ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 9:54 AM EDT503
FXUS61 KILN 311354
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
954 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty winds will occur ahead of a cold front that will move
through the area late today into the evening. In addition, there
will be showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. High pressure
will bring a return to dry conditions along with cooler
temperatures for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT/...
A sw-ne oriented cold front will be located just northwest of
the I- 71 corridor a little before midnight tonight. A line of
showers will precede this front, ending as it passes. Ahead of
the front is expected to be a ridge of high pressure, which
should mark the beginning of these showers.
ATTM, the timing between the ridge and the front looks to be
during prime trick-or-treat hours between 5 and 8 pm. One piece
of good news here is that the showers (along with some rumbles
of thunder) will be quite transitory. They are only expected to
last in any one place for a half hour to 40 minutes.
Additionally, the strongest winds are expected to lighten as
the rain begins, though it will still be gusty through about
midnight.
Cold front pushing into the Mississippi Valley early
this morning will continue eastward and get into the western
part of the forecast area by the end of the day. Showers
occurring well ahead of the front will move into the area,
mainly after noon. While not straightforward, it appears that
there will be a weakening trend in this activity, this despite
affecting the area during a diurnally favorable time of day.
While warm advection will result in another very warm day, highs
in the 70s to lower 80s, insolation will be limited due to an
extensive mid deck of clouds and an increase in lower clouds.
Instability is forecast to be quite limited, but cannot
completely rule out a bit of thunder.
A low level jet will translate into the region this morning and
then weaken this afternoon as it lifts northeast. Mixing into
even a portion of this low level jet will result in rather gusty
winds. The highest winds are expected from mid morning into the
early afternoon with a slight decrease in gust magnitude mid to
late afternoon. There is a window ahead of any showers where
gusts may get as high as 50 mph in the northwest part of the
forecast area. Thus a wind advisory has been issued for those
counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cold front will continue to move through the forecast area
during the evening. Pre- frontal showers will diminish, but a
fine line of showers may develop right along the front and track
along with the boundary. There could be a brief increase in
gusts right at frontal passage, but thereafter winds will
gradually subside through the overnight. Clouds will decrease as
well.
High pressure will build in for Friday. There may be a few
stratocumulus, especially in west central Ohio, but overall
plenty of sunshine. Highs will be close to normal, upper 50s to
lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a tranquil start, an active period is indicated, thanks to a
digging mid level trough and associated surface low and cold front,
coupled with deep moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico.
Dry weather is anticipated for Friday night and Saturday as high
pressure tracks across the Great Lakes. The threat for showers
begins on Sunday under a band of isentropic upglide near a warm
front that will be well ahead of low pressure forming to the west.
The best chance for showers appears to be over northwestern
locations that will be closer to the warm front. The model blend
suggests a similar scenario for Monday and Tuesday as additional
bands of lift and moisture circulate ahead of the slowly evolving
low pressure. The likelihood for showers spreads east across the
entire FA Tuesday night into Wednesday when a cold front is expected
to push through. Gusty winds will be evident, especially on Tuesday
in the tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal through the period.
Highs in the 60s Saturday and the low 60s to mid 70s Sunday will
increase to the 70s to around 80 Monday and Tuesday as warm
advection takes hold on the southerly flow ahead of the low. A
retreat back to the low 60s to low 70s may be observed on Wednesday
following cold frontal passage.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low level wind shear will continue for the first few hours of
the period. Thereafter, winds will mix more which will result in
surface gusts at or above 30 kt. Gusts may diminish just a bit
after 20Z, but they will not substantially decrease until well
after a cold front moves through.
There are some MVFR ceilings between Dayton and Cincinnati at
the beginning of the period, but if they affect any of those
terminals, it will be brief. So for the most part it will be
VFR. Showers will develop, generally after 17Z. Cannot rule out
a brief reduction in visibility with these showers. Widespread
showers will decrease late in the day, but at that point, low
levels will have moistened sufficiently for ceilings to drop to
MVFR.
Cold front will move across the terminals between 00Z and
04Z. There will likely be a narrow band of showers right along
the front and there could be a brief increase in wind gusts at
that time. Then, winds will gradually decrease, ceilings will
lift to VFR and start to scatter late in the period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>054.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM... /Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...
CLIMATE...
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 9:54 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
