PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 1:16 PM EST416
FXUS61 KPBZ 241816
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
116 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances return Monday and Monday night, followed by rain
and snow on Thanksgiving and much colder and unsettled weather
heading into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and mostly cloudy.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moisture locked under a temperature inversion will be slow to
erode, though some partial clearing is expected later this
afternoon as the high builds in. High temperatures are expected
to be near seasonable levels. Dry weather will continue tonight
as high pressure tracks across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain returns Monday and Monday night with a cold front
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Flat upper level ridging, ahead of an approaching central CONUS
trough, will maintain dry weather through most of Monday
morning as the surface high slides eastward.
The trough will continue to advance eastward on Monday, as
surface low pressure develops across the Great Lakes region. The
low is expected to track through southern Ontario Monday
evening and overnight, pulling a cold front across the region.
Rain chances will escalate through the afternoon and evening as
moisture and ascent increase in southwest flow ahead of the
front.
Rain will continue until the front completes its passage Monday
night. Scattered areas of rain and snow in cold advection behind
the front, mainly along and north of the I-80 corridor. Any
precipitation should taper off Tuesday night as high pressure
begins to build across the region.
Temperature on Monday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above
average ahead of the cold front, before returning to seasonable
levels after FROPA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Mainly dry Wednesday
- Rain and snow chances return Wednesday night and Thanksgiving
- Much colder and unsettled pattern by late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a trough will begin to advance eastward
from the central CONUS Wednesday, as low develops across the
Southern Plains. Increasing moisture and ascent in southwest
flow ahead of the trough, and on the northern side of the
developing low, will return rain and snow to the region
Wednesday night.
Operational models differ in the positioning of the low by
Thanksgiving, with some keeping it further south, and others
further north. This will affect both the amount and type of
precipitation across our region. At this time, ensemble tracks
favor a more northern positioning of the low, though plenty of
uncertainty exists in the details. Stayed close to the ensemble
blend guidance, which results in rain and snow across the region
on Thanksgiving. Snow is more probable north of PIT, with rain
to the south.
A significant pattern change is then expected, as the initial
trough deepens into a long wave trough across the Eastern CONUS
through the remainder of the long term period. Much colder
temperatures and periodic rounds of snow are expected as
individual shortwaves rotate through the trough, and some lake
and terrain enhancement occurs.
Seasonable temperatures are expected early in the forecast
period, before readings drop to between 15 and 20 degrees below
average after Thanksgiving.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR conditions are expected to improve between 22Z and 02Z
(from southwest to northeast) with dry air advecting at 925mb
from the southwest. FKL/DUJ may remain MVFR through early Monday
due to lingering lake enhanced moisture.
There is a chance for fog early tomorrow morning (09Z to 13Z) with
anticipated clearing and light winds. After sunrise, around
13Z, winds will begin to freshen and help to lift any potential
fog that developed.
Outlook...
Widespread restrictions is likely to return tomorrow afternoon into
Tuesday with a cold frontal passage.
Additional showers and restriction chances are expected mid to
late week with a new large-scale disturbance.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...WM/88
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 24, 1:16 PM EST---------------
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