PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:04 AM EDT258
FXUS61 KPBZ 230504
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
104 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low rain chances return late this afternoon and evening with the
passage of an upper level wave. Seasonable temperatures to
above average temperatures expected to end the week with another
chance for showers late Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Small risk for showers late this afternoon and evening.
- Gusty winds possible today.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
No major changes to the overnight period.
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon. The front
will usher in clouds, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.
Current model data shows a surface front that is moving well
ahead of the main upper level support and moisture. The
shortwave trough trailing the front does not arrive until this
evening. If rainfall is going to occur, it would have to be with
the large scale ascension from the shortwave. Forecast
soundings continue to show lots of dry air beneath the cloud
deck which will make it difficult for rain drops to reach the
surface. Have kept PoPs low and could see a situation where
sprinkles occur rather than an actual shower.
With the cold front not arriving until late afternoon, there
will still be plenty of time for warming, so temperatures again
will be well above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain chances end tonight
- Dry with decreasing clouds Thursday.
- Ridging will return above average temps Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Trough axis will rush through tonight and a period of NW flow
and cold air advection is anticipated through a portion of
Thursday morning. This setup will keep clouds over the region
tonight during Thursday morning.
Height rises and warm air advection is expected Thursday
afternoon which will decay the cloud cover. Seasonal
temperatures Thursday.
Upper level flow will become more zonal Friday and strong warm
air advection is expected ahead of an approaching cold front.
Shower chances will increase late Friday. Well above normal
temperatures are possible on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Large variability in the pattern over the weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Large run-to-run variability continues Saturday into Sunday.
According to the grand ensembles, 55% of the variability is
depending on the overall intensity of the wave over the Great
Lakes. Saturday could trend near seasonable in a troughing
pattern and lake enhanced precip may follow. However, if the
ridge axis dominates temperatures could return into the mid
and/or low-70s Saturday and Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
General VFR should continue through the period. An upper
shortwave trough and associated cold front will cross the region
after 20z. Gusty surface wind will veer slowly ahead of the
front, becoming NW'ly and diminishing after frontal passage.
Weak and poorly-timed forcing along with limited column moisture
will favor only isolated showers as the shortwave crosses. For
now, PROB30 -SHRA is sufficient to account for these. Any
lingering showers should quickly exit Wednesday evening.
.Outlook...
Dry weather will resume shortly after frontal passage, with a
mix of VFR to localized MVFR stratocu developing amid cold
advection in NW flow. There likely will be variability in cloud
coverage with periods of scattering mixed with bkn (more
persistently scattered around ZZV and more consistently broken
around FKL/DUJ).
VFR under high pressure will dominate thereafter until the next
fast-moving upper trough crosses around the start of the
weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/22
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley/Frazier
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:04 AM EDT---------------
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