ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 3:09 AM EDT461
FXUS61 KILN 240709
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
309 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will lead to dry and seasonable temperatures
today. Warmer temperatures are expected on Friday along with a
chance of showers as a cold front approaches from the west. Dry
and seasonable conditions will return for Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Surface high pressure will build into the region through the
day. With a dry airmass in place, expect mostly sunny skies.
However, with some weak low level CAA persisting into early
afternoon, some scattered cu development will be possible,
especially across northeast portions of our area. Temperatures
will be seasonable with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
In progressive westerly flow aloft, a weak mid level short wave
will approach from the west tonight and then move east across
the region through the day on Friday. This will be accompanied
by an associated cold front that will move into northwest
portions of our area through Friday afternoon.
Increasing southerly flow ahead of the front will lead to
developing WAA through the day on Friday. While there will also
be some increase in moisture ahead of the front, the overall deeper
moisture looks to remain somewhat limited. As a result, expect
the best chances for pcpn to be across our northwest areas
Friday morning, with decreasing chances further to the south and
east during the day. Expect the pcpn to be primarily showers,
but with some weak instabilities developing, it will be tough
to rule out an embedded thunderstorm.
In the developing WAA, highs on Friday will range from the mid
60s north to the mid 70s in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will be moving through the region at the start of the
extended period, giving the region its first chance for rain in
quite some time. However, QPF footprint appears to be low, with the
majority of ensemble guidance coming in at less than 0.10"...
unfortunately, not providing much in terms of drought relief. While
the system will be mostly dry, it will herald in a quick blast of
cold air advection.
Behind the front, northwesterly flow and strong surface high
pressure will move into the region. This results in cooler
temperatures on Saturday with highs reaching the upper 50s to low
60s. As the surface high pressure moves directly over the CWA
Saturday night, overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into
the mid to low 30s. With the strong high over us, minimal cloud
cover, and light winds, would not be surprised if temperatures over
achieve. Sunday, the high begins to shift east and we remain dry,
while temperatures return to near climatological normals. Highs will
be in the low 60s.
By the start of the work week, the upper level ridge becomes even
more amplified as a trough digs in off to our west near the four
corners region. This promotes strong southwesterly flow into the
Ohio Valley as the ridge moves over the CWA. Above average
temperatures return by mid-week and highs should reach the mid 70s
yet again. As the pattern progresses, the trough deamplifies and
weakens quite substantially by the time is reaches the Midwest. For
now, have included at least chance PoPs in the forecast around the
Halloween time frame, however, the signal suggests a weaker
event.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some spotty MVFR stratocumulus may drift down across portions
of central ohio through the morning hours in the wake of the
earlier cold front. Otherwise, a few VFR cu will be possible
later this morning and into mid afternoon before dissipating
through late afternoon. Some high and mid level clouds will
begin to spread in from the west later tonight ahead of the next
system.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday into Friday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JGL
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 3:09 AM EDT---------------
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