IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 7:28 AM EDT237
FXUS63 KIWX 271128
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
728 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool temperatures in the low to mid 30s tomorrow night are
expected.
- A sharp warming trend can be expected Monday through Wednesday
with temperatures rising to near record highs around 80
Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Next chance for widespread rain arrives late Wednesday night
into early Thursday. Trick or treaters Thursday evening have
the greatest chance of being dry west of IN-15.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
Surface high pressure passes through the area today keeping dry
weather going. Mid level riding also continues the dryness through
Monday. Monday night, a warm front rises northward into Michigan as
a moisture axis spreads across the Great Lakes. Still, the best
forcing is in Michigan so that's where the highest PoPs will reside
and will restrict PoPs to along and north of US-6 as a result. One
other issue for Tuesday is the gusty winds. With the 45 kt low level
jet creeping into the northwest as a low pressure system deepens in
the western Great Lakes, if we are able to mix, then we could end up
with winds that approach advisory threshold of around 40 kts and
could see fire weather conditions with drying dew points in addition
to the wind. Between today and Tuesday, warm advection commencing is
expected to allow a warming and moistening (even with Tuesday's
potential mixing episode) trend allowing highs to rise from today's
either side of 60 degrees to Tuesday's either side of 80 degrees.
Tonight's lows back in the 30s, maybe at or slightly warmer than
last night, look to be the last of such temperatures for a while.
Next Thursday and Friday night's lows are forecast to stay in the
upper 30s or above.
Blocking takes hold on the CONUS pattern Tuesday as high pressure
slows down in the western and central Atlantic. Over the Plains
States, a trough undergoes a cyclonic wave break as an area of
low pressure becomes cutoff from the upper flow. This allows a
cold front to slow down in the middle Mississippi Valley between
Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong southwest to northeast upper
jet allows the moisture plume to go fairly far northward into
Canada as early as Tuesday evening. Wednesday night, the highest
PWATs of 2 to 3 SDs above normal will be across our forecast
area and there is a connection to the Gulf, which indicates the
moisture content of this plume. However, it still appears that
instability will be a limiting factor for this rain chance as it
even struggles to reach 100 J/kg of MUCAPE. Another factor not
in favor of high amounts of rain is that it still appears that
storm motion is expected to be fairly fast limiting residence
time in any one area. With it being Halloween, on Thursday, also
want to communicate that areas west of IN-15 appear to have the
greatest chance, as of this forecast, of being completely dry
and that may shift to areas west of I-69 in the next day or
two's model runs.
Dry weather returns behind Thursday's cold front until our next
chance for rain comes in Saturday night. An early look at the
pattern indicates that a trough stalls out in the western CONUS as a
ridge becomes anchored in the Gulf of Mexico. This would stream
moisture up to the area and the times of rain may continue into the
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 723 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites. It will be dry
as high pressure settles in place, keeping skies mostly clear
(outside of high clouds) and winds calm or light out of the SE.
There could be patchy ground fog but don't expect anything
impactful at either terminal.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...MCD
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 7:28 AM EDT---------------
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