LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 11:46 PM CST ...New AVIATION...479
FXUS64 KLIX 110546
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Rafael is now a post tropical cyclone with the center mainly
exposed. There has been one burst of convection to the south of
Terrebonne Parish which produced gusts well in excess of 40
knots, but that cluster is propagating southward. That should
pretty much end any significant threat of thunderstorms or heavy
rainfall. Likely to still be some patches of light rain for the
next 3-6 hours. Main forecast questions for the next 36 hours are
whether there will be fog overnight tonight and how quickly the
deeper dry air works into the area. We do expect some low ceilings
and lowered visibilities if winds decouple overnight, but not
confident on dense fog occurring, as there's still enough of a
gradient to keep things mixed. Forecast soundings for Monday
morning really don't indicate drier air getting much further east
than Interstate 55. Areas south of Interstate 10 may not entirely
clear out for the entire period of the short term ending 12z
Tuesday morning, and could even see a little light precipitation
tomorrow. Areas that see sunshine on Monday could get into the
lower 80s, or even a shade warmer, but most of the area likely to
remain in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
The next upper trough will move through the Mississippi River
Valley Wednesday night with very moist air in advance of it.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely ahead of the front Wednesday
and Wednesday night, but that's about the last thing the
operational medium range models agree on. GFS 12z run (and the
couple preceding that) never brings cooler and/or drier air into
the area with temperatures running 10-15F above normal, even after
the frontal passage. The ECMWF operational is 10-15F lower on
overnight lows, dropping morning lows well into the 40s across the
north half of the area Friday and Saturday mornings, with highs
about 5 degrees cooler than the GFS. It should be noted that there
is quite a bit of spread in the ECMWF ensemble for the end of the
week, with the 90th percentile low temperatures still about 5
degrees cooler than the GFS deterministic. The NBM temperatures at
the end of the week are a compromise, and would expect that there
will be movement of those numbers in later packages, with the
somewhat cooler solutions more reasonable. After all, it is mid-
November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
MVFR to IFR will dominate the forecast period as low clouds
persist and/or develop across the region. Areal rainfall and low
dewpoint depressions could support areas of light fog over the
next several hours. Current thinking is that those thicker cloud
decks should help to keep the fog from becoming too dense.
Visibilities will be slow to improve Monday morning but most
terminals should be able to reach MVFR or higher by the afternoon
as cloud decks slowly lift. Latest guidance suggests the chance
for any rain is too low to include in latest batch of TAFs.
However, if anyone does see rain, best chance will be SE of a KHUM
to KHDC line.
MEFFER
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
Convectively induced winds in our southwestern waters should slack
off within the hour. Otherwise, winds are beginning to relax, with
Small Craft Advisory over most of the inner waters replaced with
Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines with forecast issuance, and
the one over the outer waters replaced at mid-evening. We don't
have a lot of wave height reports over the open waters this
afternoon, but working under the assumption that the seas are
going to take somewhat longer to subside than the winds. Don't
expect that there will be a need to go much further than Monday
morning with any headlines with this event. Right now, the wind
forecast would indicate potential for Exercise Caution headlines
with the mid-week front, as pressure gradient is well to the north
of the area.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 65 78 58 77 / 20 10 10 10
BTR 69 83 62 82 / 10 0 10 10
ASD 69 78 64 79 / 40 30 10 10
MSY 71 77 68 78 / 40 20 10 10
GPT 69 77 65 79 / 50 40 20 10
PQL 70 80 66 82 / 60 40 20 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ057-058-060-
066>070-076>078-080-082-084-086-087.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Monday for GMZ570-572-575.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ086.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Monday for GMZ572-575.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 10, 11:46 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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