CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 4:22 AM EDT275
FXUS61 KCLE 310822
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
422 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure will lift through the northern Great
Lakes later today, dragging a strong cold front through the
region tonight. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes
Friday and Saturday before moving to the New England coast
Sunday to allow a warm front to lift across the region Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
One more day of very warm temperatures and windy conditions is on
tap for today before a strong cold front brings an airmass change.
Early this morning, the mid/upper trough swinging into the Plains
can be seen on Infrared satellite and water vapor loops while a
mid/upper ridge lingers along the East Coast. Deep southwesterly
flow in between and forcing from a 110-120 knot H3 jet is driving a
long line of showers and thunderstorms along the associated cold
front from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Ark-La-Tx region.
Temperatures have remained very mild overnight due to the increasing
high and mid level clouds and continued southerly flow, with
generally low/mid 60s early this morning. This will allow for quick
warming again this morning. NAM and RAP forecast soundings suggest a
window of mixing to at least 900 mb before the showers move in from
west to east this afternoon, and with the strong SW flow and 850 mb
temps still running 13-14 C, we should easily see highs in the
mid/upper 70s again, with near 80 in NE Ohio and NW PA. This will
tie or break some records for the third consecutive day, so see
climate section for details.
Regarding winds today, a 50-55 knot low-level jet in the 850-925 mb
layer is expected to punch into the region as the mid/upper trough
axis to the west lifts into the northern and central Great Lakes
this afternoon and evening. The trough will start to dig somewhat
again in response to partial phasing with a northern stream
mid/upper trough in Quebec, and this leads to a 115-120 knot H3 jet
streak over Lower Michigan which drives the strengthening low-level
jet. The aforementioned mixing as the boundary layer warms this
morning will tap into this low-level jet energy leading to gusty S
to SW winds at the surface. However, the challenge is how long will
the potential for strong winds last? Forecast soundings show a
roughly 2 to 3 hour window from about 15-18Z when the profile can
mix to at least 900 mb before the showers move in from the west and
reduce the mixing. This leads to lower than normal confidence for
winds to reach 50 mph given a set up like this. Looking at DESI,
HREF probabilities for wind gusts of 50 mph or greater have trended
upward, with probabilities now 30 to 60% in parts of NW and north
central Ohio. This makes us believe that even though the window is
small, there should be some gusts to 50 mph out that way, so issued
a Wind Advisory from 13-18Z for much of NW and north central Ohio.
Farther east, winds will also be gusty in NE Ohio and NW PA,
especially along the lakeshore, but the more SSW component vs SW
should keep peak gusts more in the 40-45 mph range.
In terms of rainfall, the cold front looks to cross the region in
the roughly 00-06Z timeframe this evening into tonight as the
associated surface low lifts across Upper Michigan. The
aforementioned jet streak across Lower Michigan this afternoon and
evening will place northern Ohio and NW PA under the right entrance
region, strengthening frontogenesis forcing for decent coverage of
showers ahead of the front. The latest HREF guidance has trended
lower on QPF and total coverage due to a short window of deeper
moisture return, but it still looks to rain at least a little in all
areas this afternoon and evening. Have categorical PoPs starting in
NW Ohio around 18Z, reaching the I-71 corridor by 20Z and the OH/PA
border by about 00Z. Each area will have a 3 to 5 hour window of the
most frequent showers, although they may not be too steady. Included
a little thunder in NW Ohio where HREF probabilities viewed in DESI
show near 100% probs for surface based CAPE over 100 joules, but
probabilities drop very quickly farther east where little to no CAPE
is expected, so do not expect any thunder anywhere else. Even in NW
Ohio, 100 joules is on the high end, so we are talking very low CAPE
values which will make any thunder isolated. What is more likely is
that some of the showers will be convective which will drag some of
the stronger winds aloft to the surface, so could see some brief
convective gusts over 50 mph in addition to the gusty synoptic winds.
The region will rapidly dry out from west to east tonight as drier
air works into the region. WNW flow across the lake and 850 mb temps
around 0 to -2 C as the mid/upper trough axis swings through the
Great Lakes could bring some light lake-effect showers to NW PA
Friday morning, but nothing organized is expected given the dry
airmass, boundary layer shear, and anticyclonic flow as surface
ridging quickly builds in. Any showers will dissipate Friday
afternoon as the surface ridge builds into the central Great Lakes.
