ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 6:44 AM EDT425
FXUS61 KILN 221044
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
644 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure will offer dry
weather and unseasonably warm conditions. A cold front will
move through on Wednesday resulting in a temporary cool down
Thursday, with a warm up for the end of the week. A second cold
front will move through the region on Friday, offering a chance
for rain and cooler more seasonal temperatures for the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expansive mid level ridge to shift east today as a weakening
shortwave moves from the central Plains across the the upper MS
Valley and into the western Great Lakes. In the dry airmass
expect clouds limited to only some thin high level clouds. The
pressure gradient tightens some today with southerly winds at 10
to 15 mph gusting to 20/25 mph at times.
Warm temperatures to continue with high in the mid and upper
70s Tuesday. These readings are 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Initial shortwave dampens out at it pivots northeast thru the
Great Lakes tonight ahead of a stronger shortwave pivoting thru
the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Mostly clear conditions with
mainly high level clouds tonight. Southerly winds will stay up
at 7 to 10 mph keeping temperatures milder than the past few
nights. Expect lows in the lower and middle 50s.
Surface cold front passes thru the area dry on Wednesday due to
a lack of moisture. Expect only a temporary increase in clouds.
Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday with highs from the
lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s southeast. Southwest winds
10 to 20 mph will shift to the northwest with the frontal
passage with gusts up to 25 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 flow pattern is very meridional to start the period. A quick
moving trough will bring temperatures back down to near seasonal
normals for Thursday. However, this trough is quickly replaced by a
narrow ridge on Friday, leading to a warmup in daytime highs back
into the 70s. This ridge becomes quickly displaced as a trough and
surface cold front work their way through the Ohio Valley. Some
rainfall is possible with this passing frontal boundary Friday
afternoon into early Friday night. Better chances will be northwards
up towards central OH, but chances still remain low (in addition to
a small QPF footprint).
Temperatures drop for the weekend to near or just below seasonal
normals. Daytime highs will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s, with
lows dipping into the middle 30s to lower 40s. Dry weather becomes
favored once again through the weekend into the beginning of the
work week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure continues to provide clear skies and calm
winds this morning. This has led to river valley fog with IFR
vsby restrictions at KLUK. The fog will improve by 14Z with VFR
conditions thru the day and into this evening - with only some high
clouds spilling into the area.
Winds will pick up some this afternoon as the high pushes off
to the east and the southerly gradient tightens ahead of a front
to our west. Southerly winds are expected around 10 kts. A 40
kt 925 MB jet develops into the area overnight leading to a
period of low level wind shear between 06Z and 12Z.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until 8 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-
059-066.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 22, 6:44 AM EDT---------------
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