IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 2:10 PM EDT423
FXUS63 KIWX 301810
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures continue into Thursday, but return
to around normal ranges Friday and this weekend.
- Next chance for showers and a few storms comes Thursday
followed by a better chance late Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Pronounced shortwave trough invof the cntrl Rockies will eject newd
through the nrn lakes late tomorrow while deamplifying aloft.
Prefrontal trough ahead of this sys will bring about a period of
showers mid morning west to early aftn west followed by weakly
forced cold front. Lack of better moisture amidst poor
destabilization owing to morning activity suggests little of
consequence follows mid to late aftn east half and fitting within
strong cams based guidance consensus.
Canadian high pressure ridge follows as it transects the OH
valley/Great Lakes through Sat followed by another even deeper
system carving out through the four corners. Pronounced warm
advection develops downstream of this deep sys Sun with a period of
showers and even storms possible pending timing of Gomex return
moisture entrainment yet will hedge slower into Sun aftn in
reflection of ensemble blends. Otherwise this sys follows a similar
cntrl plains to upper midwest track late Mon-late Tue with general
ewd decay noted which has been the pattern of persistence here for
months. As such will cut high biased pop blend here in late
periods.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Southwesterly gusts of 30-35 knots will persist in a well mixed
pre-frontal environment this afternoon. Sfc winds/gusts fall off
a bit this evening as the boundary layer cools and mixing depths
diminish, which supports another night of LLWS as the LLJ ramps
up. VFR otherwise into tonight before chances for showers and
isolated thunder enter the forecast Thursday morning along an
incoming pre-frontal trough (leftovers from intense upstream
convection).
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 2:10 PM EDT---------------
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