Highs Friday will be much more seasonable for the first of November,
with generally mid/upper 50s. Far NE Ohio and NW PA will stay in the
low 50s. Lows tonight will cool into the low/mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to be situated over the eastern potion of
the Great Lakes throughout Friday night and Saturday. There will be
some lingering lake effect clouds over NEOH and NWPA, though will
clear out by mid-day Saturday. On Sunday, the high pressure will
build eastward towards New England ahead of the next upper level
trough. A warm front will make its way north across the region
throughout the day on Sunday and bringing with it increased rain
chances. Stuck with likely PoPs for the majority of the CWA though,
along the lake shore the rain chances will be higher towards Sunday
night. Temperatures on Saturday will start out chilly being
underneath the high pressure. Areas away from the lake will see lows
into the low 30s and 40s for those near the lakeshore. Highs
Saturday will be into the mid 50s to low 60s. Sunday with the warm
front passing through, temperatures will rise into the 60s for
highs.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday will fall as the warm front has
pushed further north, though there will still be the chances for
showers across the region. Temperatures will be much warmer, being
in the warm sector, with highs into the low to mid 70s for Monday
and Tuesday. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will
traverse through the Great Lakes region with rain showers likely and
maybe a rumble of thunder or two. Temperatures will fall behind the
cold front and cool to be more seasonal for the middle of the week
as high pressure builds in.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Similar early morning forecast to the past few days this morning
with low-level wind shear due to a jet in the 850-925 mb layer
above an inversion. This will continue through mid morning
before southwesterly surface gusts develop. Expect the winds to
be stronger today as a strong cold front approaches and
interacts with the mid/upper jet energy, and that will be the
main aviation concern. SW winds will increase to 15-25 knots by
mid to late morning with gusts of 30-40 knots at times this
afternoon. Any gusts that reach 40 knots will be isolated and
mainly within rain showers that can bring the stronger winds to
the surface. Expect winds to veer more to the W and decrease
slightly to 15-20 knots later this evening and tonight as the
cold front passes, but gusts of 20-25 knots will continue.
In terms of the rain showers, expect an area of showers ahead
of the front to move in from west to east this afternoon and
evening. Timing of the greatest coverage will be 18-00Z around
KTOL and KFDY, 20-03Z around KCLE and KMFD, 22-05Z around KCAK
and KYNG, and 00-06Z around KERI. It will not rain during those
full time windows, but showers will be around quite frequently.
At this time, expect mainly low end VFR in the showers, but some
brief MVFR cannot be ruled out. As the showers exit the region
tonight, some lower clouds could bring some MVFR cigs. The best
chance for this is at KCAK and KYNG, so only put it in those
TAFs for now.
Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered rain showers Sunday
through Monday.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday due to the
strong, gusty winds over the lake. Winds will continue to be out of
the southwest at 10-25 kts until late Thursday night when they shift
to be more westerly with the cold front passage. The winds will
increase during that time to 20-30 kts with gusts up to 35 kts.
There will be a small chance of near gale winds Thursday night into
early Friday morning with the frontal passage. Due to the stronger
southwesterly winds over the western basin, water levels may fall
near or below the critical mark for safe marine navigation for
Thursday afternoon into the night.
Behind the cold front on Friday, winds will shift out of the
northwest and subside to 10-15 kts with the stronger winds in the
eastern basin. High pressure will build in Friday night and winds
will become variable and less than 10 kts. On Sunday, a warm front
will move northward across the lake and winds will shift to be
southeasterly at 5-10 kts, then strengthen to 10-15 kts out of the
south throughout the day on Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record Warm High Temperatures:
Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie
10-31 80(1950) 78(1950) 82(1950) 79(1950) 78(1933) 76(1927)
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this
afternoon for OHZ006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>145.
Low Water Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
for LEZ142>144-162>164.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for LEZ146>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM...Kennedy
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Garuckas
CLIMATE...
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 31, 4:22 AM EDT---------------
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