IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 7:22 PM EDT801
FXUS63 KIWX 182322
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
722 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen over the next week
with only a small chance for showers Wednesday into Wednesday
night.
- Above normal temperatures in the 70s are expected into Tuesday
before cooling back closer to normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
In the grand scheme of things, a rather benign weather pattern
is in store for the next 7 to 10 days with the only "hiccup"
arriving during the middle of next week.
An elongated upper level ridge, extending from the Great Lakes
south to Florida will slowly pinch off into the upcoming weekend
with the ridge then centering over the Gulf of Mexico. The
northern stream flow will remain in Canada. These 2 features
will cause a trough over the SW US to be cut off into Monday
before opening up and slowly moving towards the Great Lakes by
mid week. Prior to its arrival a dry forecast is expected, with
temperatures moderating back above normal in the 70s (normals in
the mid 60s). The approaching wave will have some moisture with
it (PWATs 0.75" to maybe 1"), but any Gulf moisture will remain
cut off limiting the overall precipitation potential for mid
week as a cold front pushes through. Models are likely overdoing
the extent of the precip given these factors, but enough
moisture and lift should still exist to warrant slgt chc to chc
pops mainly Wed into Wed night.
Behind the front, temperatures will drop back to near or even
below normal levels. Another weak disturbance may make a run at
the area Friday, but will have no moisture to work with
resulting in a dry forecast.
Given the lack of meaningful rain chances in the next 7 days or
more, drought conditions are likely to worsen with the only
saving graces being lower sun angle and somewhat cooler
temperatures limiting how fast we lose additional moisture.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
High pressure remains in control resulting in VFR conditions. S to
SW winds remain below 10 kts.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 7:22 PM EDT---------------
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