IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 1:22 AM EDT533
FXUS63 KIND 290522
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
122 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures through Friday
- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, heavy rain possible
- Warming trend possible for the first week of August
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Forecast is in good shape this evening. While actual cloud cover has
diminished, elevated smoke continues across the area. With the
elevated smoke continuing through the night, upped sky cover some to
account for this.
Slowed down arrival of drier air south based on latest observational
trends. In the north, where drier air is arriving, temperatures have
cooled quickly. Adjusted temperatures there as needed.
Tweaked low temperatures down in favored cold areas. Otherwise, the
forecast low temperatures look good given expected conditions.
Can't rule out some ground fog near sunrise, but with drier air
moving in and some winds lingering, feel odds are too low to mention.
&&
.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Low pressure over eastern Canada, which was the cause of yesterday's
storms, continues to move away from the Great Lakes region. Surface
high pressure is now building in from the northwest, with a cooler
and drier air mass filtering into Indiana. Dew points have slowly
been falling through the day.
Aloft, troughing is located over the northeast with broad ridging
over the Plains and intermountain west. Though northwesterly flow
persists aloft, surface high pressure should keep things quiet this
week. Near normal temperatures are expected through Friday. From
Friday onward, ensemble guidance shows a shortwave trough diving
southeastward within the jet stream. Overall, the jet stream is
rather weak and most guidance shows this system becoming cut off
from the main flow.
Guidance can struggle in situations with a cut off low embedded
within a weak steering flow. Despite this, most guidance shows this
system to some extent over the weekend. Timing and location vary,
but the signal is there. As such, we will carry chance to likely
PoPs. A lot of details still need to be ironed out, however, given
residual variability within ensemble guidance.
Beyond this weekend, ensemble guidance continues to diverge and
shows no strong signal for ridging or troughing. The mean 500mb flow
resides well to our north, however, so with the weekend upper low
dissipating a trend towards warmer temperatures is favored for the
first week of August.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Impacts:
- Low probability patchy fog tonight
Discussion:
Elevated smoke along with a few cirrus will continue through the
night, followed by a few cumulus on Wednesday.
The main question continues to be if any patchy ground fog
develops early this morning. Drier air moving in along with some
light winds continuing should lower the odds for fog enough to
leave mention out of the TAFs. However, can't completely rule it
out.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
AVIATION...Updike
DISCUSSION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 29, 1:22 AM EDT---------------
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