National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 8A for TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE882
WTNT33 KNHC 051739
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
100 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024
...CENTER OF RAFAEL NOW WEST OF THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 79.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus,
and Ciego de Avila
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the southern
Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Rafael.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 79.1 West. Rafael is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (23 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the storm is expected to move away from western
Jamaica this afternoon, and be near or over the Cayman Islands
this evening and tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected during the next
24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane as it
passes near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it
makes landfall in Cuba.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Rafael can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by
this evening and are also expected in western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
Jamaica for several more hours and are expected in parts of
west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday
and Wednesday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible farther
east in central Cuba on Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands into southern and western portions of Cuba. Rainfall totals
between 3 to 6 inches are expected, with isolated higher totals up
to 10 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain, which could
lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight.
Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal
tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane
Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.
The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and
southwesternmost Florida mainland.
SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of
the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Source:
National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 8A for TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE---------------
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