ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 6:27 AM EST010
FXUS61 KILN 281127
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
627 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of rain and snow will taper off this morning as a low
pressure system moves off to our northeast. A cooler airmass
will settle into the region behind the low, with below normal
temperatures expected through the remainder of the holiday
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The surface low pressure system currently over far eastern
Kentucky will lift quickly off to the northeast through the
rest of this morning. Widespread pcpn associated with the low
is continuing across our area attm. As the low levels continue
to cool, pcpn has been slowly mixing with and/or changing over
to snow for areas mainly to the northwest of I-71. Web cams
across the area are showing some light snow accumulations on
grassy areas in a few spots, particularly in areas between
Richmond and Dayton. With air temperatures just above freezing
and road temperatures even warmer, most road surface still
appear to be just wet.
Based on current radar trends, the back edge of the pcpn should
move into northwest portions of our area in the next hour or
two and then progress southeast across the remainder of our
area through mid morning. We will likely see a continued
transition over to more of rain/snow mix and snow from the
northwest through that period, but expect any additional
accumulations to be minor and mainly on grassy surfaces.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies through the remainder of
the day with afternoon temperatures mostly in the lower 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cyclonic low level flow will persist tonight into Friday as
some sheared out mid level energy rotates down across the upper
Ohio Valley. This could lead to a few light rain/snow showers
or sprinkles/flurries tonight into Friday, with the best chance
for this being across our far northern and eastern areas.
Cooler air will continue to spill into the region. Lows tonight
will be in the mid 20s with highs on Friday ranging from the
upper 20s northwest to the mid 30s in the southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Nearly the entire long term period will be featured by much below
normal temperatures with several opportunities for light snow or
snow flurries. Temperatures begin to rebound closer to normal by the
middle of next week.
A deep and expansive trough remains established over the eastern
CONUS through the weekend and into early next week, ushering in the
coolest air since mid-February. High temperatures Saturday, Sunday,
and Monday have a high chance (80%-90%) of occurring below the normal
minimum temperature for this time of year. It should also be noted
that this cold air is being driven southeastward into the region,
meaning some wind will also accompany the colder air. Confidence is
high that wind chill values in the single digits are going to occur
during this period as well. Before discussing the slight temperature
rebound into early next week, there continues to be a potential for
light snow Saturday night, focused along and south of the Ohio River
region.
A weak shortwave moves through the base of the deep trough Saturday
night, providing enough upward lift to generate a band of light
snow. There will be a period of evaporation during the evening
hours, likely delaying the onset of any snow until sunset. Given the
cold temperatures at the surface and aloft, any snow that falls is
likely to accumulate. However, even with the cooler temperatures,
the favorable timing, and effective dendrite conditions, snowfall
amounts remain around an inch or less. These amounts are currently
focused across portions of southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and
northern Kentucky, but a dusting of snow is still not out of the
question as far north as Wilmington, Ohio. The highest likelihood
(40%-50%) for at least a half inch of snow is currently focused in
the Ohio River area and south toward Lexington, KY.
During the transition period early next week, the trough axis shifts
eastward, but the region remains within northwesterly upper level
flow. Weak lift and modest moisture supply the potential for
scattered snow showers Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, a stronger
low pressure moving into the Midwest and Great Lakes brings another
chance for precipitation, with precipitation type forecasts
currently made with low confidence.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The back edge of the pcpn is pushing east across the area this
morning and should be through the TAF sites within the next
hour or so, although some MVFR vsbys may linger at the northern
TAF sites a bit longer due to some br. Otherwise, IFR cigs
across the region this morning will lift into MVFR and then VFR
this afternoon into this evening. A weak upper level
disturbance could lead to a few showers later tonight but
chances appear low enough to leave any mention out of the TAFs
for now.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 6:27 AM EST---------------
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