PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 2:27 AM CST712
FXUS63 KPAH 210827
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
227 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cooler than normal temperatures and breezy conditions are expected
the next two days. Jacket weather is finally here.
- A light rain/snow mix is expected across southwest Indiana and nearby
areas of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky late this
afternoon and evening. No impacts though.
- Temperatures moderate back to near normal (50s) on Saturday
and above normal (60s) Sunday and Monday. Afterwards a return
to below normal temps appear likely mid to late week
including Thanksgiving Day.
- Light rain is possible Sunday night into Monday. A better
chance for widespread rains may return next Wednesday into
Thanksgiving Day.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024
A deep upper low over the Great Lakes will carve out an amplified
trough across the eastern U.S. through Friday. An initial lobe of
energy diving south may lead to some very light rain (possibly mixed
with a few snow flakes) this morning near I-64. At the surface, low
pressure across Lake Michigan will dive south into Indiana through
this evening. Forcing will be rather strong for widespread
precipitation, mainly in the form of snow, to develop to the
northeast of our cwa this afternoon and continue into tonight.
Southwest Indiana and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and
northwest Kentucky appear likely to be clipped by some of this late
this afternoon and evening. Soundings indicate the freezing level
isn't far off the surface, suggesting some snow mixing in is
certainly a possibility. No impacts/accumulations are expected
though given air temps in the upper 30s to around 40 along with warm
ground temps.
Tight pressure gradient will be in place today with northwest winds
gusting 25 to 30 mph. Wind chills likely will remain in the 30s for
most of the area through the afternoon and then drop into the 20s
again tonight into Friday morning. Winds slacken somewhat on Friday
but still remain elevated with gusts of 15 to 20 mph.
A brief bout of upper level ridging develops on Sunday with
southerly flow returning helping to boost highs back into the 60s.
Northern stream energy will slide across the Great Lakes on Monday
leading to a cold front moving through our area. Best forcing
remains well north of us though, so precip should be rather light. A
return to below normal temperatures is expected starting on Tuesday
and could linger through much of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.
The ECMWF and it's ensemble have been suggesting a stronger low
pressure system to track into the mid-Mississippi Valley region on
Thanksgiving Day resulting in a rather wet holiday. The GEFS is
starting to show that as well, although with less QPF. Meanwhile,
the deterministic GFS and Canadian keep us dry with high pressure
entrenched across the region. Therefore, confidence isn't great, but
would tend to lean slightly toward the wetter solution
materializing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 427 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024
A tight gradient between high pressure to the southwest and low
pressure to the northeast will keep west to northwest winds
going tonight, but with less gustiness than during the day.
Speeds/gusts will pick up again tmrw. A moclear evening yields
to increasing clouds late tonight into tmrw, including some
restricted bases that may yield CIGS in our northeast. Shower
chances are minimal so were not included at the terminals, but
the chance is not zero, particularly at KEVV/KOWB.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DH
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 21, 2:27 AM CST---------------
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