JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 10:30 AM EDT436
FXUS63 KJKL 241430
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1030 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A passing cold front will bring increased rain and storm chances
to the area Friday afternoon and night.
- Temperatures will drop to near or slightly below normal for the
weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
Did a quick update to freshen up the weather elements with the
latest obs and trends. Outside this very minor update overall.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
Early morning surface analysis has surface high pressure nudging
into the region.The dry cold front that moved through yesterday
afternoon has made it to the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.
Northerly flow around the high is advecting in slight warmer
temperatures overnight; however, lows are still forecast to bottom
out in the upper-30s across the northwestern portions of the CWA
with lows in the low to mid-40s along the southeastern high terrain.
Lastly, beginning to see little hints of fog developing in the river
valleys along the Tennessee border. Fog will burn off after sunrise.
Today will feature the surface high nudging further and further
eastward into the Ohio Valley. As this high nudges in, clear skies
are forecast with high temperatures warming into the mid-60s to low-
70s this afternoon.
While high pressure exists over the area today, to the west, a
couple of upper-level features will bring a slight pattern change to
the forecast area for the end of the forecast period. An upper-level
jetstreak will track through southern Canada with a developing
surface low. Also, a subtle shortwave trough will develop a surface
low over the Central Plains. The two surface lows will eject
northeast and drag a surface cold front toward the area by Friday
evening. While PoP chances will be better in the long-term period, 0-
30% PoP will exist through the end of the period. Ahead of the
front, temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper-70s to low-
80s.
Overall, the period will be highlighted by strong surface high
pressure that will usher near seasonal temperatures back into the
region for today. Ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures
are forecast to climb into upper-70s to low-80s for Friday. A cold
front tracking out of the Mississippi Valley will bring increased
chances for showers and isolated storms Friday evening.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
The 24/00z model suite 500H analysis beginning Saturday evening shows
a longwave/ridge trough pattern over North America. The trough axis
extends from Ellesmere Island south southeastward to the Ohio Valley
and then southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The upper
level ridge axis extends from northwest Mexico northward near/over
the spine of the Rocky Mountains. At the surface, a cold front
extends from a weak low near James Bay down to another weak surface
wave over the Ohio Valley. From there, a cold front extends
southwestward down into the Red River Valley of the South. Behind
the front, a robust ~1028 mb high is situated over the Middle
Missouri Valley.
The models/ensembles are in remarkably good agreement through the
forecast period. The only threat for rainfall comes as the
aforementioned cold front advances through eastern Kentucky on
Friday night and early Saturday. Behind that front, the Ohio Valley
lies under the sway of trailing high pressure through the upcoming
weekend. The upper level ridge axis approaches Mississippi River
early Monday as the surface highs departs east of the Commonwealth,
leaving eastern Kentucky under an moderating southwesterly return
flow. That upper level ridge builds across the Ohio Valley into
Wednesday while another trough of Pacific origin comes ashore and
digs/sharpens over the Western CONUS. A cold front advances ahead of
this next trough, extending from roughly Ottawa-to-Chicago-to-
Oklahoma City by Wednesday evening. The tightening surface pressure
gradient between the approaching cold front and departing surface
high and strengthening return flow will support breezy conditions --
BUFKIT mixed layer momentum transfer suggests 15 to 20 knot gusts at
many locations on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.
In sensible terms, the only rain chances are on Friday night and
Saturday (20 to 50 PoP) with highest chances northeast of KY-15.
There is also enough weak modeled instability to support a small
opportunity for thunder, mainly along and and north of the Mountain
Parkway. Temperature-wise, forecast lows range from the upper 40s to
mid 50s on Friday night as any shower activity moves through.
Conditions improve on Saturday, as clouds yield to increasing
sunshine amidst a drying post-frontal air mass. That dry air mass
will remain through the remainder of the forecast period, albeit
with slow moderation over time. Look for high temperatures to settle
back into the ~ mid 60s on Saturday on Sunday while lows dip back
into the lower 30s to lower 40s. That air mass will gradually
moderate back into the mid/upper 70s while lows generally range from
the mid 40s to mid 50s. Southwesterly breezes will also be on the
increase by Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with many gusts
approaching 20 mph likely.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT THU OCT 24 2024
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as
surface high pressure continues to nudge into the region. This
will allow for mostly clear skies and light winds to prevail over
the area. Toward the end of the forecast period, an approaching
cold front will bring increased and lowering CIGS. Also,
increasing southwesterly winds are forecast to develop but the
bulk of the impacts will be highlighted in future TAF issuances.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 24, 10:30 AM EDT---------------
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