MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 5:20 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...413
FXUS64 KMOB 211020
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
520 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Upper level ridging will build over the area through Wednesday.
The subsidence beneath the ridge will maintain a dry pattern with
mostly clear skies and above normal warmth. High pressure over the
western Atlantic will maintain a light southeasterly flow.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s
to around 90 inland and low to mid 80s near the coast. Lows
tonight will be in the low/mid 60s inland to around 70 near the
coast. /13
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Dry and warm will be the predominant forecast through the holiday
weekend.
Mid and upper level ridging begins to dampen out as we roll into
Thursday as a series of shortwaves slides around the periphery of
the ridge. Flow aloft turns zonal through the first half of the
weekend as shortwaves pivot across the region. Meanwhile, a surface
high over the western Atlantic maintains a firm grip over parts of
the Southeast and eastern Gulf through Saturday. The influence of
deep layer ridging should keep rain chances minimal through the
weekend with only a 15-20% POP in the afternoon and early evening
generally north of the Highway 84 corridor (further away from the
influence of the ridging) Friday through Sunday.
A more potent shortwave dives across the Plains early next week and
may bring the next substantial chance for showers and storms beyond
Monday. While we stuck to the blended guidance on Days 7 and 8,
the best chance for showers and storms likely won't develop until
Day 8 (Tuesday).
Heat indices soar up to 100F over the holiday weekend with
daytime high temperatures rising into the mid to low 90s across
inland communities (upper 80s at the beaches). Overnight lows only
fall into the 70s this weekend.
Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Saturday with the
RCMOS probabilities remaining LOW through at least Sunday.
Probabilities do begin to increase toward the MODERATE category
by the afternoon hours on Memorial Day. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 516 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and waves
near the coast due to the afternoon seabreeze. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 86 67 86 68 86 71 87 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Pensacola 83 69 85 71 85 73 85 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Destin 83 71 84 73 84 74 84 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Evergreen 87 63 90 66 90 67 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Waynesboro 89 65 89 66 90 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10
Camden 87 64 89 66 89 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 10
Crestview 88 63 90 66 89 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 21, 5:20 AM CDT ...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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