MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:55 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...171
FXUS64 KMOB 291255
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
755 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 755 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Patchy fog
through around 13-14z this morning with localized MVFR (perhaps
even IFR) conditions during that time, then VFR today through
this evening. Light easterly to southeasterly at around 5 to 10
knots today and tonight. DS/12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
We have had some patchy fog over parts of the forecast area this
morning, for the most part generally light. But, the fog has been a
little more widespread over interior southeast MS, and also locally
dense there in a few locations. Doesn't appear to be widespread
enough to require a Dense Fog Advisory, but some locations across
interior southeast MS may have visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less
at times until shortly after sunrise. Will likely have similar
conditions occur across the area again tonight with patchy fog,
locally dense in few locations.
Otherwise, no real changes to the forecast during the near term
period from what we had previously. Shallow layer of slightly cooler
(but somewhat moist - especially near the coast) will continue to
ridge down into our area from the northeast as surface high pressure
remains centered over the North Carolina area. Aloft, upper ridging
continues over the area today, but shifts just slightly to the east
on Wednesday. Guidance continues to indicate that PWATs may drop to
below 1 inch across much of the area today in association with the
cooler airmass ridging in from the northeast, but increase once
again to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches on Wednesday. We had a few very
isolated showers near the coast on Monday afternoon, but with the
lower PWAT's today we shouldn't be looking at any precipitation at
all. With the slightly increased available moisture on Wednesday,
could see an isolated shower or two, especially near the coast, but
PoPs below 15 percent and will not include any rain in the official
forecast. High temperatures today and Wednesday will be in the low
to mid 80s, so just a few degrees cooler than what we have seen over
the past few days (but still well above normal). Low temperatures
both tonight and Wednesday night will primarily be in the 60s across
the entire area, closer to 60 well inland but approaching 70 near
the coast.
Beach Note: Given the increasing east to southeasterly flow, risk of
rip currents increases to a HIGH RISK Tuesday and will continue
through Wednesday (and even through the remainder of the week). Surf
heights will also be increasing with 3-4 foot breakers expected
today and perhaps increasing to around 5 feet on Wednesday. With
this being just borderline for a High Surf Advisory, and just beyond
the 24 hour issue period, we will let the dayshift re-assess the
need for any High Surf Advisory products that may be needed on
Wednesday. DS/12
LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Southwesterly flow aloft will be in place at the start of the
period as our region remains located in between an upper ridge
over the western Atlantic and an upper trough over the Central
Plains. Throughout the period, the upper trough will lift across
the Great Lakes region/Ohio River Valley, helping to dampen the
upper ridge and shove it back to the west. The ridge sits overhead
through the weekend before getting pushed back into the Atlantic
as a second longwave trough digs over the Rockies. At the surface,
a frontal boundary is expected to approach the area on Thursday
before stalling and washing out over central Mississippi/Alabama
on Friday. By the weekend, high pressure over the northern US
shifts eastward towards the Appalachians, possibly allowing for
another cold air damming (CAD) event to materialize over the
southeast US. Similar to the CAD event earlier this week, this
could send a weak 'backdoor cold front' across the area, which may
only result in an increase in winds by Sunday and Monday.
A few isolated to widely scattered showers, and possibly a
thunderstorm, may be possible for counties west of the Tombigbee
River Thursday into Friday due to the close proximity of the
stalling frontal boundary. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail
through the period thanks to the subsident effects from the nearby
upper ridge. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal norms
throughout the period, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s
and lows ranging from the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along
the coast. A High Risk of rip currents will continue through the
week and into the weekend. /96
MARINE...
Issued at 521 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
Moderate east to southeasterly winds gradually becoming
stronger Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moderate to strong
southeasterly flow the Wednesday night into early Thursday,
diminishing Thursday night through Friday, but a moderate easterly
flow will continue offshore through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) may be required for offshore Gulf waters Wednesday and
Thursday, but for now it looks borderline and mainly high end Small
Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria for winds and seas, so have
opted to hold off one more forecast cycle with regard to issuing the
SCA and just maintain SCEC at this time. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 83 63 82 68 84 66 83 64 / 0 0 10 0 20 10 10 0
Pensacola 80 68 80 72 81 69 81 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
Destin 82 69 82 70 82 68 82 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 84 60 85 62 85 62 85 60 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 0
Waynesboro 84 60 84 62 84 64 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 30 20 20 10
Camden 83 58 82 61 85 63 83 60 / 0 0 10 0 10 10 10 0
Crestview 86 60 86 61 86 61 86 60 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 7:55 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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