ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 9:34 AM EST237
FXUS61 KILN 251434
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
934 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west and cross the area
this evening bringing rain to the area. High pressure will then
build in behind the front offering dry weather Tuesday into
early Wednesday. A storm system passing south of the region
Wednesday night into Thursday will bring the next round of
precipitation.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front stretching from near Chicago to St Louis at mid
morning will continue to progress east and be into eastern
Indiana by the end of the day. Showers will slowly increase in
coverage in the warm sector during the afternoon with guidance
trending towards higher coverage immediately ahead of the
front. Have bumped up temperatures just slightly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Mid level shortwave to pivot east thru the Great Lakes with a
surface cold front to pass east of the area by late evening.
Rainfall will end with the passage of the front.
Mid level flow becomes westerly with surface high pressure
starting to build in late tonight. Clouds will begin to erode
from the west toward daybreak Tuesday. Lows to range from the
lower 30s west to near 40 east.
Surface high pressure to offer abundant sunshine Tuesday with
some mid and high level clouds spilling in later in the day.
Highs to range near 40 northwest to 50 southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cool high pressure builds over the region Tuesday night, then
slowly pushes east of the area Wednesday.
A lower latitude disturbance moving from the southern Plains into
the Kentucky Valley will bring precipitation late Wednesday. Looking
at the ensembles, there is still much disagreement in the eventual
path of this Wednesday night/Thursday surface low. The EPS has come
into better agreement amongst its members on a surface low moving up
the Ohio or Kentucky Valley Wednesday night, leading to rain across
our southern counties with accumulating snow across the north.
However, the GEFS remains weaker and further south, with very little
snowfall associated with this system. Have nudged up snowfall in the
grids north of I-70 out of respect for a potential ECMWF/NAM
scenario. Will mention in the HWO due to possible holiday travel
impacts.
The longwave pattern will begin to change behind this system late
week. A trough will dig across the eastern United States while
ridging builds out West. It appears some weak, reinforcing shortwave
energy will dive southeast through the Great Lakes on both Thursday
night and also possibly Sunday night. This will produce a chance for
periodic light snow. Temperatures will be cold through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level ridge to slide east of the area this morning with the
flow backing southwesterly ahead of a trof developing into the
Plains. Surface low develops ahead of the progressive mid level
trof and tracks thru the Great Lakes tonight. Associated southward
trailing cold front to push thru the area this evening.
Pressure gradient will increase this morning as the cold front
starts to approach. Moisture increases with clouds thickening up
and lowering to MVFR by mid morning.
A few light rain showers or sprinkles can not be ruled out this
morning with a better coverage of rain showers developing
through the afternoon and continuing into this evening as the
cold front moves into the region. MVFR ceilings to drop to IFR
with MVFR to locally IFR vsbys possible at times with the pcpn
into this evening. Gusty southerly winds at 10-12 knots will
swing around to the west and northwest with gusts to 25 kts as
the front moves through this evening. Clouds will begin to lift
to MVFR late tonight and improving to VFR Tuesday morning.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to improve to VFR Tuesday morning. MVFR
to IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible Wednesday
night into Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 9:34 AM EST---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
