough to not 
warrant a mention in the TAF for LAF. Expect southerly winds through 
most of the period. Wind gusts as high as 22-32 kt are possible 
during the day today. Expect widespread showers by late tonight as a 
low pressure system moves in.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Melo

580 
FXUS63 KLMK 040329
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1029 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread rainfall tonight into Wednesday will benefit the 
  ongoing drought. Amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be most common, 
  though a few locations (10% chance) may see totals surpass 
  3 inches. The risk of flooding is low.

* The risk for severe weather is low, though brief and localized 
  gusty winds exceeding 40 mph may (20-30% chance) accompany showers 
  tonight into tomorrow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Conditions remain dry, breezy, and cloudy this evening. A band of 
rain showers is crossing the Mid-MS River Valley this evening, with 
moderate rain now falling across far western KY. These rain showers 
will work east across southern IN and central KY late tonight 
through Wednesday morning, before tapering off from west to east 
Wednesday afternoon. Prior to the arrival of the main swath of 
precip, scattered light to moderate showers will blossom in coverage 
over the next few hours as a 40-50 kt LLJ strengthens overhead. 
Anomalously strong low-level moisture transport is already underway 
and is forecast to continue through Wednesday morning. A plume of > 
1.6 inch PW will extend across the area from roughly 1 AM to 1 PM 
Wednesday. 

Overall, the risk for severe weather remains rather low. However, 
recent mesoanalysis trends and hi-res ensemble data support the idea 
of a narrow plume of 100-250 J/kg SBCAPE stretching into central KY 
through the early to mid-morning hours. Given the magnitude of the 
low-level jet and the presence of backed SSE sfc flow and 0-1 km SRH 
on the order of 200-300 m2/s2, cannot totally rule out isolated wind 
damage or a very brief spinup. And any robust shower will be capable 
of mixing down strong 30-40+ mph gusts. 

In terms of rainfall, a fairly widespread 1-2 inches still looks 
likely, with perhaps a bit less than 1 inch near the I-75 corridor 
in our eastern CWA. Localized amounts of 3+ inches still look 
possible, with the greatest signal for this across portions of west-
central and south-central KY. Storm drains clogged by leaves could 
produce some localized flooding issues, but widespread or 
significant flooding is not likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Now - Wednesday Night...

Mild and gusty this afternoon with temperatures approaching record 
highs in the upper 70s and low 80s as we speak. Gusts have mostly 
been in the 20-30 mph range, and will start to slacken by late 
afternoon. Otherwise, look for increasing mid and upper sky cover, 
but conditions will stay dry through sunset.

Records:

SDF - 82 (2003) 
LEX - 78 (2024) 
BWG - 82 (1974)

As we move through tonight, expect intense low level jetting to 
increase up around 50-60 knots beneath the right entrance region of 
strong mid to upper level jetting (70+ knots). Meanwhile, a surface 
cold front will approach the lower Ohio/Wabash River Valleys by dawn 
on Wednesday. This will provide the setup for widespread rainfall 
later tonight into Wednesday as forcing from the dynamics mentioned 
above combine with high PWATs (1.6 - 1.7"). It is worth noting that 
the low level jet fetch does appear to tap into an Atlantic and Gulf 
moisture feed in addition to the deep moisture already associated 
with this system. Precipitation has trended with an earlier start 
time tonight (likely some scattered showers before Midnight EST), 
likely due to that combined moisture fetch from the western 
Atlantic/eastern Gulf initially before the main plume arrives a bit 
later.

