JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 12:47 PM EDT266
FXUS63 KJKL 251647
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1247 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing cold front will bring increased rain and storm chances
to the area this evening.
- Temperatures will drop to near or slightly below normal for the
weekend before moderating to back above normal through the
middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
We are continuing to see rain showers develop along what is
likely the warm front ahead of low pressure and cold front to the
northwest. This feature has been showing up well in the 925mb
frontogenesis and even some signal in the deep moisture flux
field. The CAMs have been behind on this with HRRR initializing
the best given it faster cycle. Given this opted to add in a
larger area of slight chances of rain (15-20 percent) mainly in
the far east and southeast portions of Kentucky. Overall still
think the better chances of seeing rain will be later this
afternoon and tonight. Outside these adjustments will make some
minor updates to align with the latest obs and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 1042 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
A weak disturbance is moving across the area this morning ahead
of a deeper mid-level trough axis and cold front to our west. This
weaker disturbance is leading to some isolated showers this
morning and therefore added in a 15 percent chance of rain for a
few hours in some locations. Most areas will remain dry until
later today into tonight when the greater height falls and cold
front arrive. Outside this a fairly minor update overall to blend
in the latest obs and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 803 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
Mid-level cloud cover has been a bit more abundant than forecast
(due to a weak warm front) across northern and central locales.
This warranted an increase in the sky cover forecast to at least
partly cloudy over the northern two thirds of the CWA through the
remainder of the morning. Hourly temperature forecast was also
brought into line with observations. Otherwise, no other
substantial changes were made to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 504 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
Current conditions show pockets of valley fog developing across
river valleys in eastern Kentucky. This valley fog should mix out
by mid-morning. Expect a warm yet breezy day today with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area. Adjustments were made
to the winds for this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, bumping
wind gusts up to 15-25 mph. A cold front will move across eastern
Kentucky this evening out of the northwest. Increasing clouds can
be expected with shower and thundershower chances increasing after
6 PM. This front will continue to progress southeast across
Kentucky through the evening and overnight, mostly clearing out by
8 AM Saturday. Some showers may linger for a few additional hours
across the southeast ridges of Pike, Letcher, and Harlan counties.
By the time its all said and done, most areas will see up to a
tenth of an inch of rain. Lows won't have a ridge valley split,
with lower cloud cover expected overnight. Lows will generally
range in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Saturday, an upper level trough axis is well north and east of the
area, up in southern Quebec, while a ridge axis is located over
the Rocky Mountains in the west. This sets up quasi-zonal flow
across the state. Clouds will linger in the morning, with clearing
starting late morning north of the I-64 corridor, and during the
afternoon for areas south. This will limit daytime heating, with
highs expected to range in the low to mid 60s through the day.
North winds of 5-10 mph can be expected with gusts up to 20 mph.
Dew points may be slow to drop off compared to surrounding ridge
areas, leading to the potential for areas of fog to develop in
river valley locations. Lows will generally be in the low to mid
30s in valleys, and upper 30s to lower 40s along ridge tops.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 533 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
A gradual warming trend with dry weather is expected through
Wednesday night. The next chance of rain begins Thursday with an
approaching cold front.
The 25/00z model analysis shows 500H troughing extending from
Nunavut southward into the Eastern CONUS at the start of the
period. Upstream, a 500H ridge extends from the Four Corners
northward across the Canadian prairie provinces. West of the
ridge, another trough extends from the eastern North Slope down
into the Eastern Pacific. At the surface, high pressure is
centered from the Southern Great Lakes to the Central
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic.
The surface high pressure slowly drifts eastward to off the Atlantic
Seaboard by Tuesday night as upper level ridge axis passes overhead.
The next trough (of Pacific origin) descends the eastern slopes
of the Rockies toward the end of the forecast period and pushes a
cold front into the Lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday. The
pressure gradient between this approaching front and the departing
high pressure will lead to increased breeziness during the
daylight hours from Tuesday through Thursday with BUFKIT mixed-layer
momentum transfer suggesting southwesterly gusts peaking in the
10 to 20 kt range for most locations.
In sensible terms, look for fair weather through Wednesday night,
with exception of nighttime/early morning fog in the favored river
valley locales. Daily maximum temperatures warm from the lower to
upper 60s, north to south, on Sunday to the mid 70s to near 80 on
Wednesday and Thursday. Nighttime lows follow a similar warming
trend, starting off in the lower 30s to lower 40s on Sunday night
but rising to the upper 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday night.
Southwesterly winds will become breezy during the daylight hours,
especially from Tuesday onward. The next chance for rain arrives
from the northwest on Thursday, though many locations are favored
to remain dry until beyond the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
A cold front approaches today from the northwest and will lead to
lower cigs and viz in scattered shower activity by the end of the
TAF period. Southwest winds will increase during the afternoon
today, with a few gusts as high as 15 to 20 kts possible in the
afternoon despite sustained winds likely staying below 10 kts. As
the precipitation ends towards the end of the TAF period, low
MVFR to high IFR ceilings will most likely occur.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 25, 12:47 PM EDT---------------
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