PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:46 PM EDT374
FXUS61 KPBZ 241746
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
146 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and more seasonable temperatures are expected
today. Rain chances will return Friday into Saturday with
a cold front. Another warm up is expected early night week with
dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and more seasonable temperature today in the wake of the
cold front
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning lake-enhanced stratocu coverage in a cold advection
northwest flow pattern has diminished in coverage with the loss
of cold advection and 850 mb wind relaxing and gradually backing
off of the lake. Coverage has subsequentially taken on a
convective cumulus nature, but expect that this coverage will
exhibit a diminishing trend through the afternoon as drier air
works in and the cu rule supports this.
The 12z sounding shows an 850 mb temperature near 4C which, with
mostly clear skies, should translate to highs approaching 60F
for PIT and a bit warmer further south and west where slightly
warmer air aloft is able to reestablish under the building
ridge. Surface high pressure and weak warm advection should
boost afternoon high temperatures into the 50s-60s across the
region (near-average). Today will also feature lighter wind with
the departure of yesterday's low level jet. Tonight, temperatures
should quickly drop after sunset as winds calm under mostly
clear skies. Near- to- below freezing temperatures are generally
north and east of Pittsburgh.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Crossing cold front and eventual trough axis passage will
return shower chances Friday into Saturday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Upper-level flow will become more zonal on Friday as broad
troughing digs over the Great Lakes. Strong warm advection ahead
of a cold front will boost high temperatures some 5-10 degrees
above today's. Shower chances will increase as early as late
Friday morning (as indicated by the now-in-range CAMs), with
better coverage more likely in the late afternoon/evening ahead
of the cold frontal passage. Similar to Wednesday, frontal
timing is well ahead of better upper dynamics and moisture will
be limited. Any initial precipitation will battle a substantial
dry layer above 850mb, and overall QPF is expected to be quite
low. Lingering showers will diminish through the overnight as
the trough passes, while a few lake-enhanced showers may
continue north of I-80 into the early morning.
Skies will clear Saturday morning, though cold northwest flow
may once again allow patchy low stratocu to linger. Cold
advection should allow temperatures to return to near average
and very similar to today/tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- High confidence in dry weather and warming temperatures
through at least mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Confidence remains high in dry weather with warming temperatures
through the middle of next week as upper ridging builds and
surface high pressure slowly crosses from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast. Seasonable temperatures on Sunday will warm back into
the 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday as wind backs southerly and
strong warm advection kicks off in return flow by Monday.
Peeking ahead, the probability of hitting 80F on Halloween is
about 15-25% in the metro region. Not likely, but possible,
given our recent over-performance on temperature. It will
certainly be a warm Halloween, regardless.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered stratocu over eastern Ohio this afternoon should
gradually dissipate by this evening, with the rest of the area
already SKC. Expect VFR and calm winds overnight as high
pressure builds across the area, followed by increasing clouds
and southwest winds around 10 knots late in the TAF period ahead
of another approaching cold front.
.Outlook...
Shower potential returns Friday afternoon into Friday night
with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Saturday through Monday
under high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley/MLB
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...Cermak
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 1:46 PM EDT---------------
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