IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:23 AM EDT899
FXUS63 KIND 230623
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler and breezy today
- Rain chances with a Cold front on Friday and Friday Night
- Cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Troughing continues to pass through the Ohio Valley overnight, with
a weakening trend as it interacts with ridging over the Eastern
Coast. This has continued a modest pressure gradient across the
region, with winds remaining above 8 knots. There will likely be
some waning of winds within the Wabash Valley this morning, but
overall winds should remain greater than 8kts through the morning
hours.
Following the initial midlevel shortwave trough will be a broader
trough, that will force a cold front through during the day. As the
front passes, winds will quickly shift towards the NW. Modest LL
lapse rates behind the front should aid PBL mixing, with gusts
between 18 and 22 knots this afternoon. Along with the wind shift
will be a moderation of temperatures closer to (but still above)
climatological normal for mid-late October. Moisture content will
rise along the frontal boundary to near climatology (which is dry
given the season), but will be insufficient for any precipitation
with this shortwave/frontal passage. Still, the increase in mid-
level moisture should result in scattered to broken cloud decks
along and around the midlevel boundary.
Behind the trough, dry air is expected to advect into the region
overnight, with dew points dropping into the mid 30s. Clear skies,
and calming winds overnight will aid in efficient diurnal cooling,
with a large portion of central IN falling into the mid to upper
30s. This should result in a modest layer of frost for central
Indiana Thursday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Thursday -
Another pleasant fall day with cooler temperatures is expected on
Thursday. Canadian high pressure is expected to settle across
Indiana and Ohio. This will result in another sunny day but with
cooler temperatures. Forecast soundings show a very dry column with
subsidence in play. Look for cooler high temperatures in the lower
to middle 60s.
Friday -
A moderate short wave within the flow aloft is expected to push
across Indiana and the Great Lakes, providing moderate forcing. This
features looks to be accompanied by a weak area of surface low
pressure along with a cold front. Pwats are suggested to reach
around 1.25 inches and time heights show sufficient lower and mid
level moisture. Thus ongoing pops will be needed for Friday and
early Friday evening as these features pass. A stray thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out as forecast soundings hint at some elevated
instability. Widespread Thunder is not expected. Low confidence in
high temperatures as rain chances and frontal timing may have a
large impact on temperatures. For now will aim for highs in the
lower to middle 70s with the warmest points across the southern
parts of Central Indiana.
Saturday through Tuesday -
In the wake of the front and low, zonal flow aloft looks to develop
into upper ridging over the plains states by Sunday this will lead
to subsidence and high pressure once again arriving on Saturday. The
high will slowly pass through the region and to the east coast on
Monday. Again, forecast soundings through this time show a dry
column. Thus dry weather with slowly moderating temperatures will be
expected through the weekend and into early next week.
A warming trend will be noted on Tuesday as the strong high drifts
east and a moderate southwesterly gradient sets up across the
region. This should allow highs to return back to the 70s, quite
warm for late October.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
Impacts:
- Non-convective low level wind shear overnight
- Wind shift to the northwest on Wednesday with gusts 20-25kt
Discussion:
Strong winds aloft will continue overnight, but surface winds will
lessen, creating low level wind shear conditions.
A cold front will move through on Wednesday with mainly mid and high
clouds with it. Winds will shift to the northwest during the morning
but gusts will highest in the afternoon. Clearing skies, with
calming winds are expected overnight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Updike
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 2:23 AM EDT---------------
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