JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 8:15 AM EDT768
FXUS63 KJKL 261215
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
815 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain chances taper off and clouds clear behind a departing cold
front today.
- Temperatures will drop to near or slightly below normal for this
weekend before moderating back above normal through the middle
of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2024
Forecast remains on track this morning. Only changes were to bring
hourly temperature/dew point forecast in line with observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 447 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2024
Low level stratus clouds will continue to make their way into
eastern Kentucky through the morning, with showers becoming
confined mainly south of the Hal Rogers Parkway & Kentucky 80
corridor. Sprinkles will linger along this corridor and north,
through mid day. Low stratus clouds are also expected to linger a
bit, clearing out in the early afternoon north of I-64. However,
clouds won't clear until around sunset adjacent to the Virginia
and Tennessee state lines. Highs today may be suppressed due to
the thick cloud cover hanging around during most peak heating
hours. Highs are forecasted to generally remain in the low to mid
60s. Cold air advection will also be present through the day with
north-northeasterly winds strongest with the frontal passage this
morning, generally 5-10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph. Localized
areas of fog are expected to develop this evening with lows
generally in the 30s for most locations. Sunday, lingering fog
should mix out by mid morning, leading to mostly sunny skies and
highs in the mid 60s under northeasterly winds 5-10 mph.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 601 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2024
Dry weather and a gradual warming trend is expected through
Wednesday night. A cold front approaches with our next rain
chances on Thursday and Thursday night.
The 26/00z model suite analysis shows a wavy longwave pattern
over North America. To our east, a deep trough extends from
northern Nunavut southward through eastern Canada and New England
to off the Mid-Atlantic coast. To our west, a ridge axis extends
from Mexico northward across the Plains, across Manitoba, and
into southwestern Nunavut. Another trough further upstream
extends from the Northwest Territories southward to off the
British Columbia coastline and over the Eastern Pacific. At the
surface, ~1029 mb high pressure is centered over the Mid-
Atlantic.
As the surface high/upper level ridge drift further east on
Monday, warmth and moisture will begin seeping back across eastern
Kentucky on a developing southerly return flow. Meanwhile, the
Pacific trough will continue digging as it comes ashore the West
Coast. As that trough crosses the Rockies, it will initiate lee
cyclogenesis east of the Central Rockies along a cold front
extending from the High Plains to another surface low tracking
over the Canadian prairie provinces. The surface pressure
gradient will become relatively tight over eastern Kentucky from
Tuesday through Thursday as the trough propels the cold front
across the Plains and into the Lower Ohio Valley. By Thursday
night, the upper-level trough is dampening and the cold front
becomes more anemic as it slides through eastern Kentucky. High
pressure passes through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Friday in
the wake of the cold front.
In sensible terms, look for high temperature to warm from the
lower to middle 70s on Monday to the mid 70s to near 80 on
Wednesday and Thursday. Nighttime lows follow a similar warming
trend, starting off in the lower 30s to mid 40s on Sunday night
rising to the lower 50s to lower 60s by Wednesday night. Fair
weather can be expected through Wednesday night with exception of
nighttime/early morning fog in the favored river valley locales.
Winds will become breezy during the day, especially from Tuesday
through Thursday with gusts of 15 to 25 mph likely. The next
chance for rain arrives from the northwest on Thursday and
Thursday night with the passage of a cold front. The NBM suggests
a 50 to 80 percent chance for 0.1 inch of rainfall or greater as
the boundary passes. Cooler and briefly drier weather returns on
Friday with highs returning to the mid 60s to near 70.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 26 2024
TAF sites continue to see a decrease in ceiling heights this
morning, with a frontal passage continuing to bring isolated showers
and lower stratus clouds to the area. Cigs will most likely
reduce to MVFR conditions at some point between 12-15Z, before
improving from north to south between 15-22Z. Winds will be light
out of the north-northeast less than 10KTS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 26, 8:15 AM EDT---------------
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