Although the widespread rainfall will be beneficial to ongoing 
drought conditions, especially southern KY where D1-D2 is currently 
observed. There are going to be a couple of concerns as we navigate 
the system later tonight through much of the daylight hours on 
Wednesday. Recent model runs have trended more aggressive with 
overall rainfall totals as a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE allows for 
some convective elements in the presence of high PWATs. Previous 
discussion mentioned a seasonably deep warm cloud layer combined 
with some training potential could lead to localized high amounts. 
We're seeing this in the CAM data has the latest runs of the REFs 
suggest localized amounts over 4" on the 48 hour PMM data. This may 
very well be weighted a bit too heavy from the FV3 and WRF ARW, but 
also can't rule it out given that NBM probabilities of > 4" through 
tomorrow have risen to around 10%, and probabilities over 3" are 
about 20-30% across south central KY. Given all this for 
consideration, like the messaging of a widespread 1 to 2", with 
localized amounts of 3-4" possible. For the most part, we should be 
able to handle these amounts, however the higher end could cause a 
few localized issues, especially in urban areas. The good news is 
that the signal for the highest totals does seem to line out with 
the worst current drought conditions.

The overall shear profile later tonight into Wednesday is quite 
impressive given the strong low level jet, and somewhat backed 
surface winds. The good news is that any surface or near-surface 
based instability looks to be pretty much non-existent. This will 
mostly mitigate the threat for any of the higher momentum air aloft 
to make it down to the surface with stronger showers/storms. That 
being said, can't completely rule out a few stronger gusts over 40 
mph possible early Wednesday through the afternoon. REFS probs of 
500 J/KG of SB CAPE do show a few pixels of 5-10% over southern KY 
tomorrow afternoon ahead of the front, so something we'll have to 
watch. SPC did bring a 2% Tor threat up to our SW CWA border, and 
could see a sliver of this threat extending into south central KY 
into Wed, but not sure the threat is even that high. Will call it 
non-zero for a brief spin-up, but not likely at all given the low 
level thermodynamic profile evident on soundings.

Thursday - Tuesday...

General troughing will continue to hold over the region through the 
late week time frame, ending with a closed upper low slowly exiting 
the eastern Great Lakes into the weekend. Expect this to be mostly 
dry stretch with the bulk of the data keeping the deeper moisture 
far enough north that we stay dry. Do expect some increases in cloud 
cover, especially as the trough axis and weak frontal boundary 
passes Friday.

Temperatures are expected to trend downward Thursday through 
Saturday with successive reinforcing (but dry) cool fronts. Highs in 
the upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday will give way to highs only 
in the 55 to 60 degree range by Saturday. Thursday night lows look 
to be in the 40s with Friday night lows more into the 30s to around 
40. Some frost is likely for early Saturday morning. Same as we 
trended downward with temps through Saturday, they will then trend 
steadily warmer Sunday through Tuesday, ending up back in the mid 
60s by early to middle next week. 

This should also continue to be a dry stretch of weather as 
unremarkable NW flow aloft and high pressure at the surface control 
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 718 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions and breezy SE winds to begin this TAF period. 
However, expect deteriorating conditions after 04Z Wed with the 
arrival of rain showers and a strengthening 40-50 kt low-level jet. 


A band of rain showers will work east across all five terminals 
between 04-09Z tonight, and scattered rain showers will be possible 
out ahead of the primary band. In addition, a developing 40-50 kt 
LLJ overhead will produce LLWS overnight into Wednesday morning. 
Between 09-17Z, expect low-end MVFR ceilings to envelope the region 
from west to east. Brief IFR/MVFR vsbys will also be possible in 
heavier rain showers. Cannot totally rule out an isolated rumble of 
thunder, either, but have kept the mention of TSRA to just BWG at 
this time. Low ceilings and steady to occasionally gusty SW winds 
will continue through the end of the TAF period, but with some 
improvements in ceilings by late Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EBW
DISCUSSION...BJS
AVIATION...EBW

515 
FXUS61 KILN 011801
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
101 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain showers to
the region tonight into early Monday. A stronger system will result 
in a more widespread rainfall event for the middle part of the week.

