JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 6:48 AM EST904
FXUS63 KJKL 181148
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
648 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Precipitation is expected at times over the next week, mainly
Tuesday through Friday night.
- Above normal temperatures will persist into Wednesday, with any
precipitation occurring as rain.
- Colder temperatures arrive Wednesday night, and much of the area
could see precipitation occur as snow at times after that
point, but little or no accumulation is expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 432 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
Variably cloudy skies and mild temperatures are found across the
East Kentucky Coalfield this morning. Thermometers range from the
upper 30s in the far eastern sheltered hollows to the mid 50s over
the thermal belt ridges. The latest surface analysis shows high
pressure centered north of the Bahamas, east of a 500H ridge
extending from the Florida Keys northward to over the Ohio Valley.
To our north, a nearly vertically stacked low is passing near/over
James Bay. A frontal boundary extends south from this low across the
Eastern Great Lakes and then north of the Ohio River through the
Ozarks to a potent ~996 mb low east of Lubbock, Texas. The parent
system is an ~552 dam closed low passing near/over El Paso,
Texas.
Weak low-level WAA will ensue today over the Ohio Valley and
strengthen tonight and tomorrow as the aforementioned low pressure
races north northeast to near International Falls, Minnesota by 00z
Wednesday and occludes. In response, the boundary to our north
will shift back north as a warm front while a cold front sweeping
around the southern side of the low will approach the Coalfields
from the west by late Tuesday evening.
In sensible terms, expect variable cloud cover today with some thin
spots at times, yielding balmy highs of 65 to 70 degrees.
Temperatures remain mild tonight, ranging from the mid 40s in the
sheltered eastern valleys that decouple to the mid 50s on thermal
belt ridges and over/west of the Escarpment. Lows may be established
relatively early in the night as cloud cover increases and winds
pick up later in the night. Showers move into the Bluegrass and Lake
Cumberland counties by around or just before dawn and spread across
the remainder of the area by midday Tuesday. A few thunderstorms
are possible as well. The LREF guidance indicates good chances (40
to 70%) of at least 0.25 inch of rain, highest near Lake
Cumberland and lowest near/east of US-23. Tuesday will remain mild
with forecast highs in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
The forecast period begins with the area on the backside of an
exiting cold front but as the parent low, responsible for the cold
front, is wrapped up into another circulation; the cold front will
be abandoned to the east of the area. The new circulation quickly
develops at the same time as the surface cold front crosses through
the area. This vertically stacked system will quickly eject out of
the Desert Southwest and rapidly move toward the western Great
Lakes. This is the circulation that will absorb that low that
brought the cold front through prior to the start of the forecast
window. As this secondary, stronger system begins to dive southeast
toward the forecast area, increasing cold air will filter into the
region and with the approach of the new system, renewed PoP chances
are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the cold front
dives toward the CWA. With the cold air building into the region and
existing PoP chances, snowflakes may begin to mix into the rain
showers from early Thursday morning through early Friday afternoon.
Thermal profiles through the day support this possibility and a
little more clarity exists with this system as multiple models runs
continue to remain in agreement with this scenario. However, there's
been a slight but little adjustment to the southeasterly location of
the secondary system over the last few runs which could bring in
colder air leading to more snow showers than rain-snow mix. There
are GFS and ECMWF individual ensemble members that portray this
scenario but the went the with NBM solution that starts warmer that
leads to falling temperatures Wednesday night which will lead to
increased rain-snow chances for the remainder of the work week.
Also, must mention that due to widespread above freezing ground
temperatures; snow accumulations aren't expected across the lower
elevation. However, the high terrain across the southeastern
portions of the CWA will be below freezing for the duration of the
event and could lead to light accumulations in those areas.
Lingering backside rain-snow showers will persist through the
morning Friday before warming back up and transitioning to all rain
but as the system pulls off to the northeast, showers will dissipate
from southwest to northeast before coming to an end by Saturday
morning.
Surface high pressure will build back into the area starting
Saturday morning and persisting through the remainder of the
weekend. While surface high pressure exists, upper-level
northwesterly flow will continue to promote CAA into the region and
bring more seasonal temperatures to the area for the weekend.
However, models begin to hint at a possible system developing off
the Rockies early Sunday morning and tracking toward the CWA by
Sunday afternoon. This system is forecast to bring a warm front
through the region and advect warmer temperatures and a return of
rain chances for Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period. Localized valley fog in southeast KY early this
morning should lift/dissipate by 15z. High clouds will continue
streaming across our area today and early tonight. Additionally,
a lower secondary cloud layer around 5kft AGL will linger over
the northern half of the CWA through at least late morning/midday
before diminishing/dissipating. Ceilings lower again late tonight.
Winds will be variable to southeasterly at around 5 kts today
then turning more southerly tonight.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 18, 6:48 AM EST---------------
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