ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 10:31 AM EST884
FXUS61 KILN 151531
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1031 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers or patchy light drizzle will linger this morning
as a mid level trough moves away from the region. Although high
pressure will build into the region tonight into Saturday, cloud
cover will linger. The high will then move east on Sunday. A
weak front is expected to drop south into the Great Lakes Sunday
night and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Overcast conditions continue across the region with some light
showers and patchy drizzle focused across Southwest Ohio late
this morning. The central portion of the forecast area will
continue to have the best chance for some light precipitation
with some lift aloft with the departing trough and a moisture
connection that spans back to Lake Michigan. Have extended the
period of drizzle into the early afternoon for some areas.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain steady in the lower 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will build east into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday. Despite
this, low level moisture will remain trapped underneath a
subsidence inversion as seen per forecast model soundings. Thus,
cloudy skies are expected tonight, with mainly cloudy skies
forecast for at least the first half of Saturday. Clouds may
show some signs of erosion as we head into the mid and late
afternoon hours, especially across southern locations. Have gone
a little warmer than the NBM for lows tonight and a little
cooler for highs on Saturday due to the persist cloud cover.
Lows tonight will mainly drop into the lower 40s. Highs on
Saturday will range from the lower to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will shift east of the area Saturday night. Dry
conditions are expected Saturday night and Sunday. The next
system will be a weak boundary that sags down into the area and
washes out across the region Sunday night into Monday morning.
Moisture is limited with this feature and therefore limited
precipitation chances to the slight chance and chance
categories.
An unsettled weather pattern starts to develop Monday night and
through the remainder of the long term with several days of
precipitation chances and gusty winds as well at times. A
pattern shift will occur during this time and even lead to the
potential for some snowflakes in the long term.
A warm front will lift northward Monday night. Warm
temperatures will remain in place through Wednesday. Much colder
air works in Wednesday night into Thursday. There will be the
potential for some of the rain showers to change over to snow
showers Wednesday night into Thursday. With this dynamic system
winds will be gusty Tuesday through Thursday. Once details are
more resolved with this system, winds will likely need to be
raised for some time periods.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For today, a few light showers or patchy drizzle will persist a
little longer this morning as a mid level trough continues to
move away toward the mid Atlantic region. High pressure at the
surface and aloft will then begin to build into the region from
the west. Despite the high, low level moisture, per forecast
model soundings, will remain trapped underneath a subsidence
inversion. Ceilings will vary between MVFR to LIFR this morning,
becoming mainly MVFR this afternoon. Visibilities will vary
from VFR to IFR (in drizzle).
For tonight, the surface and mid level ridge will settle into
the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Low level
moisture will still remain trapped underneath a subsidence
inversion, so aviators can expected MVFR ceilings to linger.
As for winds, they will be west to northwest between 5 and 10
knots today. For tonight, winds will veer to the north at 5
knots or less.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings to linger into Saturday. MVFR
conditions likely Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 15, 10:31 AM EST---------------
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