LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:05 AM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...473
FXUS64 KLIX 190805
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
305 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Not as cool this morning with locations north of I10/12 generally
in the upper 40s or lower to middle 50s respectively. South shore
is still in the upper 60s. Low level moisture has increased
across most of the region, especially across the western tier.
Overall, this will modestly continue over the next 24 to 36 hours
meaning temperatures will continue the warming trend, especially
considering the higher heights and thicknesses.
Through the short term, an H5 ridge will continue to spread west
from Florida and move across the northern Gulf. Again, this will
help continue the overall warming trend. At the surface, a 1030mb
high over the mid MS River will continue to move into our region.
This feature will interact with lower pressure across the western
Caribbean (TS Nadine has developed down that way, but will remain
well south precluding a threat to the Gulf Coast). That said, the
pressure gradient will develop a strong east to west fetch across
the Gulf, which will enhanced wave heights and perhaps cause some
minor coastal flooding for the eastern coastlines including
Hancock Co., MS and Shell Beach. The highest potential naturally
would be during high tide cycles. Otherwise, dry conditions
expected from start to finish of the short term period. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
The region will remain under a 592dam H5 ridge that is forecast to
move west across the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a
1030mb high pressure settles over the Tennessee/Ohio River
Valley. This feature along with lower pressures across the western
Caribbean will keep a tight pressure gradient across the Gulf of
Mexico. Going into the start of the new workweek, upper level
ridging will remain, but continue to gradually spread westward
into Texas. This will transition our upper pattern to a dry
northwest flow within the northeast periphery of the weak upper
high. That said, with heights and thicknesses slightly elevated,
temperatures will be a degree or two above average early to mid
week next week with temperatures climbing into the lower to middle
80s with some places approaching 90F late in the week. Otherwise,
with the dry upper levels and nothing to provide lift, rain
chances remain less than 5 percent through the long term period.
(Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Overall, VFR conditions across the terminals tonight.
Southwesterly mid and upper level flow producing SCT-BKN cirrus
level clouds across most terminals. Low level easterly flow is
producing BKN clouds over the Gulf and extreme lower portions of
the Louisiana coastal parishes. Bases of those clouds are
currently around FL050-060. GAO has been reporting ceilings, and
that is, or will be the case overnight at KHUM. Not a lot of
change anticipated in conditions for much of the period. Winds may
be a little stronger on Saturday than Friday afternoon, with
sustained winds near 15 knots possible during much of the daytime
hours. No indications this evening of the localized smoke plume
that impacted KGPT for several hours this morning, so did not
include any visibility restrictions there.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024
Winds and seas will remain elevated across the local Gulf waters.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through much of the
weekend as an easterly swell increases with a strong easterly
fetch develops over the local Gulf waters. Pressure gradient
between lower pressures over the western Caribbean and high
pressure to the north will begin to decrease going into late
Sunday and Monday as high pressure settles southward into the
region. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 78 49 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 83 55 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 79 52 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 78 62 79 61 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 78 55 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 82 52 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Laz064-
070-076-078.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-557.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ550-552-555-
570-572-575-577.
MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Msz068.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534-536-538-
557.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ552-555-570-
572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 3:05 AM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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