PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:47 AM EDT692
FXUS61 KPBZ 110547
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
147 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England continues dry and cool conditions
through Saturday. Rain chances rise Saturday night and remain
through the early week especially across the eastern ridges as a
weakening Great Lakes low combines with a developing coastal
storm.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Increasing cloud cover and southerly flow will lead to warmer
overnight temperatures than previous nights.
---------------------------------------------------------------
An upper level situated just north of Michigan will shift
southeast overnight and draw a narrow column of mid-level
moisture into the forecast region. Along with a weak jet streak
aloft, each will foster increasingly broken cloud cover but lack
any precipitation chances. Add in subtle southerly surface flow
ahead of a cold front, and the result is moderation of overnight
temperature compared to previous nights. Low readings are
expected to be near to just slightly below average (for
reference, the average low temperature at the Pittsburgh
International Airport is 45 degrees).
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Slight warming trend and dry conditions through Saturday.
- Rainfall through Monday favors northern and eastern areas.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Our pattern begins to shift as we move through the day Saturday. At
the upper levels the closed upper low from the Great Lakes slides
over central PA and begins to open up as it interacts with the
closed upper low over the Southeast. At the SFC, a Great Lakes low
and its associated cold front begin to drown out and transfer energy
to a budding coastal low climbing the Eastern Seaboard. The coastal
low slowly moves north and east hindered by stubborn high pressure
Sun-Mon.
These interactions look to work in tandem to lower rain chances
across our region as the highest POPs and rainfall totals shift
eastwards over the mountains nearer the developing coastal low. Rain
chances peak across our northern tier counties late Saturday as the
Great Lakes low weakens (near 30%) and then across our eastern ridge
counties Sunday and Sunday night as energy transfers to the coastal
low (40-60%). POPs in the Pittsburgh Metro peak between 25-40% on
Sunday and quickly fall off the further west you go. At this point
it looks as though northern and eastern counties see the highest
chances for showers during this time. Rainfall totals are likely to
be lower across our area, with most of the rain falling across our
eastern counties (0.25-0.50") and then a very sharp gradient
immediately west as totals decline to a few hundredths across the
remainder of western PA. Instability is quite low but there could be
a couple of rumbles of thunder Saturday night mainly north and east
of Pittsburgh as the Great Lakes upper low slides through the area.
High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in the middle 60s
across the north with more stout cloud cover closer to the
approaching trough and ramping up to the low 70s as you move farther
south. The gradient in temperatures becomes more east-west oriented
by Sunday as the upper trough settles across Pennsylvania. High
temperatures Sunday and Monday are expected to be near normal
(mainly 60s) across western PA but slightly above average (upper
60s/lower 70s) across eastern OH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry/warm weather continues into Tuesday
- Uncertainty builds mid-week with large-scale pattern
-------------------------------------------------------------------
A persistent ridge axis east of the Rocky Mountains, reaching
into the Ohio River Valley, will bring dry weather and warmer-
than-average temperatures through Tuesday.
By mid-week, it remains uncertain if a trough will form over the
Great Lakes or if the ridge will stay, and long-range ensemble
temperatures indicate about a 10-degree spread between the 25th
and 75th percentile. Should a trough pattern dominate, freezing
conditions could return, accompanied by lake-enhanced
precipitation under a northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through most of the day. Mid-level
clouds in the 6-8kft range will increase for FKL/DUJ by sunrise
as a weak cold front crosses the area, coincident with decaying
low pressure digging across the eastern Great Lakes. Mid
clouds should then spread farther southeast after sunrise.
Broad upper level ascent could result in a few scattered
showers around FKL/DUJ after 11z, but given the lower
probability and scattered nature, kept a PROB30 group. These
shouldn't bring much in the way of restrictions with a dry sub-
cloud layer making it tough for visibility-reducing showers.
The best forcing should remain north of the remainder of the
terminals and preclude shower mention elsewhere. Light southerly
wind will veer more northerly through the morning, becoming more
northeasterly by the evening.
A coastal low tracking up the eastern seaboard will return
restrictions and potential for showers Sunday morning. There
will likely be an east-west cutoff of to the restrictions with
the highest probability lying farther east, but some uncertainty
exists with how far west sufficient moisture exists.
.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions and shower chances will likely linger through much
of Sunday and into Monday as the coastal low lifts north.
Probabilities for both ceiling restrictions and showers will
remain highest farther east with an east/west cutoff likely.
High pressure will build back into the region midweek.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger/AK
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/AK
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley/MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 11, 1:47 AM EDT---------------
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