JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 3:59 AM EST443
FXUS63 KJKL 260859
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A series of cold fronts will then result in an overall downturn
in temperatures on average through the week.
- The first cold front will bring rain through tonight.
- More rain is forecast Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
Day, possibly mixing with or changing to snow Thursday night
before exiting the area Friday morning.
- Another system is forecast to affect the area this weekend and
bring light snow between Saturday evening and Sunday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 PM EST MON NOV 25 2024
A few thunderstorms are moving into the western portion of the
forecast area currently, embedded in the larger area of showers.
The 18Z NAM suggested thunder could occur further east into the
area than where it was previously included in the forecast, and
this update expands a slight chance over the entire area tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EST MON NOV 25 2024
Aside from a period of partly to mostly sunny skies immediately
northwest of Pine Mountain due to downslope flow earlier this
afternoon, cloudy skies have been prevalent across the Eastern
Kentucky Coalfields as well as the adjacent portions of the Outer
Bluegrass and Pennyrile. Thermometers have reached the warmest
level of the week at many locations, primarily lower to middle
60s. However, a few of the valley locales which northwest of Pine
Mountain likely attained the upper 60s as suggested by the 68F
reading measured at the Jackson 14 ESE Kentucky Mesonet site.
Outside of the more sheltered valley locales, southwesterly
breezes have also been noted today with peak gusts generally in
the 15 to 25 mph range. The latest surface analysis shows an ~1009
mb low centered just north of the Michigan/Indiana border while
its cold front trails southwestward through the Evansville Tri-
State area, Missouri Bootheel and on through the ArkLaTex. The
parent 500H trough's axis extends from Manitoba southward into the
Southern Plains.
This entire system will translate eastward through the short-term
period. Moisture surging northward in a warm air advection regime
ahead of the approaching boundary will lead to the development of
spotty showers/sprinkles over Central Kentucky and perhaps even
into eastern Kentucky over the next few hours. However the most
widespread rainfall will be convective and attend the cold frontal
boundary, reaching the I-64 corridor around 2z and reaching the
Kentucky-Virginia border around 5 to 6z. Widespread forecast event
rainfall totals range from 0.10 to 0.25 inch with isolated pockets
of up to 0.50 inch possible. Breezy conditions can also be
expected through the night with BUFKIT soundings supportive of
gusts to between 15 and 30 mph, initially out of the southwest
ahead of the front and then northwesterly behind the front. Once
the front clears the area after 7z, any leftover showers should
depart by around 12z. Lingering low-level moisture in a weak
CAA/northwest upslope flow will likely keep a low cloud deck over
most of the Coalfields into at least late morning Tuesday after
which drier air will finally work into the area through the
afternoon hours as high pressure builds in at the surface. The
high crests over the Central Appalachians on Tuesday night with a
subsidence inversion descending to within a few thousand feet of
the lower elevations and likely surfacing atop Big Black
Mountain.
In sensible terms, isolated/scattered showers and sprinkles late
this afternoon/early evening will yield to numerous/widespread
showers arriving from the northwest by 9 PM EST in the I-64
corridor and along the Virginia/Kentucky border by around 1 AM
EST. A rumble of thunder is possible with the strongest activity.
A majority of the shower activity tapers off in the I-64 corridor
by midnight and along the Virginia/Kentucky border by 4 AM EST. It
will be breezy with temperatures holding in the upper 50s to
lower 60s ahead front then dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s,
northwest to southeast by sunrise. Any leftover showers should be
gone by dawn. On Tuesday, clouds give way to increasing amounts
of sunshine, but temperatures will remain much cooler, only
reaching the upper 40s northwest of I-64 up to the mid 50s in the
deepest valleys of the Upper Cumberland. A clear and frosty cold
night follows for most locations on Tuesday night with lows
ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. A few mid 20s readings
cannot be ruled out in the coldest sheltered hollows, while the
thermal belts should remain mildest, bottoming out in the mid
30s.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Wednesday, a shortwave dips southeast out of North Dakota. While
this is happening moisture will surge northward from the Gulf Of
Mexico, and a bigger, more defined trough with Pacific moisture will
encroach from the west. All of this will culminate into showers
developing Wednesday evening, continuing through Thursday. Lows
Wednesday night will be around 40.
This trough will phase with another wave north of the Great Lakes to
form a high amplitude trough. This bigger trough will bring colder
air to the region heading into Thursday evening. Highs on
Thanksgiving are forecasted in the mid to upper 40s for most,
with lows Thursday night in the upper 20s to low 30s. High
terrain areas of southeastern Kentucky will likely see a mix of
rain and snow overnight. Elsewhere, showers will taper heading
into Friday morning. Little to no accumulating snow is currently
expected.
The front associated with this large trough will likely pass east of
the state by morning Friday. However, another shortwave coming out
of British Columbia looks to usher in colder temperatures through
next week. A quick round of snow showers Saturday evening into
Sunday may result. Light snow accumulation is currently expected.
Highs Friday are forecast in the upper 30s to near 40, with mid to
upper 30s Saturday, and highs near freezing for Sunday and Monday.
Low temperatures are expected to dip into the teens and low 20s
Friday night, mid to lower 20s Saturday night, and the teens Sunday
and Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2024
Mainly MVFR and IFR conditions were present at the start of the
period across the area with a few pockets of VFR ahead of the
showers in southeastern KY. Lines of showers were moving east
across the area along and near a cold front. As these pass,
reductions to MVFR and in many cases a few hours of IFR is
anticipated as well. Southwest winds were present ahead of the
front in southeastern sections of the area with west to northwest
winds behind the front, with gusts to around or in excess of 20KT
in some cases. The showers will taper off overnight after frontal
passage, from northwest to southeast through 11Z. MVFR or IFR
conditions before a return to VFR from northwest to southeast
during the 14Z to 18Z timeframe. Winds will generally be 10KT or
less behind the front from the northwest or west as gusts decrease
toward 12Z
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 3:59 AM EST---------------
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