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LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 1:07 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

316 
FXUS64 KLIX 171907
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
107 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Areas of dense fog will develop in the early morning hours on
  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.  
 
- Above normal temperatures expected through Saturday.

- A cold front will bring higher rain chances to the area on
  Friday.  

- Hazardous marine conditions due to stronger southerly winds on
  Thursday and Friday.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Very little change in the day to day weather conditions are
expected through the short term period as a broad deep layer ridge
axis continues to dominate the Gulf South. Temperatures will
remain well above average with readings running around 10 degrees
above normal through Wednesday night. The deep layer ridging will
keep a strong mid-level capping inversion in place, and this will
prohibit any rainfall from forming. However, there will continue
to be a persistent light onshore flow regime that will allow for
high humidity values in the low levels. As a result, some
scattered strato-cumulus development can be expected each day.
This strato-cumulus will form as an extensive morning fog bank
mixes out with daytime heating each morning. 

In terms of the fog threat, conditions are extremely favorable 
for widespread fog to form across much of the area in the early 
morning hours tonight, tomorrow night, and Wednesday night. Fog 
probabilities remain very high through the period and confidence 
is also high that more fog will form. These conditions include, 
the upper level ridge over the region, strong radiational cooling,
light winds, and the high low level humidity. The fog will turn 
dense at times, and a dense fog advisory will likely be needed 
again for tomorrow morning over portions of the area. Any burning 
of agricultural fields could produce very isolated areas of 
superfog and near zero visibility each morning as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday night) 
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The long term model guidance is in remarkably good agreement and
overall ensemble spread is on the lower end as move into the
latter part of the workweek and upcoming weekend. This lends
higher confidence to the overall forecast. Thursday will be a day
of transition with stronger winds developing as the pressure
gradient over the area increases in response to a low pressure
system deepening over the Southern Plains. Southerly winds should
increase to 10 to 15 mph by the afternoon hours. Temperatures will
also remain well above average on Thursday with readings easily
rising into the lower 80s. By Thursday night, there are
indications that weak region of increased upper level forcing will
form beneath an increasingly difluent flow pattern aloft.
Additionally, a plume of deeper moisture will feed into the region
with PWATS rising to around the 90th percentile. With favorable 
forcing parameters in place, some scattered shower activity should
form Thursday night over the area. Fortunately, despite the high 
PWATS, a heavy rainfall signal is not in place due to a lack of 
decent thermodynamic support. Any showers will be light and 
transient in nature through the overnight hours. 

Friday will be the primary rain day as the shortwave energy in the
Southern Plains passes through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A
trailing trough axis will slide through the area and serve as a
focusing mechanism for showers and a few weak and low topped
thunderstorms throughout the day on Friday. PWATS will remain in
the 90th percentile range for this time of year, so a few brief
heavy downpours could occur with any of these weaker storms that
form. However, the lack of sustained updraft development due to
the limited instability will limit heavy rain potential with most
areas seeing less than an inch of rainfall from the event on 
Friday. Temperatures will remain above average with highs once 
again climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s as winds remain 
from the south.

Well behind the main trough axis and overall rain event, the
trailing cold front will finally push through Friday night. A few
showers and storms could fire up along the front itself, but the
lack of instability will greatly limit overall convective
development. At the same time, some weak cold air advection will 
take hold behind the front. Lows will remain very mild Friday 
night, but daytime highs will be around 5 degrees cooler on 
Saturday. These values will still be above average, but not quite 
as extreme as the temperatures experienced the past several days. 
Additionally, a surge of drier air aloft will feed into the region
and PWATS will fall back to the normal levels seen for this time 
of year. Further drying in the mid and upper levels is expected by
Sunday as an upper level ridge axis begins to build in from the 
west. PWATS will fall to around the 25th percentile and this will 
allow for mainly clear skies and dry conditions as we close out 
the weekend. Temperatures will also continue to cool as the 
northwest flow regime aloft ushers in somewhat cooler air. 
Temperatures will fall to more normal readings for mid to late 
November with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s and
50s. Overall, a fairly pleasant weekend is anticipated once the 
front clears the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Another round of dense fog will be the primary concern as
conditions remain extremely favorable for fog and low stratus to
form at all of the terminals. The fog and stratus will tend to
develop after 06z and linger through 15z before gradually
clearing. Prevailing IFR conditions can be expected when the fog
and stratus is occurring. Before the fog forms and after the fog
clears, prevailing VFR conditions can be expected.  PG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1218 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Through Wednesday, a prevailing light southeast flow of less than
10 knots and seas of less than 2 feet can be expected as the
region remains on the western periphery of a broad surface high
pressure system. By Thursday, the pressure gradient over the Gulf
waters will begin to increase as a low pressure system deepens
over Texas. This low will pass to the north of the area on Friday
and push a weak cold front through the waters. Stronger southerly
winds of at least 15 to 20 knots and potentially up to 25 knots
will impact the open Gulf waters as this system moves through.
Seas will also rise to 5 to 7 feet in response to the stronger 
winds. Fortunately, a strong surge of colder air will not
accompany the front, so winds will weaken back below 15 knots as
they shift to the west and northwest on Saturday.  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0 
BTR  62  83  61  83 /   0   0   0   0 
ASD  59  79  58  80 /   0   0   0   0 
MSY  64  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0 
GPT  62  75  61  77 /   0   0   0   0 
PQL  58  77  58  78 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG

Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 17, 1:07 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

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PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 12:56 PM EST

819 
FXUS61 KPBZ 271756
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1256 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow showers and flurries will continue through Friday for
most of the area but chances for heavier snow and accumulations
in northwest PA increase tonight into Friday morning. Dry
weather and continuation of seasonably cool temperature is
favored Saturday before the next wintry mix system, featuring
snow changing over to rain, arrives Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold and gusty with scattered snow showers and flurries
- Lake enhanced snow bands developing north of I-80
---------------------------------------------------------------

Upper troughing over the eastern Great Lakes region will subtle
changes in its shape tonight into Friday that begins to shift it
east while slowly introducing more NW boundary layer flow 
across the forecast region. Prior to this wind shift 
development, strong cold advection plus diurnal mixing is 
helping to squeeze out areas of flurries to light snow showers 
this afternoon. Short lake fetch and some wind shear should also
limit occurrence of heavy snow along the northern fringes of 
Mercer/Venango/Forest counties, keeping initial accumulations 
through 7pm to less than 2" (favoring grassy/elevated surfaces) 
and impacts low.

The introduction of more northwest flow with some mid-level
vorticity advection, especially after 7pm, is likely to increase
heavy snow shower with localized snow band potential through
Friday morning. Accumulations and impacts, which would be driven
by 0.5-1"/hr snowfall rates in a consistent snow band or brief
heavy snow that drops rapidly drops visibility, may be 
initially seen along/north of the I-80 corridor (thru midnight).
Those risks may expand thereafter to just south of the I-80 
corridor as well as the higher terrain E/S of Pittsburgh (~ 
midnight through 10am). However, current trends plus available 
modeling leaves uncertainty in the duration of a heavy snow band
over a single duration and the exact positioning of that band 
due to the effects of wind shear and lesser lake fetches. Thus, 
messaging remains the same highlighting approximately Advisory 
level accumulations (~3-5") in Mercer/Venango/Forest Counties 
but potential for a localized maxima that exceeds warning 
amounts (6-8") if banding is persistent. Additionally, there is 
potential (~40% probability) for more than 2" in eastern Tucker 
aided by some upslope flow, but limited areal coverage and 
uncertainty in consistency of snow showers precluded inclusion 
of this area in a Winter Weather Advisory at this time.

The rest of the region through this period will continue to see
the occasional light snow shower with gusty winds on the order
of 20 to 35 mph (slightly higher in elevated areas) into Friday
morning. Height rises as the upper trough begins shifting more
east with building surface high pressure will work to erode snow
shower coverage (and intensity) through Friday afternoon,
resulting in diminished impacts by Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Cold temperatures continue
- Dry by Saturday morning
- Snow returns Saturday night

----------------------------------------------------------------

Dry conditions resume overnight Saturday as surface high 
pressure builds back in and h500 heights rise 16-18dm by 
Saturday. Dry conditions will be relatively short-lived though 
with the ridge axis east of the region, an upper trough digs 
across the Central CONUS, and the associated sfc low approaches 
the Upper Ohio Valley region later in the day.

The deepening sfc low is forecast to move out of the midwest 
and be over the northern Great Lakes by Sunday, and the increasing
moisture and ascent in warm advection, should result in snow 
overspreading the region later Saturday night. Probabilities for
an inch or two of snow are highest north and west of PGH as 
those areas should see enhanced lift under the left exit region 
of the upper jet.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Snow and rain for Sunday
- Generally dry Monday before unsettled weather returns by mid
  week
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The trough is progged to transition across the Upper Ohio 
Valley region on Sunday, as the associated sfc low pulls a cold 
front across the area. Snow should mix with and change to rain 
in warm advection ahead of the front, though there is still 
uncertainty in how strong the warm advection will be, and how 
far north this changeover would occur. The precipitation should 
end from W-E Sunday night after FROPA, though some snow could 
linger north of PIT as the flow turns NW off of the lakes. High 
pressure is expected to build in Monday, bringing a return to
dry weather.

