JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 4:38 AM EST920
FXUS63 KJKL 270938
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
438 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain is forecast to return this evening and linger into
Thanksgiving Day.
- Precipitation could briefly mix with or change to snow Thursday
night before ending with little or no accumulation anticipated.
- Another system is forecast to affect the area this weekend and
could bring light snow accumulation Saturday evening into Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1109 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Aside from blending in late evening obs, also pushed the onset of
precip potential slightly later for late Wed and Wed evening
based on latest model guidance.
UPDATE Issued at 736 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Early evening conditions were blended into the forecast without
any substantive changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Satellite imagery shows sunny skies across eastern Kentucky this
afternoon with just a few wispy high cirrus drifting from west to
east. In spite of the bright sun, temperatures are noticeably colder
behind last night's cold front, ranging in the mid/upper 40s
north of the Mountain Parkway and west of the Pottsville
Escarpment and in the lower/mid 50s further south and east. The
latest surface analysis shows an ~1025mb surface high pressure
situated over the mid-Mississippi Valley under quasi-zonal flow
aloft. A positively-tilted 500H trough axis extends from
Saskatchewan southeastward to off the coast of California.
The surface high crests over the Commonwealth this evening before
shifting off to our east later in the night. Meanwhile, a lee-side
surface low strengthens over northeast New Mexico ahead of the 500H
trough. The surface low tracks east to over Arkansas by Wednesday
evening and then northeastward along a baroclinic zone directly
across eastern Kentucky on Wednesday night. After initially
strong radiational cooling this evening under a robust subsidence
inversion, warm air/moisture advection high/mid-level cloud cover
will rapidly increase toward sunrise and continue to
thicken/lower during the day on Wednesday. Rain chances increase
slowly on Wednesday afternoon before ramping up quickly Wednesday
evening/night with the arrival and passage of the surface low. As
the low passes, southwesterly winds will shift northwesterly,
commencing another round of cold air advection. Storm total
rainfall amounts of 0.3 to 0.6 inches are currently expected.
In sensible terms, mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry air will
allow temperatures to drop quickly into the upper 20s to lower
30s through many of the valleys, with mid 20s in the normally
cooler sheltered hollows. Thermal belts will remain warmest with
lows primarily in the mid 30s. Fog formation is likely along the
main stem rivers and larger tributaries. High clouds will
increase rapidly toward sunrise and then continue to thicken and
lower through the day on Wednesday. The clouds will tend to be
thicker in the northwest, where there will also be a slight chance
(15-24%) chance of light rain during the midday and afternoon
hours. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to range from the
upper 40s in the northern portions of Fleming County (e.g.
Flemingsburg) up to near 60 in the deepest far southeastern
Valleys (e.g Whitesburg, Harlan, Middlesboro). Rain chances
spread to the remainder of the area Wednesday evening. The more
sustained rainfall moves into the I-64 corridor after 7 PM EST and
slowly sinks southeastward overnight, tapering in the I-64
corridor late. The previously noted northwest-southeast
temperature gradient will linger through the night such that upper
30s can be expected by dawn Thanksgiving Day in the far northwest
up to upper 40s in the deepest southeastern valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 433 AM EST WED NOV 27 2024
By 00Z Friday, a longwave trough sets up over Eastern Ontario, and
Western Quebec, just north of the Great Lakes. This trough looks to
stall out through the weekend. The cold front that will have brought
rain to Kentucky in the short term will continue to push east.
Meanwhile, a ridge anchored off British Columbia, will act as a
conveyer belt for quick hitting clipper systems that move
southeast from B.C. towards Kentucky before passing and lifting
northeast.
Some showers may linger Thursday evening into early Friday. Rain
may mix with snow across the high terrain of SE Kentucky before
sunrise. Little to no accumulating snowfall is expected. Lows will
drop to near freezing for much of the area.
Friday, expect cooler conditions with decreasing cloud cover, and
breezy winds. Highs will only reach the upper 30s to near 40 across
eastern Kentucky. The coldest air of the season will arrive Friday
night, with lows dropping into the teens.
Saturday, dry weather can be expected with increasing clouds heading
into the evening. Highs will be cooler, in the mid to upper 30s.
Another shortwave will follow the "conveyer belt" southeast out of
the Pacific Northwest, and arrive Saturday evening in the form of
snow showers. These showers are expected to slowly taper off Sunday
afternoon/evening from west to east. Model-model consistency has
been lacking a bit with this system so forecaster confidence is on
the lower end, however, minimal snowfall with potentially minor
impacts are currently expected. Lows Saturday night are expected
to range in the mid to lower 20s. Sunday, highs are forecasted in
the mid 30s with breezy winds and decreasing snow showers.
Monday, the stationary ridge-trough pattern begins to shift
eastward, with the trough over the Great Lakes flattening and
weakening some. Cluster analysis is fairly consistent in showing the
ridge in the western U.S. building, with a subtropical or Baja-Low
forming. Models are showing another shortwave ejecting out of the
Pacific Northwest which may produce more active weather Tuesday
evening into mid-week. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will continue
to remain in the 30s, with Tuesday looking slightly warmer, while
lows remain in the teens and low 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EST WED NOV 27 2024
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through 03Z with winds less
than 10KT from the east to south. There could be some valley fog
with reductions of MVFR or perhaps IFR visibility through 13Z.
Otherwise, rain should overspread the area late in the period,
with MVFR reductions to visibility or ceilings forecast over
western sections of the area between 03Z and 06Z.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 27, 4:38 AM EST---------------
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