PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 2:57 AM CDT459
FXUS63 KPAH 290757
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
257 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and gusty south winds expected today
and Wednesday.
- Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread across the region
late Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday. Rain tapers
off from the northwest to southeast late Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening.
- Dry and near seasonal temperatures expected for Friday, with a
warming trend over the weekend.
- Chances of rain return to the forecast for late in the weekend
associated with a more unsettled weather pattern.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
As of 2 AM this morning, temperatures were in the upper 60's to
lower 70's underneath partly cloudy skies. GOES imagery shows
mid to high level clouds streaming through the Quad State. An
upper level trough is currently across the western CONUS with
downstream ridging across the Mississippi Valley and southeast.
Surface high pressure is analyzed across the northeast and into
Quebec. A surface low is developing lee of the Rockies, across
eastern Colorado. Today will feature another warm and breezy day
as south winds remain elevated within a tightened pressure
gradient. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts as high as
20-30 mph can be expected. Highs will rise into the low to mid
80's today underneath mostly clear skies. These temperatures may
come close to record values. The wind/RH conditions today may
approach more elevated levels, although they will likely be
short of red flag conditions. By Wednesday, the upper trough
across the Rockies begins to open as it ejects northeast with
strong upper ridging dominating the eastern CONUS. Conditions
for Wednesday look like a repeat with warm temperatures in the
low to mid 80's and breezy conditions.
A front is expected to develop across the plains and move
eastward as the parent trough moves off the Rockies. The
associated surface low and cold front will move into western
portions of the area early Thursday and push eastward throughout
the day. Moisture advection out ahead of this front will allow
moisture to surge north with PW's increasing upwards of 1.5-1.75
inches as the front arrives. Widespread showers will accompany
the front bringing much needed rainfall to the area. Depending
on timing of this front, some weak destabilization could result
in a few thunderstorms as well. The lack of instability should
keep the threat of any strong to severe storms very low. The
front will exit from NW to SE Thursday afternoon and evening.
Some showers may remain across southwest Indiana and west
Kentucky for Halloween activities.
High pressure sets in behind the front for Friday ushering in a
cooler and drier airmass for the end of the week. Highs on
Friday will top out in the low to mid 60's. The surface high
quickly moves off to the northeast allowing winds to return to
the south for the weekend. Moderating temperatures result with
highs back into the 70's. Brief ridging aloft on Saturday should
keep the area mostly, with southwest flow aloft behind the
ridge resulting in increased cloud cover. Toward the latter half
of the weekend a more unsettled weather pattern develops with
chances of rain back into the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024
VFR forecast for all sites. Mid to high level bases expected
through the first half of today with clearing skies this
afternoon and continuing into tonight. South winds 7-12 kts
expected this morning with some sporadic gusts up to 20 kts.
Breezy south winds will continue throughout the day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 2:57 AM CDT---------------
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