The active pattern continues next week as a shortwave trough
transitions to the northeast east from the Central CONUS Monday
night into Tuesday, and a surface low develops near the Gulf 
Coast. This trough is expected to cross the region on Tuesday, 
as the surface low tracks along the coast. Rain and snow chances
return Monday night and Tuesday. Operational models differ on 
the amount of warm advection ahead of the trough, while 
ensembles indicate a colder solution with more snow as a precip 
type. Will maintain a mention of rain and snow in the forecast 
with the uncertainty at this time. Temperatures will generally 
remain below average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong cold advection underneath upper level troughing will
support fairly persistent low VFR stratocu through the TAF
period with potential for diurnally driven mixing to result in
light snow showers.

Confidence is fairly high that veering of the 850mb flow to a
slightly more NW direction will not occur until after 21z. As
that component more develops, lake enhanced showers are likely
to grow in coverage to offer periodic bouts of generally light
snow at most regional airports through Friday morning. This
veering may also expand the southern reach of high MVFR cigs
during the overnight period, though fluctuations between MVFR 
to VFR cigs could still occur.

For FKL/DUJ (and lesser extent, BVI) in northwest PA, lake 
effect bands may develop at any point after 21z that could 
rapidly drop visibility below 1 mile and exhibit snowfall rates 
around 0.5"/hr but upwards of 1"/hr. Confidence is lower on 
whether this band will fall over either terminal AND whether it 
will persist for a long duration; additionally, it is possible 
the band experiences too much shear and ends being on/off heavy 
snow showers versus a consistent band.

Outlook... 
Scattered generally light snow showers that could still offer
brief visibility/ceiling drops will slowly taper off through
Friday evening due to height rises and increasing subsidence.
Save for FKL/DUJ (where MVFR cigs may linger into Saturday
morning), VFR is highly likely at the rest of the area terminals
by 18z Friday.

The next low pressure system arrives early Sunday morning,
creating widespread precipitation chances with high confidence
on MVFR to IFR restrictions through the day. Thermal profiles
suggest initial precipitation may fall as snow and have some
potential for accumulation (favoring ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ) before
warm advection aides in a changeover to rain.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for PAZ007>009.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...WM/88
AVIATION...Frazier

Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 12:56 PM EST

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IWX continues Storm Warning for Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI, New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI [LM] till Nov 26, 10:00 PM EST

565 
WHUS73 KIWX 261947
MWWIWX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
247 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

LMZ043-046-270400-
/O.CON.KIWX.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-251127T0300Z/
/O.CON.KIWX.GL.W.0016.251127T0300Z-251128T0600Z/
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
247 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, west winds 30 to 40 knots with 
  gusts up to 50 knots and waves 12 to 18 feet. For the Gale 
  Warning, northwest winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 45 
  knots and waves 12 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...Michigan City IN to St Joseph MI.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, until 10 PM EST this evening. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST 
  Friday.

* IMPACTS...Storm force winds and hazardous waves will capsize 
  or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Source: IWX continues Storm Warning for Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI, New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI [LM] till Nov 26, 10:00 PM EST

---------------
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EVANSVILLE IN Nov 25 Climate Report: High: 59 Low: 53 Precip: 1.12" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

356 
CDUS43 KPAH 252232
CLIEVV

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
432 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025

...................................

...THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 25 2025...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0425 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1896 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         59    157 PM  73    1908  52      7       64       
  MINIMUM         53    822 AM  -3    1950  34     19       41       
  AVERAGE         56                        43     13       53     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  TODAY            1.12          2.99 2010   0.14   0.98     0.05     
  MONTH TO DATE    3.04                      3.40  -0.36     5.03     
  SINCE SEP 1     12.99                     10.10   2.89    10.05     
  SINCE JAN 1     54.54                     43.42  11.12    42.64     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  TODAY            0.0                                       0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.3                                        T       
  SINCE JUL 1      0.3                                        T       
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    13   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (220)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    16   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (240)       


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST   100                                                        
 LOWEST     87                                                        

..........................................................


THE EVANSVILLE IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   52        78      1965                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   33        12      1977                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
NOVEMBER 25 2025......SUNRISE   642 AM CST   SUNSET   432 PM CST     
NOVEMBER 26 2025......SUNRISE   643 AM CST   SUNSET   432 PM CST     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: EVANSVILLE IN Nov 25 Climate Report: High: 59 Low: 53 Precip: 1.12" Snow: 0.0" Snow Depth: 0"

---------------
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JKL issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Nov 26, 4:32 AM EST

790 
FLUS43 KJKL 260932
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-104-106>114-119-120-271200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Jackson-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Martin-Pike-
432 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A strong cold front will bring west to northwest wind gusts upwards
of 30 to 35 mph through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

KYZ068-079-080-083>088-115>118-271200-
Rockcastle-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
432 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

VORST

Source: JKL issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at Nov 26, 4:32 AM EST

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