MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 12:09 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...830
FXUS64 KMOB 230509
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1209 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Patchy fog will develop overnight into early Wednesday morning
across portions of the region. Visibility may be reduced to MVFR
to IFR thresholds at times and possibly very briefly to LIFR
thresholds in a few spots. VFR otherwise becomes prevalent again
on Wednesday. Winds remain light across most of the region, except
becoming southwest 5-10 knots along the immediate coast by
Wednesday afternoon. /21
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
A combination of an upper low off the East Coast and upper level
high pressure over old Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico will
create dry northwesterly upper flow over the Southeast through mid
week. A surface ridge that has set up along the Appalachians will
bring a general northeast to easterly flow to land areas through
Wednesday. An upper level shortwave will move southeast through the
upper flow over the Southeast late Wednesday through Wednesday
night, moving a weak cold front south over eastern portions of the
Southeast. A surface ridge stretching southwest along the
Appalachians sees the southern end become more east/west over the
northern Gulf coast. Guidance is advertising a slug of moisture
moving west in this flow over the northern Gulf coast today into
Wednesday before a band of drier air moves south over the northern
Gulf coast ahead of the front. Resultant relative humidity levels
over the forecast area remain an issue. For this afternoon, the
driest air remains west of the Alabama River. The re-enforcing band
of drier air Wednesday will mover drier air back over the entire
forecast area. This drier air will create a more hazardous
environment for burning. Winds are expected to remain light,
tempering the risk.
Temperatures remain well above seasonal norms, with high
temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid 80s today,
mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight and
Wednesday night are expected to range from the low to mid 50s well
inland, upper 50s to around 60s south of I-10 to the coast.
Even with the continued northeast/easterly flow through the week,
the light nature of the winds keep swell on area beaches low
through Friday, with a low risk of rip currents through the week.
/16
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
An upper ridge will move east across the area Thursday into
Thursday night. The ridge will be replaced by a weak upper trough
Friday into Saturday as a shortwave moves across the Ohio Valley.
This will send a weak front into the area Saturday into Sunday.
The lack of significant deep layer moisture return will keep
conditions dry through the period. Global models diverge late in
the period with the GFS developing an upper low over the
southeast early next week, while the ECMWF builds an upper ridge.
Due to the uncertainty, will maintain a dry and warm extended
period. High temps will be in the mid and upper 80s late in the
week, cooling into the low 80s over the weekend into early next
week. /13
MARINE...
Issued at 406 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024
A surface ridge stretching northeast along the Appalachians will
shift south to the northern Gulf coast through the week. A light to
a times moderate northeast to easterly flow becomes a light, more
diurnally onshore/offshore flow through the week. No impacts
expected over area waters. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 56 86 58 85 59 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 62 84 62 83 63 83 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 65 84 65 84 65 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 54 88 54 87 55 88 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 54 88 54 87 56 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 52 87 54 86 56 86 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 54 88 54 87 55 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 12:09 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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