IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 7:08 PM EST240
FXUS63 KIWX 050008
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
708 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periods of light rain are expected today and tomorrow with
the best chances west of Interstate 69.
- Winds from the south will gust up to 40 mph today and Tuesday.
- Record warm temperatures are expected today and tomorrow. Cooler
weather returns for the end of the week but it will still be
above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
Sfc cyclone over srn OK in association with intense upper shortwave
ejecting out of NM will deepen nwd into se NE overnight and liftout
through nrn WI by late Tue. Meanwhile downstream warm advection
supporting a broad arc of showers/embedded thunder from nrn AR into
nrn IN yet is expected to wane by this evening as better moisture
flux shifts west. In fact most if not all of the cwa should be dry
by midnight as showers/storms focus within low level baroclinic zone
through wrn/nrn IL overnight. Thereafter cold frontal rains will
overspread wrn zones Tue aftn yet weaken ewd into Tue evening as
cold front weakens. Gusty sw winds again especially across IN zones
where mixing in warm sector intersects 50-60kt low level flow mid
morning through mid aftn.
Cooler and dry weather follows post frontal Wed-Sat as sfc ridging
becomes entrenched across the Great Lakes. Secondary following wave
carving out through the swrn US again Thu-Fri will liftout into the
wrn lakes late weekend with another chance for some rain by Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 646 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
VFR to MVFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites, with brief
spurts of IFR possible at KSBN over the next few hours as rain
lingers around. Otherwise, LLWS to 40 to 50 knots expected
overnight into early morning before we decouple. Southerly wind
gusts up to 40 knots are possible at KSBN Tuesday, and up to 35
knots at KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ to 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/
Tuesday for INZ005-006-008-012>015-017-020-022>024-103-
104-116-203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 7:08 PM EST---------------
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