2) An upper trough will cross the region on Friday, bringing
temperatures back to near normal across the region in northerly
surface flow.  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A weak upper disturbance will cross the Ohio Valley tonight and bring
scattered light showers to the region overnight and early Monday. Off
of the surface, dry air is in place and these overnight showers will
have a very dry atmosphere to precipitate through before they will
actually reach the ground. Any precip is expected to be generally
light on the order of .01-.02 inches, but a isolated spot or two 
could see a wetting rainfall. The disparity here is noted in the
models as hit and miss QPF in light rain or showers.  

Ahead of the short wave, a developing 20-30 knot low level jet will 
lift up into our area this evening into tonight and aid in the
development of showers given a strong moisture transport. 

Models have come in a much better conformity with the next system
that will affect the region on Wednesday with a period of rain and
showers, significantly more moist than what will be seen overnight
tonight. 

A cutoff low in the Upper Midwest early Wed will move ne through WI
or possibly N through MN during the day. In either scenario, a
notable dry punch will be wrapped into the system and have its
western edge over the IN/OH border by nightfall. Rain after nightfall
is expected to be in the eastern reaches of the forecast area and
moving steadily east to be out of the picture by midnight. 

Key message 2) On Friday, cold advection showers will be present in 
northerly flow behind the upper low that will hang a l/w trough over 
the Ohio Valley and provide a source of lift to lingering llvl 
moisture. Sfc high pressure will then build behind it and dry out the
region through at least Saturday. 

Above normal temperatures will prevail through Friday and then drop
to near normal which will feel notably cooler with highs in the mid
50s and lows in the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ongoing showers in srn IN will still take a lot to produce any
significant rain along the IN/OH border as dewpoint depressions are
12-20 deg. In fact, the AWOS in Bedford IN was reporting 10sm -ra
from clear skies. 

Mid and high level clouds will continue to lower as the atmosphere 
moistens up from top to bottom. While chance of rain is high, any
significant rain dropping vsby is low and this was handled by using
prob30 for lower vsbys in -shra. Regardless of precip or not, cigs
will lower to MVFR after midnight and drop to the low end of MVFR
early tomorrow. IFR cloud deck could occur at the end of any precip
as the lower atmosphere has had a chance to reach saturation. 

Cigs improve at the end of the CVG 30 hour terminal forecast but
should stay low end MVFR for remaining terminals. 

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs and vsbys possible at times Wed and Thurs.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Franks
AVIATION...Franks

604 
CDUS41 KBOX 032123
CLIBDL

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
423 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2026

...................................

...THE HARTFORD CT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 3 2026...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1904 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         75    149 PM  78    1990  57     18       58       
  MINIMUM         44    535 AM  20    1980  37      7       31       
  AVERAGE         60                        47     13       45     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  TODAY            0.00          2.43 1927   0.11  -0.11     0.12     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.00                      0.34  -0.34     0.12     
  SINCE SEP 1      7.96                      9.25  -1.29     8.14     
  SINCE JAN 1     38.79                     39.80  -1.01    41.45     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            0.0           0.6  1951   0.0    0.0      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.1   -0.1      0.0      
  SINCE SEP 1      0.0                       0.8   -0.8      0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.8   -0.8      0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  TODAY            5                        18    -13       20        
  MONTH TO DATE   37                        54    -17       59        
  SINCE SEP 1    469                       529    -60      450        
  SINCE JUL 1    471                       537    -66      469        

 COOLING                                                              
  TODAY            0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE SEP 1     78                        94    -16       81        
  SINCE JAN 1    897                       819     78      852        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    14   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (170)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    20   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (180)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.3                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.7                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                                  


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    93           600 AM                                      
 LOWEST     23           200 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    58                                                        

..........................................................


THE HARTFORD CT CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   56        78      1987                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   36        23      1951                      
                                             1984                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
NOVEMBER  3 2026......SUNRISE   626 AM EST   SUNSET   442 PM EST     
NOVEMBER  4 2026......SUNRISE   627 AM EST   SUNSET   441 PM EST     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$