CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST509
FXUS61 KCLE 140604
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
104 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system tracks through tonight into Thursday. High
pressure returns late Friday into the early part of the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:30 PM Update...
Timing of rain showers remains on track. Dry air continues to
win out so far, with virga over NW Ohio, so still think rain
will hold off until 05 or 06Z. Otherwise, SE winds are
increasing as the gradient tightens. The latest NAM and RAP
continue to project a 40-50 knot low-level jet moving through
with the warm front overnight, so expect downslope areas of the
NE Ohio lakeshore and NW PA to see the strongest winds. All of
these areas will gust over 40 mph, but lakeshore areas of NW PA
will see gusts to 50 mph, so the Wind Advisory remains in
effect overnight.
6:30 PM Update...
The forecast remains on track for this evening with no changes.
Rain is expanding to the west and southwest across Indiana and
southwest Ohio as warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent
increase ahead of the warm front. Dry low-levels will cause this
to initially fall as virga across our area, so think timing is
still reasonable of the rain reaching the I-75 corridor between
05 and 06Z then gradually spreading east overnight. The
observations will be monitored over the next couple of hours in
case rain reaches the surface earlier than expected.
Original Discussion...
Upper level trough digs into the Ohio Valley with surface low
pressure tracking into the southern Great Lakes region tonight into
Thursday. Currently in the midst of an increasing pressure gradient
with high pressure retreating into eastern Quebec/Labrador.
Southeast winds will be on the increase as a result this evening and
especially into tonight. Downsloping areas will be affected most,
mainly Cleveland and east closest to the lakeshore. In the northern
part of Erie County PA, where downsloping is greatest, a Wind
Advisory has been pushed mainly for the overnight period into early
Thursday. Back to the west, showers push into the western zones
generally after 06Z, although some brief light showers could appear
ahead of time, but the main batch of rain will be an overnight
feature. General thunder just south of the CWA, and will continue to
leave it out of the forecast at this time. Not a particularly
oversaturating rain by any means, and looking at half to three
quarters of an inch for the western half of the CWA, and slightly
less for the eastern half as the low pressure system slowly weakens
moving through the CWA. It will degrade into an inverted surface
trough, but keep the chances for showers going into Thursday night.
Back to the winds for tonight into the first half of Thursday,
expecting gusts 25-35mph for the bulk of the CWA, 30-40mph Cleveland
lakeshore and east to the PA border, and 40-50mph gusts for northern
Erie County in PA. Winds gradually ease late Thursday into Thursday
night, and will be in the process of shifting around to the north
northwest after 06Z Friday as the surface trough finally makes its
way out of the CWA. Temperatures mid 40s east to lower 50s west for
Thursday but no cold air with this system with a Pacific source
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Troughing will persist over the Lower Great Lakes through Friday and
although 850mb temps won't cool enough for lake effect rain showers,
there may be just enough lake induced instability for some light and
scattered lake-enhanced rain showers. At the very least, cold air
advection over the lake will result in widespread clouds downwind
from Lake Erie Friday. Any showers will completely taper off Friday
night as an upper ridge and surface high build in from the west.
This ridge will settled over the region through the remainder of the
Short Term Period and expect dry weather with clearing skies through
Saturday night.
Despite the cold air advection Friday, high temperatures will still
be in the low to mid 50s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Expect similar temperatures for Saturday and Saturday night,
although portions of interior NE OH and NW PA will likely dip into
the lower 30s Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Southerly flow will develop as the upper ridge axis and a surface
warm front cross the local area early Sunday and expect clouds to
increase throughout the day as an upper trough tracks east across
the Upper Great Lakes. Deterministic guidance continues to struggle
with lift/moisture across the area, but scattered showers are
possible as a weak cold front crosses the CWA Sunday night. A brief
lull is anticipated Monday morning and into the afternoon before a
more potent system approaches from the west late Monday into
Tuesday. Still quite a bit to iron out with the track, timing, and
intensity of this system, so have broadbrushed chance to likely PoPs
since most locations will likely see at least some rain on Tuesday.
Additional showers may continue through Wednesday but still far too
much model spread to get specific on precipitation chances.
Above normal temperatures are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday
with temperatures beginning to cool starting on Wednesday.
Wednesday's highs will depend on the synoptic setup which, as stated
above, still remains murky.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with deterioration
to widespread MVFR and VFR, associated with low ceilings and
vsbys, by later this morning and early afternoon. Non-VFR
conditions are then expected to persist through the TAF period.
Lower confidence in IFR conditions exists at CLE/ERI as modest
southeast winds may limit lower ceilings, at least initially. A
brief period of heavier <2sm rain is possible this morning and
have reflected this in tempo groups. Otherwise, drizzle/mist is
expected to fill in behind the initial surge of precipitation
later this afternoon and evening, so think widespread Non-VFR
vsbys are likely to persist through the TAF period.
Winds are generally out of the southeast early this morning, 10
to 15 knots with periodic higher gusts of 25 to 30 knots,
especially across the eastern half of the area. The highest
gusts of 35 to perhaps 40 knots will be found at ERI through
this morning associated with southeast downsloping winds.
Otherwise, southeast winds will remain elevated through much of
today, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
Winds will diminish slightly to around 10 knots or less later
this evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periods of drizzle and/or fog
Friday and Friday night. Non-VFR possible in fog Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Non-VFR possible again in rain showers
Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
Southeast winds of 10-15 knots late this afternoon will increase
tonight and Thursday morning to 15-25 knots which will require the
issuance of a Small Craft advisory. As low pressure approaches the
lake tonight and Thursday, the pressure gradient will increase and
produce downslope winds off the higher terrain inland of the city
Erie, PA. Winds over the lake could reach 30-34 knots over the PA
waters from 09Z-15Z before diminishing in the late afternoon.
Low pressure will track southeast off the Carolina coast on Friday
and strengthen. Winds become northwesterly behind the low but
generally remain 15 knots or less and decrease on Saturday as high
pressure builds over the lake. The high pressure will move to the
southeast states on Sunday as a weak front crosses the lake Sunday
night.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ142>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Maines
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 14, 1:04 AM EST---------------
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