ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 9:38 AM EDT590
FXUS61 KILN 261338
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
938 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure and a cool, dry airmass will remain in
place across the region through the weekend. A warming trend
will develop through mid week before the next chance for rain
arrives on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fcst remains on track for what will be a quiet near term period
locally. The patchy fog in WC OH has dissipated, with just a few
cirrus streaming in from the NW through the daytime as the
lower-level clouds near the front continue to push S and out of
the local area into late morning. This will lead to mostly sunny
to sunny skies for the majority of the daytime period.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure will begin to build in from the northwest
through the day. As drier air advects into the region, expect
to see a continued decreasing cloud trend this morning with
mostly sunny skies this afternoon. Northerly low level flow/CAA
will persist through the day with afternoon highs only in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The surface high will build overhead through tonight before
beginning to shift off to the east through the day on Sunday.
Light winds and clear skies tonight will lead to good
radiational cooling with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s.
Skies will be mostly sunny on Sunday but temperatures will
remain cool with daytime highs again in the upper 50s to lower
60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The ~1030 mb surface high pressure will be moving off toward New
England at the start of the extended period and we'll have one last
night of calm winds and strong radiational cooling. Overnight lows
into Monday morning fall into the mid/low 30s with clear skies;
Monday's highs reach the upper 60s/low 70s.
By Monday evening, a pattern change will be on the horizon as the
upper level ridge scoots east and deep troughing moves into the
Pacific northwest; strong southwesterly flow/ WAA is introduced to
the Midwest region. This translates to a return of moisture and
warmth as a LLJ sets up from the TX panhandle all the way through
the Great Lakes, pumping Gulf air into the region. Tuesday and
Wednesday we can expect dry conditions but gusty winds (25-30 MPH
gusts) and a notable uptick in temperatures (highs in the upper
70s/low 80s) and Tds (50s-60s).
By Halloween (Thursday) the trough to our west will finally be
ejecting off toward the northeast, dragging its attendant surface
feature/ cold front through the Ohio Valley. A band of precipitation
is forecast to move through the area on Thursday, proceeded by
continued breezy conditions. Right now, instability doesn't look too
robust, so did not include thunder in the grids just yet, however,
this may need to change as the CAMs begin to resolve the system in
coming days. Overall QPF footprint still doesn't look to impactful
either, perhaps a quarter of an inch for some lucky spots.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure and a dry airmass will build into the region
through tonight. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. North winds to around 10 knots today will become light
and variable this evening and into the overnight hours.
OUTLOOK...Gusty winds are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...KC/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 9:38 AM EDT---------------
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