JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 11:40 PM EST701
FXUS63 KJKL 090440 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1140 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain is expected for late Saturday through Sunday, and again
around the middle of next week.
- Normal to above normal temperatures will occur through the middle
of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with mainly just the
inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure building in from the
northwest in the wake of a cold front that has departed to the
south. This front did bring some needed rain to the northern parts
of the area but missed wetting the southeast. As a result, the
southern valleys should be a bit harder to fog tonight compared
to most normal frontal passages at this time of year, though some
fog along the river channels was included with this update.
Otherwise, skies are partly cloudy with just some high ones moving
through now that the low ones associated with the front have
dissipated in the far southeast. Temperatures have fallen into the
mid 40s in the more sheltered valleys while the ridges are still
in the mid 50s. This is due to only light northwest winds in the
wake of fropa keeping the valleys from being well mixed and
allowing for radiational cooling in addition to the ongoing CAA -
setting up a small to moderate ridge and valley temperature
difference that should continue through the night. Dewpoints,
meanwhile, vary from the upper 30s northwest, closer to the drier
heart of the high, to the low and mid 50s southeast. Have updated
the forecast mainly for the fog but also to include the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
Upper ridging builds over the area tonight, moves across eastern
Kentucky into the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday, with southwesterly
upper flow increasing rapidly late Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night ushering a low-level warm front quickly northeastward
across the area.
Low-level moisture and associated low cloud cover will continue to
move south through the southern part of the area and exit into
eastern TN and southwest VA tonight, with just passing thin mid- and
high-level clouds passing over from time to time. With light winds
and a much drier air mass in place, valley temperatures will drop
into the mid-30s especially in the deeper northeast valleys, with
lower 40s in the southwest.
Low-level easterly flow will become more southeasterly with time
Saturday to the north of a warm front becoming better defined over
the far southwestern part of the CWA. Highs will be coolest north of
and along I-64 with mid-60s, with lower to mid-70s along and south
of the advancing warm front.
Low-level moisture increases rapidly Saturday night, especially to
the lee of the mountains along the Virginia border, with the terrain
assisting in developing a boundary between weak downslope drying on
the southeast side and isentropic upglide on the northwest side.
Thus, there will be a significant PoP and QPF gradient across the
CWA from northwest to southeast Saturday night, with a strong low-
level jet pushing north and northeast across central Kentucky and
western parts of our forecast area. Lows Saturday night will be much
milder than tonight's lows with 50s primarily across the area.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
Currently, an upper level low parked over the Four Corners area
of the Southwest U.S, is producing a historic winter storm across
portions of Colorado, New Mexico, and surrounding areas. This
upper low is anticipated to track northeastward, and be located
over the Iowa/Minnesota area by Sunday morning. Moisture-
enriched air will precede an attached cold front extending all the
way down to the Louisiana coastline. This moisture field is due
to remnants of Hurricane Rafael, located in the Gulf of Mexico.
While this is occurring, a deep Aleutian low approaches the
Pacific Northwest through the day Sunday.
For eastern Kentucky, showers and thundershowers can be expected
to continue through Sunday evening, with dew points in the 50s
rising through the day. As a moisture-enhanced cold front moves
across the state Sunday, precipitable water generally remains
between 1.00 and 1.50 inches. The Weather Prediction Center has
put our area under a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. This
generally means at least a 5% chance of rainfall exceeding flash
flood guidance within 25 miles of any point in the area. Model
guidance suggests this cold front will progress east of the area
by mid-morning Monday. Some lingering showers may continue into
late morning across southeast Kentucky. Between the onset of rain,
Saturday night, and the conclusion of it Monday morning, many
areas could end up seeing around or over 0.75 inches of rainfall.
In fact, the probability of locations seeing 0.75 inches or
greater is 40-60%, with the entire forecast area having a 70-85%
chance of seeing at least 0.50 inches of rainfall. Locally higher
amounts may be observed in areas that see heavier or more
persistent bands. In these cases it may be possible to have
ponding of water in isolated locations with poor drainage areas.
High temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally be in the mid
to upper 60s, under southerly winds, becoming westerly Monday.
Lows Sunday night will generally be in the low 50s, while Monday
night, some ridge valley splits will see valleys in the upper 30s
to low 40s, and ridge tops in the low to mid 40s.
After the cold front's departure Monday, a ridge moves in for
Tuesday. Eastern Kentucky can expect dry conditions under light
northerly winds and highs in the low 60s. Lows for Tuesday night are
expected to range in the mid to upper 30s for valleys, and lower 40s
for ridge tops.
Wednesday looks to be the warmest of the days in the extended, with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dry conditions under southerly
winds will give way to increasing clouds heading into the evening.
Models are still honing in on the next system, however that
Aleutian low that was mentioned earlier is expected to support a
shortwave splitting off of it, deepening into another upper low.
The center of this low varies based on the model; ranging from
northern Manitoba, to central Nebraska. This low is expected to
have a cold front that could interact with remnants of stalled out
Hurricane Rafael. This would bring more rain showers to eastern
Kentucky late Wednesday and into early Thursday.
Thursday, showers should taper off early leading to clearing skies
and much cooler post-frontal temperatures in the mid to upper
50s. Otherwise, dry conditions. These conditions continue through
the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high
pressure builds in effectively from the northwest. Localized
river valley fog will likely form overnight, but not affect any
of the TAF sites. Winds will be light and variable through the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 8, 11:40 PM EST---------------
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