ThreatWeb

282 
WTNT43 KNHC 061436
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025
 
The center of Chantal has been moving inland over northeastern South 
Carolina this morning and is currently near the North and South 
Carolina border.  Surface observations indicate that the winds have 
decreased, and the system is now being classified as a 30-kt 
tropical depression.  The cyclone should continue to weaken today as 
it moves farther inland.  The global models show the circulation 
opening up into a trough of low pressure on Monday, with the remnant 
moisture moving northeastward along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. 
through early Tuesday.
 
Chantal is moving northward or 360/8 kt.  A turn toward the
northeast is anticipated later today or this evening as the cyclone
moves around the western side of a mid-level ridge located off the
U.S. East Coast. The latest track prediction is similar to the
previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat from Chantal will be heavy rainfall that is 
likely across portions of eastern and central North Carolina into 
Monday.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Chantal. Future advisories on this system will be issued by
the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC). 
Those advisories can be found on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1.Flash flood concerns continue today across portions of central 
North Carolina into Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding 
could occur within more urbanized areas.
 
2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. east coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach
goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 34.4N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  07/0000Z 35.4N  79.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/1200Z 37.0N  77.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

412 
CDUS41 KPBZ 100533
CLIZZV

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
133 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025

...................................

...THE ZANESVILLE OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 9 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         81   1204 PM 104    1936  85     -4       92       
  MINIMUM         69    526 AM  43    1961  64      5       67       
  AVERAGE         75                        74      1       80     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.10          2.59 2001   0.13  -0.03     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.90                      1.25  -0.35     0.72     
  SINCE JUN 1      5.68                      5.54   0.14     2.49     
  SINCE JAN 1     22.23                     21.54   0.69    20.29     

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE JUN 1     21                        22     -1       13        
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY       10                         9      1       15        
  MONTH TO DATE  103                        81     22       98        
  SINCE JUN 1    374                       268    106      340        
  SINCE JAN 1    432                       346     86      490        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    14   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (160)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    19   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     S (170)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     3.6                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.3                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  THUNDERSTORM                                                        
  HEAVY RAIN                                                          
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 
  HAZE                                                                


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    97          1200 AM                                      
 LOWEST     65          1200 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    81                                                        

..........................................................


THE ZANESVILLE OH CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   85       100      1936                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   64        42      1963                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
JULY 10 2025..........SUNRISE   608 AM EDT   SUNSET   858 PM EDT     
JULY 11 2025..........SUNRISE   609 AM EDT   SUNSET   857 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

437 
FXUS63 KIWX 092326
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
726 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. 
  Heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible in any
  storms.

- Dry tonight with potential for patchy fog to develop Thursday 
  morning.

- There is a High Swim Risk for southeastern Lake Michigan beaches 
  today through early Thursday morning. Stay out of the water!

- Hot and humid by the weekend with chances for rain/storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A cold front is located from Grand Rapids southwest towards Des 
Moines, and it will slowly sink south and east this afternoon and 
evening. Ahead of the front, destabilization is already occurring 
across our forecast area. A growing cumulus field is evident on 
visible satellite imagery and showers have been percolating 
throughout the area already today. Because of cloud cover across 
much of the area, temperatures have struggled to get out of the 70s 
today. Scattered multicell clusters of showers and a few storms are 
ongoing east of IN 49, while a lake shadow is keeping conditions dry 
along the lakeshore. Additional diurnally driven showers and storms 
will be possible until sunset. Much like setups over the past few 
weeks, it will be feast or famine for storms. Some locations may get 
nothing while others get several inches of rain in a short amount of 
time. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal Risk 
(level 1 of 5) for the far northeast portion of the forecast area, 
meaning a few storms could be strong to severe today. The setup for 
severe weather appears fairly unimpressive as there is ample 
instability for storms to work with (2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE), but no 
source of lift (until the front arrives) and little to no shear in 
place as vertical wind profiles are unidirectional out of the 
southwest. Confidence in severe weather is very low. Given ample low 
level moisture (dewpoints in the 70s) and high PWATs of 1.5-1.75", 
flooding is a much more likely scenario today than severe weather. 
Backbuilding will be possible with low level low from the 
west/southwest parallel to the boundary and slow Corfidi upshear 
winds. Precipitation rates should be very efficient today given
long, skinny CAPE profiles, a deep warm cloud layer, and PWATs 
above the 75th percentile of normal. WPC has much of the area in
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for localized flash flooding, 
which definitely is plausible given the favorable environment.

