PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 5:38 PM CST831
FXUS63 KPAH 052338
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
538 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread precip is moving through the area along with a slow
moving cold front.
- Abnormally warm temperatures continue even behind the front.
- Active pattern continues through next week with another good
chance for rain Friday night through Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
Updated aviation discussion for 00Z Tafs.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
An upper level trof continues to move northeast through the Upper
Midwest today. This is slowly pushing a cold front through the area
which is bringing widespread rain to the area. Additional rainfall
of 1-2" is expected with the highest amounts over western KY. The D1
Slight ERO makes sense given the high end PWATs. Continued breezy
and gusty conditions today as we sit wedged between the sfc low to
our northwest and the sfc high to our east. The front then stalls
just to our southeast and leaves lingering PoPs through Wednesday
night into Thursday morning mainly over the KY Pennyrile.
Behind the front temperatures come down slightly but are still above
average in the mid 60s to lower 70s. We dry out briefly Thursday and
Friday before the next system. By Thursday afternoon an upper level
cut off low forms over the Four Corners region. There is now
slightly better model agreement about the progression of this low as
it ejects out into the Central Plains and towards the Upper Midwest.
There is still some disagreement though over the path of tropical
storm Rafael in the Gulf and whether any of that moisture comes
into play.
PoPs start to ramp back up Friday night through Saturday and taper
off Sunday possibly into Monday. Currently in the official forecast
from Friday night to Monday morning we could see 0.75-2" of rain.
Early indications are that the active pattern continues next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024
A front slowly moving east across the area will bring showers to
the terminals tonight. CIG and visb restrictions are expected
with these showers. Coverage of showers will wane overnight but
MVFR cigs will remain in place overnight and into tomorrow.
Southerly winds will be breezy this evening and should calm
overnight when they veer toward the northwest.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AD
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 5, 5:38 PM CST---------------
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