MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 7:01 PM CST ...New AVIATION...702
FXUS64 KMOB 050101
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS) Issued at XXXXXX
VFR conditions will persist through the forecast with a
southeasterly wind around 10 knots. Some isolated to scattered
showers and storms will develop along the western Florida
Panhandle tomorrow morning and drift inland bringing potential
reduced visibilities and ceilings. Storms should subside during
the afternoon as VFR ceilings return. BB/03
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
An upper ridge will remain centered off the southeast coast
through Tuesday night. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will eject
northeast across the plains through Tuesday night with most of the
energy being shunted northeast of the area around the ridge. An
associated cold front will also advance eastward to near the
Mississippi River by Tuesday night where it will stall and
gradually wash out. A few light rain showers will continue this
afternoon mainly across southwest portions of the area. The
showers will dissipate this evening, then redevelop again in the
same areas Tuesday morning.
Temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year. High
temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, while
lows remain 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will top
out in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows in the lower to
middle 60s inland and middle to upper 60s nearer the coast. A High
risk of rip currents will continue for the foreseeable future. /13
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
At the start of the extended period, our region will be located
in between an upper ridge located over the western Atlantic and a
longwave trough over the western US. This will allow for
southwesterly flow aloft to continue through at least Friday.
Additionally, a shortwave trough is expected to move along the
western periphery of the upper ridge, pushing across the southeast
US on Wednesday. This will allow for deep, tropical moisture to
advect northward. PWAT values look to range from 1.5 inches over
our western zones to as high as 2.3 inches over our eastern zones.
At the surface, easterly winds will be in place thanks to the
influence of high pressure sitting over the western Atlantic.
Additionally, a cold front looks to stall well to our west over
the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we get into midweek. Looking
at rain chances, the surge of moisture, along with the close
proximity to the embedded shortwave trough, will allow for rain
chances to increase across the area, especially over the eastern
half of the region (lingering subsidence should keep rain chances
lower over the western half). At this time, not expecting any
severe weather with this activity due to a lack of instability and
limited deep layer shear.
By late Friday and into the weekend, all eyes point to a tropical
disturbance developing over the northwest Caribbean/southern Gulf.
This system (now designated Tropical Storm Rafael) is expected to
intensify into a hurricane by tomorrow afternoon as it approaches
and moves over western Cuba. After emerging into the Gulf by
Wednesday night, the intensity should remain rather steady, although
cannot rule out a bit more intensification as it moves over the warm
Gulf loop current and shear over the southern Gulf remains rather
weak. By the Friday/Saturday timeframe, Rafael should be located
somewhere over the central to northern Gulf. By this point, the
environment will turn extremely hostile for the storm, with very
strong vertical wind shear (potentially as high as 60-70 knots),
cooler SSTs, and a dry mid to upper-level atmosphere for it to
contend with. This should cause Rafael to weaken quite rapidly as
the mid to upper level circulation likely decouples from the low
level circulation and the convection begins to erode away thanks
to the drier air. How quickly the storm will weaken and where
exactly the remnant low-level circulation will go is still yet to
be determined, and therefore it is too early to determine any
local impacts with regards to rainfall and winds. At this time, we
urge residents and visitors along the northern Gulf Coast to
continue monitoring the forecast over the coming days. By Sunday
and into Monday, dry air moves back into the region, allowing for
rain chances to decrease as we get into the start of the week.
Temperatures continue to remain well above average for this time of
year. Highs will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s and lows will
only dip into the 60s. A High Risk of rip currents will continue
through the week and into the weekend. We will also have to monitor
the potential for High Surf Advisory conditions Thursday into Friday
for surf heights around 5 to 7 feet. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024
Moderate to strong southeasterly flow continues through this
evening, becoming moderate easterly flow by Tuesday night. Mid to
late week, moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will
persist along with increasing seas as a tropical system begins to
move into the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the open Gulf waters through this
evening. Another Small Craft Advisory may become necessary late
week owing to the increasing seas and winds. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 67 84 68 81 69 82 68 80 / 0 10 20 30 30 30 20 40
Pensacola 70 80 71 79 71 80 70 79 / 0 20 30 60 40 40 30 30
Destin 70 82 72 79 71 80 70 79 / 10 20 40 70 40 50 30 30
Evergreen 62 82 64 80 68 80 66 79 / 0 20 20 50 40 40 30 40
Waynesboro 63 85 64 83 67 80 65 78 / 0 20 10 20 20 10 20 30
Camden 62 80 62 79 66 79 65 77 / 0 10 20 40 30 20 20 30
Crestview 62 87 66 79 69 82 68 80 / 0 10 30 70 40 50 30 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for GMZ650-655-
670-675.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 4, 7:01 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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