Additionally, there is a High Swim Risk for southeastern Lake 
Michigan beaches today through early Thursday. As winds switch from 
the southwest to northwest/north along the lakeshore behind the cold 
front, waves will build to 3 to 4 feet. Strong rip, structural, and 
longshore currents will all be possible, especially on the north 
side of piers. Stay out of the water!

winds will shift to be coming from the northwest after the front 
passes through and skies will start to clear out. Forecast soundings 
show an inversion developing tonight as well as a stable airmass 
moves in. With mostly clear skies, light winds, and residual ground 
moisture, patchy ground fog may develop Thursday morning. Confidence 
is medium in fog developing, but low as to the extent of visibility 
impacts. Thursday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds into 
the Upper Great Lakes region for 24-36 hours.

An upper level ridge expands across the southwest and central US 
this week and progresses eastward. Heat and humidity will build
across the Midwest as the upper level ridges expands and WAA 
increases later in the week. Depending on where the periphery of
the ridge sets up and how much destabilization occurs, we could
see some showers/storms on Friday. Better chances for 
rain/storms arrive by the weekend as another cold front moves 
through, although long term models disagree on exact timing and 
positioning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue this 
evening in the warm sector of an approaching low over eastern 
Michigan. The main boundary has pushed southeast of KSBN, so
mostly clear skies can now be expected for the rest of the
night. There is some potential for shallow fog towards morning
as winds die down. Confidence is low, but did include an MVFR
Tempo group.

Showers and storms will persist near KFWA for the next couple of
hours, but will diminish as instability lessons with the loss of
daytime heating. In the wake of showers and storms, fog appears
to be increasingly likely with renewed low level moisture, weak
flow, strong model concensus and a slow-moving front. 

Dry conditions are expected for Thursday, with just some
scattered mid-level clouds developing in the afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 AM CDT Thursday for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Brown/Cobb

267 
FXUS63 KPAH 100715
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
215 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances (10-25%) of thunderstorms are forecast today
  into Friday, with the relatively greater storm coverage across
  western Kentucky and southwest Indiana. 

- Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend into next week,
  with a roughly 40-60% each day, with the greatest coverage
  during the heat of the day. 

- Typical summertime heat and humidity is forecast through next
  week, through heat index values will climb to around 100
  degrees Friday and Saturday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Weak surface high pressure will keep forcing for thunderstorm
development to a minimum today and Friday, with any storm
initiation occurring along remnant outflows or moisture
gradients. This will keep PoPs in the schc range (sub-25%)
through the rest of the work week. Greatest coverage of storms 
today looks again to be across west KY and southwest IN. On 
Friday, storms may be more plentiful over southeast MO. Lesser 
storm coverage will allow for warmer temperatures, reaching 
88-92F today and 90-94F on Friday. Heat index values Friday will
top out around 100F. 

A transition to a more unsettled pattern will begin Saturday as
frontal boundary moves into the region from the NW and stalls.
This will result in chc to likely PoPs this weekend (40-60%) 
with the greatest coverage during the heat of the afternoon. 
High temperatures Saturday will again reach the lower 90s in 
most spots with heat index values around 100F. Sunday will be a 
bit cooler, only in the upper 80s due to increasing cloud 
coverage. Main thunderstorm risks this weekend will be from 
localized downburst winds and spotty flash flooding concerns 
from heavy downpours. 

Unsettled weather looks to continue into most of next week as an
active W-NW H5 flow pattern arrives. This will bring a series of
disturbances through the region. The details remain murky, so 
as it stands there is a daily chance of thunderstorms (40-60%), 
again with the greatest coverage in the afternoon hours. 
Depending on the specifics in the mesoscale, some periods of 
possible organized convection or more widespread flooding cannot
be ruled out. Stay tuned for updates. Temperatures will be near
to slightly below normal due to cloud and precipitation 
coverage. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Widespread fog is expected overnight, with IFR or LIFR
restrictions forecast between 07-13z at most terminals outside
of EVV. Fog will begin to lift during the 12-13z window, with
SCT diurnal CU afterward. Thunderstorm chances are too low to
mention at this time, but could be added if confidence grows in
the next forecast package. Calm winds will become light and
variable after daybreak.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS

194 
FXUS63 KJKL 102022
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
422 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally dense fog is expected to form overnight, especially in
  valleys, potentially impacting visibility for the Friday morning
  commute.

