PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 5:31 AM EDT430
FXUS61 KPBZ 270931
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
531 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and seasonable weather will continue today under high
pressure. The high will maintain dry weather through mid week as
it moves east of the area. Southerly wind will also result in a
warming trend until rain chances return with a Thursday cold
front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and seasonable today
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Made a few minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover based
on the latest observations and satellite imagery. Otherwise,
high pressure, centered across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper
Ohio Valley region, will maintain dry weather today. Ascent with
a secondary upper jet will result in a thin cirrus cloud layer
across the area, mainly the first half of the day. Mixing to
around 4kft should keep high temperatures near seasonable
levels.
Low dew points will mix down this afternoon, with RH levels in
the 20 to 30 percent range over much of the region. Will
highlight this in the fire weather forecast, though wind will be
light.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather and a warming trend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The center of the surface high will shift east of the region
tonight. Warm advection will begin late today, and continue
overnight, on the western side of the high. The atmosphere will
decouple again, and with low dew points and clear skies in
place, lows should again be in the 30 to 35 degree range for
most areas.
A ridge is then expected to build across the SE CONUS through
the Eastern Great Lakes region Monday through Tuesday night.
Rising 500mb heights, and warm advection, will result in a
warming trend each day. 500 mb heights are progged to be around
584 dam by Tuesday afternoon. Some increase in cloud cover is
expected Monday night as a warm front moves by to our north,
though no precipitation is expected. Otherwise, dry weather and
mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected.
Temperatures should be around 5 degrees above average on Monday,
with readings around 15 degrees above normal on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm through Wednesday
- Rain chances return with a Thursday cold front
- Cooler to end the week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate the upper ridge will persist across the
region through Wednesday. THe warmest day of the week should be
Wednesday, when 500mb heights are progged to reach 588 to 590
dam. Mixing and a SW wind should result in highs from 15 to 20
degrees above average. Nudged temperatures toward the higher end
of NBM guidance with these conditions expected.
The ridge will track eastward Wednesday night and Thursday, as a
trough and surface cold front advance out of the Midwest. The
front is expected to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley
region Thursday and Thursday night. Showers are likely with the
front with sufficient moisture and jet supported ascent. At this
time, QPF amounts are light with less than a quarter of an inch
likely.
The front will exit the region Friday, with broad upper level
troughing across the area. Decreasing rain chances and cooler
temperatures are expected. High pressure and warm advection
should return dry and warmer weather for Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR expected throughout the TAF period. Strong radiational
cooling overnight with light wind and clear skies makes river
valley fog possible around sunrise, but confidence in impacts at
area terminals remains too low to warrant a mention in TAFs.
Winds remain light Sunday, shifting to east-northeasterly by
the afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable
through the period.
.Outlook...
VFR is expected to continue through Tuesday as high pressure
builds across the region. Efficient nighttime radiational
cooling will support the potential for river valley fog in the
06z-12z timeframe each night, which could briefly impact
adjacent terminals.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Shallenberger
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 5:31 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
