LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 12:52 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...141
FXUS63 KLMK 020452
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1252 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry weekend with temperatures warming above normal by Sunday.
Next chance for appreciable rainfall will be next Tuesday into
Wednesday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
High pressure over Michigan is providing the region with a very
quiet night, weatherwise. With a very light breeze out of the north
and just some occasional thin, high clouds overhead, temperatures
have dropped quickly this evening. Lows near the freezing mark will
be possible around dawn in sheltered valleys, with lows generally in
the upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. No significant changes
needed to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
It is a beautiful Fall afternoon, albeit several degrees cooler than
yesterday at this time. Temperatures are creeping up through the
upper 50s and lower 60s in many areas as of this writing and will
top out in the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Temps are slightly
warmer across south-central KY.
Sfc high pressure is centered over IL this afternoon, and area
observations show a prevailing northerly wind around 5 mph. Sfc high
pressure is forecast to shift east tonight across MI/IN, and we'll
see a very light/calm wind generally from the NE. Zonal WSW flow
aloft will continue through tomorrow. This benign pattern will only
produce some scattered thin cirrus overnight. Temperatures will
tumble into the mid 30s to lower 40s by early Saturday morning.
High pressure continues to shift east over the eastern Great Lakes
on Saturday, causing our winds to veer out of the ENE. Expect a
mostly sunny day, with temperatures rising into the mid 60s to lower
70s in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
From Sunday into next week the overall weather pattern becomes more
active thanks to an amplified upper air pattern with deep
troughiness across the west and general ridging east of the
Mississippi. This will result in a little more active weather
pattern across the central Plains and even parts of the Ohio Valley.
With our best chance of showers on Election Day lingering into
Wednesday. Thanks to the ridging aloft and strong southerly flow
allowing for strong WAA through Tuesday, temperatures will be 15 to
20 degrees above normal with a few of our climate sites approaching
near record warmth on Tuesday.
The pattern becomes more amplified with the western trough and
eastern ridge Saturday night into Sunday. The main system and
dynamics look to remain mainly west and north of our CWA on Sunday
as a warm front lifts northward across the region. There is just a
very slight chance of a shower across parts of southern IN during
the day Sunday. A cold front stretching from the Upper Midwest
southward into the TX Panhandle on Monday will slowly work eastward
Monday through Tuesday. Strong warm air and moisture advection ahead
of the boundary will help to increase temperatures and precipitation
chances out ahead of the boundary. Highs as mentioned above will be
well above seasonal normals for early November reaching the upper
70s to near 80 Sunday through Tuesday with lows Monday and Tuesday
morning in the mid/upper 60s. As the pressure gradient tightens
ahead of the cold front, winds are expected to turn gusty with 20-30
mph gusts possible on Tuesday. This will also be aided by a strong
LLJ.
Wednesday through the end of the week, the cold front slowly works
eastward across KY and the region on Wednesday leaving a chance of
showers around during the day but slightly cooler temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s. High pressure is expected to build in over
the region behind the departing boundary for the end of the week.
Weather will remain dry and slightly above normal with highs in the
mid/upper 60s to near 70 which is still 5 to 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024
High pressure over the Ohio Valley is leading to light winds out of
the NE and SCT Cirrus early this morning. By mid morning, winds will
pick back up around 5-8kts out of the NE. Early evening and into the
overnight hours, high pressure will begin to shift northeast of the
region, allowing winds to veer to the southeast overnight. At the
same time, a LLJ will approach from the west keeping winds up
overnight.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 2, 12:52 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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