CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 6:28 AM EST737
FXUS61 KCLE 131128
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
628 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move east across the Lower Great Lakes
tonight night through Thursday. High pressure will return on
Friday and persist through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main focus of the near term period will be a low pressure
system moving east through the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday
night through Thursday, resulting in another round of widespread
rainfall across the area.
Quiet weather is expected for much of today as an upper-level
ridge axis arrives into the region, with surface high pressure
gradually fleeting eastwards into New England. Above-average
temperatures generally in the mid-50s are expected. A
particularly dry low and mid-level air mass currently in place
across the region may allow some lower dew points to mix down
to the surface this afternoon and evening, resulting in relative
humidity values to fall into the lower 30s to perhaps upper 20s
at times.
By late Wednesday night, the upper-level ridge will retreat
towards the East Coast, giving way for the arrival of an upper-
level trough. This upper-level trough is expected to weaken and
become a closed low by Thursday as it slowly meanders east
across the Ohio Valley. Widespread rain ahead of the trough
will spread north and northeast into the area late Wednesday
night through Thursday, with total rainfall amounts generally in
the 0.50 to 0.75-inch range. A modest S to SE LLJ is expected
to accompany the trough, with 925 mb winds peaking at around 40
to 45 knots overnight into Tuesday morning. Mixing heights will
generally not be favorable for any significant surface wind
gusts across much of the area. The exception is the lakeshore
of Northwest Pennsylvania, where downsloping winds could result
in periodic gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low over Ohio on Thursday night will slide southeast
towards the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. An inverted surface trough and
perhaps even a weak surface low may linger over Lake Erie, providing
a continued focus for showers. While mid-level dry out, low levels
look to remain quite moist below 7K feet. The airmass does not cool
sufficiently for pure lake effect showers but some enhancement is
likely with shallow lift near Lake Erie and weak low level cold
advection all the way into Friday night. POPs taper down into the
chance range by Friday with light qpf amounts. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the low 50s Friday and mid 50s Saturday. Skies
tend to scatter out through the day on Saturday as high pressure
builds east overhead.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period begins with another upper level ridge extending
north to the eastern Great Lakes then shifting east as a trough
moves through the northern stream and approaches the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will be above normal on Sunday in the upper 50s to low
60s. Increasing clouds are expected with southerly flow but there is
less certainty in when or where precipitation may develop. Best
chances look to be near or downwind of Lake Erie on Sunday night as
the trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes. Long range models have
struggled over the last several cycles with details and placement of
better moisture advection. The ECMWF and GFS both point towards the
ridge building again on Tuesday before the next trough moves out of
the Plains. Overall the long term continues to look warm but with
some indication that a trough may finally win out with cooler
temperatures later next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites this morning with deterioration to
MVFR from rain and lower ceilings towards the end of the TAF
period from west to east. Do think there will be a period of IFR
conditions from heavier bouts of rain and/or lower ceilings,
but low confidence on timing precludes inclusion at this time.
Otherwise, high cirrus will continue to gradually spread north
and northeast across the area through today.
Winds are generally out of the east this morning, 5 to 10
knots. Winds will gradually increase to around 10 knots by later
this morning and afternoon, favoring a slight southeast
component towards the end of the TAF period. Higher southeast
wind gusts up to 30 knots will be possible at ERI late this
evening and overnight with the aid of downsloping.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periods of rain and low ceilings
Wednesday night into Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
East winds of 10-20 knots this morning will become southeasterly
today and southerly tonight as low pressure approaches the Great
Lakes Region. A low level jet of 45 knots moves over Lake Erie
tonight resulting in winds increasing to 15-25 knots(locally up to
30). Generally expecting winds to approach Small Craft criteria in
the 09-18Z time frame but given the offshore component the higher
waves will be out over the open waters. Low pressure weakens as it
crosses Lake Erie Thursday night, moving southeast towards West
Virginia. Winds become northwesterly behind the low but generally
remain 15 knots or less and decreases on Saturday.
High pressure overhead on Saturday night builds east on Sunday as
low pressure passes north of the Great Lakes. Southwesterly winds of
15-20 knots Sunday night into Monday will likely result in a brief
window of Small Craft Advisory conditions.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...KEC
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 13, 6:28 AM EST---------------
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