BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:47 PM EST494
FXUS61 KBOX 050247
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
947 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Warming up Tuesday with breezy winds, then near or above record
highs and windy Wednesday. Another cold front moves through
Thursday and Friday, but temperatures only fall back into the
60s. Cool and dry again next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM Update...
* Rather cloudy with steady to slowly rising temps overnight
Previous forecast is in good shape. High pressure moving off the
coast was allowing for a return southerly flow of much milder
air into southern New England. Warm advection aloft has allowed
an abundance of clouds to have overspread the region. That being
said...the stronger forcing/deeper moisture remains to our
north. So other than perhaps a few brief sprinkles...dry weather
will prevail overnight.
Southerly flow along with an abundance of clouds will result in
much milder temperatures than 24 hours ago. Current temps in the
upper 40s to the lower 50s will be steady or slowly rising
overnight. This is particularly true towards the southeast New
England coast where temps may rise through the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds may be slow to depart the south coast of New England
Tuesday, but there should at least be some breaks by afternoon.
SW winds increase and become gusty by late morning into the
afternoon hours. Pressure gradient should increase enough to
keep gusty SW winds blowing Tuesday night. Above normal
temperatures Tuesday should not fall off much Tuesday night.
Expecting low temperatures Tuesday night to be closer to what
are our normal high temperatures for early November. Dry weather
continues.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
* Well above normal temperatures with breezy southwest winds for
Wed, with a dry cold frontal passage for Wed night.
* Less above-normal temperatures for Thurs, before a more
substantial cooldown toward more seasonable temperatures Fri
and Sat.
* Guarded optimism toward a much needed rain event for Sunday or
Monday.
Wednesday:
Though the majority of model vertical RH profiles indicating at
least a mix of clouds and sun in the warm sector, we are still
expecting well above normal temperatures along with breezy WSW
winds into Wed. This occurs ahead of a cold front, which will be
crossing through Southern New England late Wed evening/early-
overnight Thurs. With the better forcing weakening/shearing out
and also riding along toward interior northern New England,
other than a few light rain showers, there isn't much optimism
for any significant rainfall with this frontal passage.
With 925 mb temps around +14 to +17C and WSW winds, should see
highs reach into the mid to upper 70s, with upper 60s/near 70
Cape and Islands. The main forecast challenges in this period
are with regard to how high will dewpoints reach and what wind
gust speeds we could see, both of which are tied to how well
we'll mix. NBM indicates dewpoints in the low 60s, which seem
quite a bit high given the WSW downsloping winds, but we may
also not mix as well as prior days which would also reduce wind
gusts in turn. With the uncertainty regarding both elements and
as both will greatly affect our fire weather situation, I ended
up siding towards a breezier and drier solution for now with RHs
around 50% and gusts around 25 to 30 mph; these will need to be
better resolved as we start to get into more of the mesoscale
model time horizon.
It looks as though the post-frontal cold advection will be more
gradual, and with WNW winds during the overnight, kept lows in
the lower 50s for most of the region.
Thursday:
High pressure returns on Thurs. Gradual cool advection (925 mb
temps falling to around +7 to +9C) will be offset by full sun
and WNW winds around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph support
highs in the 60s. Thus despite the cold frontal passage,
probably looking at another day with temps running above normal,
though anomalies should be quite a bit less than on Wed.
Decreasing NW wind speeds for the evening should support lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Friday and Saturday:
A more substantial cool down is in the offing in this forecast
period, as a stronger 500 mb trough and sfc frontal system in NW
flow moves through interior northern New England. While the
cold front will be progressing southward on Fri, it again looks
to be a largely dry frontal passage, with cooler/blustery
weather for Fri evening. High pres then re-establishes itself
into the northeast for Sat, bringing seasonably cool and dry
weather. Should see highs in the lower 60s on Fri, but cooling
off into the middle 50s for Sat.
Sunday:
Still a bit early, but some of the models and ensembles indicate
guarded optimism in a more substantial and much-needed rain
event around Sunday and/or Monday. Too uncertain for specifics
at this point which will hinge on the storm's track as it moves
thru mid Atlantic and the Gt Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
00z TAF Update:
Tonight: Moderate confidence.
Mainly VFR, but there could be intervals of MVFR bases at times,
especially in southeast MA/RI and in/around the higher terrain.
Winds begin to pick up from the south at 5-10 knots inland, and
10-15 knots near the waters.
Tuesday: Moderate Confidence
VFR for most. Areas MVFR possible towards the south coast in the
morning may linger into evening across the Cape and Islands. SW
winds at around 10-15 knots, gusting to 20 knots.
Tuesday Night: High Confidence
VFR for most. Areas low-end MVFR/IFR possible towards the Cape
and Islands. Gusty SW winds continue.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR ceilings, though
there may be a chance at MVFR bases after 08z Tuesday as winds
become southwest. Should be VFR on Tuesday too, though with
SW winds gusting to around 20 kt.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR/brief MVFR ceilings
tonight into the early Tue AM timeframe, trending SCT-BKN VFR
for Tue. S winds around 5-10 kt increasing and becoming SW
around 10-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR.
Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday: Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Relatively tranquil marine weather conditions are expected
into Tuesday under strong high pressure. Gusty SW winds develop
Tuesday, leading to building seas late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Small Craft Advisories are likely going to be needed for
Tuesday night.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The protracted stretch of dry weather will continue to lead to
elevated concerns for wildfire development until we can get a
substantial wetting rain event. Relative humidities should range
between 50-70 percent Tuesday with gusty southwest winds
developing.
With a lack of significant rain expected over the next several
days, Special Weather Statements are likely to be needed through
this week coinciding with periods where winds are on the lighter
side. Consideration will be given towards Red Flag Warnings to
highlight a greater threat for wildfire development and spread
when and where there are sufficiently strong winds. Tuesday and
Wednesday could meet that wind speed criterion, but those
decisions will be coordinated beforehand with our state fire
weather partners on a day-to-day basis.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Previous Record highs for Wednesday, November 6th
Boston: 76F set in 2022
Hartford: 76F set in 2022
Providence: 75F set in 2022
Worcester: 72F set in 2022
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Loconto
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Belk/Loconto
MARINE...Belk/Loconto
FIRE WEATHER...Belk/Loconto
CLIMATE...Staff
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 9:47 PM EST----------------
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