JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 12:55 PM EST312
FXUS63 KJKL 261755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1255 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures are expected today, with temperatures
returning to near normal on Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
- Rain is forecast to return for Wednesday evening into
Thanksgiving Day.
- Precipitation could briefly mix with or change to snow Thursday
night before ending with little or no accumulation anticipated.
- Another system is forecast to affect the area this weekend and
bring light snow between Saturday evening and Sunday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Satellite shows stratocu deck gradually thinning and eroding from
the northwest. Expect this trend to continue through the day with
mostly sunny skies expected area-wide by late afternoon.
Temperatures will not warm much above current levels due to
ongoing low-level CAA. Expect afternoon highs in the mid/upper
40s north of the Mountain Parkway and primarily in the lower 50s
south.
UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Some patchy drizzle still lingers across the region. Hourly grids
have been updated to linger drizzle across the southeastern
portions of the area for the next couple of hours and to trend for
recent observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 442 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Early this morning, an upper level low was centered in the
northern MN/southwestern Ontario border area with an associated
mid and upper level trough southeast to eastern Great Lakes and
then south to the Appalachians to Lower MS Valley. Generally
zonal flow extended from much of the western Conus to the Central
Conus south and east of an upper level trough moving across the
Northwest Conus. At the surface, an area of low pressure was
centered over eastern Lake Ontario to a triple point over lake
Ontario with the trialing cold front that crossed eastern KY
during the late evening into the early part of the overnight
extending down the crest of the Appalachians to near the mouth of
the MS River. Meanwhile a ridge of sfc high pressure that
extended from MO to TX also extended into western KY at this time.
Behind the cold front upslope light rain/drizzle was occurring
northwest across eastern KY to near or even west of the
escarpment/northern portions of the Daniel Boone NF. Colder air
continued to advect into the region with temperatures generally
in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Today and tonight, the axis of the mid and upper level trough will
move east of the area this morning and low level winds will become
gradually more anticyclonic. This should result in the upslope
light rain and drizzle ending by around dawn with a gradual
decrease in low clouds as well as sfc high pressure builds quickly
in the Commonwealth and becomes centered over eastern KY this
evening. The sfc ridge will gradually shift east of eastern KY and
the Appalachians tonight. Meanwhile, as the Commonwealth gets
into zonal/west to west southwest flow aloft, the upper level
trough moving across the Northwest Conus is expected to reach the
Northern Plains/Dakotas to southwest Conus by late tonight. To
the lee of the Rockies, low pressure should begin to develop over
sections of OK/TX. Clouds will decrease through the day today as
sfc high pressure builds in, but with a colder airmass in place
temperatures will average a few degrees below normal. The patter
with the sfc high shifting east will favor a moderate ridge/valley
split for tonight with normally colder valley locations reaching
the mid to upper 20s with low to mid 30s elsewhere.
The mid and upper level troughing should work to the upper MS
Valley to Four Corners region on Wednesday, while the sfc low
treks east northeast to the vicinity of Memphis TN by the end of
the period. An increase in upper level moisture that will have
begun tonight across the Commonwealth will continue into Wednesday
with mid level moisture also increasing. Lower level moisture
will be a bit slower to increase outside of areas north of the Mtn
Pkwy and areas near Lake Cumberland with a weak downslope
component across southeastern KY on Wednesday. This may allow some
of the valley locations downwind of the VA border/Pine Mtn such
as Whitesburg and Harlan to reach near the 60 degree mark. A few
showers or spotty light rain could reach areas north of the Mtn
Parkway or nearer to Lake Cumberland by sunset on Wednesday
evening, but chances for rain will ramp up quickly early in the
long term period.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Wednesday, a shortwave dips southeast out of North Dakota. While
this is happening moisture will surge northward from the Gulf Of
Mexico, and a bigger, more defined trough with Pacific moisture will
encroach from the west. All of this will culminate into showers
developing Wednesday evening, continuing through Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will be around 40.
This trough will phase with another wave north of the Great Lakes to
form a high amplitude trough. This bigger trough will bring colder
air to the region heading into Thursday evening. Highs on
Thanksgiving are forecasted in the mid to upper 40s for most,
with lows Thursday night in the upper 20s to low 30s. High
terrain areas of southeastern Kentucky will likely see a mix of
rain and snow overnight. Elsewhere, showers will taper heading
into Friday morning. Little to no accumulating snow is currently
expected.
The front associated with this large trough will likely pass east of
the state by morning Friday. However, another shortwave coming out
of British Columbia looks to usher in colder temperatures through
next week. A quick round of snow showers Saturday evening into
Sunday may result. Light snow accumulation is currently expected.
Highs Friday are forecast in the upper 30s to near 40, with mid to
upper 30s Saturday, and highs near freezing for Sunday and Monday.
Low temperatures are expected to dip into the teens and low 20s
Friday night, mid to lower 20s Saturday night, and the teens Sunday
and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
The last of the MVFR stratocu deck is dissipating/exiting at TAF
issuance time, leaving VFR skies for the remainder of the TAF
period. High clouds will return tonight and lower during the day
on Wednesday as the next storm system and cold front approach. Fog
with visibility reductions into the MVFR or IFR range should
affect some valley locations between 04Z and 13Z, but no impacts
are anticipated at the TAF sites. West northwest winds around 5
kts or less this afternoon become light and variable tonight then
light southeasterly on Wednesday morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 12:55 PM EST---------------
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