- High temperatures will be near normal through the week though
  they may trend above normal over the weekend and early next
  week. 

- Chances for showers and storms persist through the upcoming
  weekend and into week, mainly during each afternoon and 
  evening. These chances peak Sunday to Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms (often referred to as 
garden variety for their disorganized nature) continue across 
parts of central/eastern Kentucky at mid-afternoon. This activity 
is occurring as a dampening upper-level trough, extending 
southward from Quebec, crosses the Central Appalachians. This
convection is also generally ahead of the last associated weak 
mid-upper level vorticity max, which is passing over Central 
Kentucky. Meanwhile, there is little in the way of discernible 
features in the surface pressure field as it remains dominated by 
mesoscale diurnal and convective effects. A stalled frontal 
boundary well north of the Ohio River has little direct impact on 
our sensible weather. PWATs have dropped sharply since yesterday 
and now range from 1.4 to 1.6 inches while flow in the 850-300 mb 
layer favors cell motions to the east at about 10 to 15 kts, 
limiting hydrologic concerns to very isolated poor-drainage/urban 
ponding and elevated small stream flows in locations affected by 
the most persistent convection. MLCAPE is modest around 1,000 to 
1,500 J/kg and shear is minimal, minimizing the severe weather 
concern. Temperatures are seasonable, ranging from the mid 70s in 
areas recently affected by convection to the mid 80s where 
sunshine has been more prevalent.

As the trough and its associated vorticity energy slowly slide 
eastward, low to mid-level heights will begin to rise as weak 
subsidence leads to a mid-level capping. This will cause showers 
and thunderstorm coverage to gradually wane through the remainder 
of the afternoon and evening and actually allow a weak tongue of 
high pressure to build along the Central and Southern Appalachian 
Mountains tonight. The combination of clearing skies, light winds,
and ample lingering low-level moisture will set the stage for 
efficient radiation fog formation. Locally dense fog is not out of
the question as nighttime minimum temperatures are forecast to 
fall 2+ degrees below crossover temperatures in many areas. On 
Friday, heights continue to rise (aside from a weak upper level 
perturbation in the afternoon) while surface ridging slides a 
little further east ahead of the next weak upper level trough 
approaching from the Central Plains. Limited deep convection is 
possible again on Friday afternoon/early evening with the passing 
disturbance and differential heating. However, lean CAPE profiles 
and minimal shear will keep any activity sporadic and weak. After 
bottoming out between 1.2 and 1.4 inches tonight/early Friday, 
PWATs will again creep higher amidst southwesterly return flow, 
likely exceeding 1.5 inches toward dawn on Saturday.

In sensible terms, look for leftover showers and thunderstorms to
dissipate heading through the evening. Partly cloudy skies yield 
to areas of fog overnight. Some of that fog could become locally 
dense, especially in valleys. Low temperatures are forecast to be 
in the mid to upper 60s. On Friday, mostly sunny skies might be 
interrupted in some locations by isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will be seasonably hot with highs 
from 85 to 90 degrees. Friday night is shaping up similar to the 
prior night with any late-day convection giving way to mostly 
clear skies and areas of fog overnight. The fog is likely to be 
more confined to the river valleys than tonight. Look for Friday 
Night temperatures to settle back into the mid 60s to near 70 
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025

The period is expected to begin with upper level ridging centered 
near the souther FL vicinity and extending west into the Gulf as 
well as northeast to near Bermuda and further into the Atlantic. 
Some guidance, particularly GFS has a weak disturbance/shortwave over 
Southern Appalachians with another shortwave moving off the eastern 
seaboard. An upper level low is expected to be moving from Manitoba 
into Ontario at that point with troughing south into portions of the 
Central Conus with another center of upper level ridging off the 
coast of southern CA. Another trough in the Gulf of AK vicinity to 
off the coast of BC should be in place at that time as well. At the 
surface, high pressure is expected to initially be centered over the 
Appalachians with a wavy frontal zone to its north from the mid 
Atlantic coast into upstate NY and the eastern Great Lakes west to a 
sfc low pressure system preceding the troughing over the Central 
Conus. 

