JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:40 AM EDT726
FXUS63 KJKL 300540 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild and dry weather will persist into Thursday.
- A wetting rainfall is expected as a cold front moves through the
area Thursday night and early Friday morning.
- Cooler temperatures will arrive for Friday into Saturday, with
milder reading returning to start next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
UPDATE Issued at 1055 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids catching the
ridge to valley split underway and slowly increasing high clouds
from the northwest. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and
SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east of Kentucky
while deep low pressure remains well to the northwest of the area
providing for a decent pressure gradient across the Commonwealth.
This has kept a southerly flow of wind over the area at 5 to 10
mph with higher gusts for much of the afternoon. Now these winds
have mostly settled, but not before giving us another warm and dry
day with readings topping out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees
for many places across eastern Kentucky. They have now fallen
back into the upper 50s in the more sheltered valleys to the low
70s on the ridges. Expect this divide to continue through the
night under just some passing high clouds. An increase in
moisture brought in by those south winds has taken dewpoints into
the mid 50s most places. Even so, expect just the standard areas
of fog to develop near the rivers and bodies of water later
tonight. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 404 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
Ridging at all levels of the atmosphere will result in clear to
partly cloudy skies through Wednesday night. Although, the ridging
will be slowly shifting further to our east with time, and a cold
front will be approaching from the Midwest by the end of the
period.
Mild temperatures will continue, with ridge/valley differences
also persisting for lows. South to southwest low level flow will
keep ridges milder at night. The flow will probably be strong
enough to even keep our western valleys mixed and milder on
Wednesday night, but eastern valleys should still be able to
decouple from the flow long enough to chill more.
Will include some patchy valley fog tonight, mainly in southeast
KY. However, evapotranspiration is becoming less of a factor as
time goes by due to the seasonal death of green vegetation and
lack of recent rainfall, and our fog season is winding down.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT TUE OCT 29 2024
The forecast period begins with the area under the regime of the
warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. To the west, an
upper-level jet streak and trough are forecast to pivot into the
Great Lakes. At the surface, a low and associated cold front will
lift into the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the front, the area will be
under the regime of surface high pressure with high temperatures
climbing into the upper-70s. As the front approaches, increasing
chances of PoP will exist into Thursday evening and through early
Friday morning. Forecast soundings ahead of the front show a real
lack of instability which could limit the overall thunderstorm
potential. Also, the evening/overnight timing of FROPA will limit
the thunderstorm potential as well.
As the front exits early Friday morning, high pressure will build
back into the area. The quick moving surface high will shift
eastward through the weekend and temperatures are forecast to warm
up again moving into next week. The coldest night of the period is
forecast to be Saturday night with lows in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, but as flow around the high shifts to the east, warmer
temperatures are expected into next week. Also aiding to the warm-
up is another approaching system. A longwave trough is forecast
to move onshore Saturday night and quickly traverse across the
Great Basin into the Central Plains by the end of the period.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching cold front could
advect another round of near record-breaking highs for the first
week of November. Also, as the warm front lifts northeast into the
region, the PoP will increase in association with warm FROPA.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by a cold front bringing
widespread wetting rain to the forecast area. Total rainfall amounts
are expected to range from 0.20 along the high terrain in
southeast KY to 0.60" west of I-75. High pressure will return for
the weekend with near seasonal highs. An approaching system will
bring near record-breaking highs to the area for early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2024
Aside from localized valley fog early this morning in southeast
Kentucky, VFR conditions will hold through the period. Winds will
be around 10 kts or less during the day - generally from the
south to southwest - and light to calm at night.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 30, 1:40 AM EDT---------------
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