Saturday to Saturday night, the shortwave trough should rotate 
across Ontario to Quebec and the Great Lakes and into the Lower OH 
Valley with a secondary shortwave moving across the Northern Plains 
to the upper MS Valley and nearing the western Great Lakes. The 
first shortwave trough should cross eastern KY on Sunday with the 
secondary shortwave approaching from the west late Sunday to Sunday 
night. Over the weekend upper level ridging should strengthen and 
build further into the western Conus while upper ridging is expected 
to also build over the Gulf into the Southeastern Conus. The 
previously mentioned secondary shortwave should cross the area Monday 
to Monday evening with upper ridging building building north into 
the mid MS Valley and Lower OH Valley. The two shortwaves tracking 
across the area over the weekend into early next week should allow 
for a cold front to gradually move across the Great Lakes and into 
the OH Valley and eventually south of the OH River by Sun night to 
Monday. This frontal zone should cross eastern KY Monday to Monday 
evening. 

Daytime heating over the weekend and into early next week should 
allow for a general diurnal peak in convection each day. Coverage on 
Saturday with only slight height falls or neutral height tendencies 
at 500 mb should generally be near climatology and less than the 
Sunday to Monday period. With the shortwave troughs and then the 
frontal zone to move across eastern KY, convection at night is 
also probable Saturday night and Sunday night and Monday evening
into Monday night. Of the three days, Saturday should be the 
warmest with highs forecast slightly above normal. A few of the 
deeper eastern valleys should reach the low 90s with JKL and LOZ 
probable to fall a degree or two short of the 90 degree mark. A 
stronger storm or two with a wind threat can be ruled out over 
the weekend or Monday and typical of July, storms should contain 
torrential downpours. Pending the degree of clearing, valley fog 
should be a fixture in several locations each night to early 
morning.

Tuesday to Tuesday night, recent guidance generally has narrow upper 
level ridging building north and northeast across parts of the OH 
Valley and Appalachians with the axis of upper ridging remaining 
from the Arklatex region across eastern KY toward the mid Atlantic 
states into Wednesday. Recent GFS runs have an upper low/trough 
moving west into parts of the Southeast Coast and eastern Gulf of 
Mexico from Tuesday to Wednesday while the ECMWF holds onto higher 
heights from parts of the Southeast into the TN and OH Valleys 
including eastern KY. During the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe, 
upper level ridging is progged to remain centered to the south and 
southeast of Bermuda with another upper ridge extending into 
southwestern Conus and parts of the Pacific. Guidance continues to 
have an upper level low rotating across the northern portions of 
Hudson Bay during the Tuesday to Wednesday period with an associated 
shortwave trough rotating across parts of the Canadian Prairies and 
Northern to Central Plains and into the Upper MS Valley from Tuesday 
to Wednesday night. This shortwave trough per the consensus of 
guidance should rotate into the Great Lakes to end the period. In 
advance of this shortwave trough, a weaker shortwave may also pass 
to the north and northwest of the OH Valley from parts of the 
Central Plains to the Great Lakes. As noted earlier the axis of 
upper level ridging should be over or west of eastern KY for Tuesday 
to Thursday with the axis shifting east and southeast of eastern KY 
as the period end with a trend of falling heights as well. Sfc high 
pressure should also be in place from the Appalachians to the 
southeast during this timeframe with a boundary that will have moved 
south of eastern KY to begin the week becoming diffuse. A cold front 
in advance of the 500 mb shortwave that approaches late in the 
period is expected to approach the OH Valley to end the period as 
well. 

For Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, temperatures should climb a few 
degrees above normal for Tuesday into Wednesday with Wednesday 
currently expected to be the warmer of the two days, before slightly 
lower Max T for Thursday. Ridging for Tuesday to Wednesday should 
limit coverage of convection at an extent with some degree of 
capping. However, isolated to lower end scattered pops near 
climatology from the NBM seem reasonable at this time though one or 
both days could be dry in all areas pending the degree of capping. 
Height falls and the approaching front should promote greater 
coverage of convection to end the period on Thursday. Following 
anticipated rain earlier in the week, valley fog is anticipated each 
night to early morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025

Generally VFR conditions are noted at TAF issuance, though 
briefly worse conditions are occurring under scattered diurnally-
driven pop-up convection. Once that convection dissipates this 
evening, expect good clearing tonight which will allow for areas 
of BR/FG to develop, likely dropping to IFR/LIFR visibility or 
worse at valley terminals, though significant reductions will be 
possible at the TAF sites as well. Winds will generally be under 
10 kts through the period, except locally stronger and erratic 
near thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEERTSON