PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 2:32 PM CDT465
FXUS63 KPAH 181932
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
232 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions and a warming trend can be expected today
through early next week, with above normal temperatures
Saturday through Wednesday.
- There are small chances of light showers or sprinkles Tuesday
morning and again Wednesday night, but chances are trending
lower.
- Temperatures will drop back to more seasonable readings
Thursday behind a cold front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
Large scale subsidence aloft continues to keep a surface high
pressure ridge centered over the Appalachians. Temperatures are
a tick warmer today than yesterday with a very slight southeast
breeze. We won't see a noticeable change in our pattern until at
least Monday with temperatures just creeping up a little to
above seasonal norms through Friday. Humidity will mostly stay
at bay with no real channel for moisture advection with our
lower level winds remaining out of the southeast and very light
due to the proximity of the main ridge axis.
Tuesday into Wednesday a weakening closed upper low passes to
our north. This system is trending weaker run-to-run and doesn't
look to have a major impact on our sensible weather until at
least Tuesday where the only impact may be an increase in mid-
level moisture and cloud cover. A broader longwave trough is
then forecast to move towards the region on Wednesday into
Thursday. This trough is amplified enough that we do finally
get a bit of a moisture return trend, particularly on the GFS
deterministic runs giving us a little better chance for rain on
Wednesday. However the ECMWF is weaker and less impressive with
the moisture return. Ensemble members are fairly unenthused and
keep our actual precip chances about 15-20% despite the
deterministic GFSs enthusiasm for some showers and storms. For
now rode with the ensemble solution and kept things more dry
than not. Temperatures look to drop a little back to slightly
below seasonal norms but another broader scale ridge is building
in the Day 7-9 guidance that seems to point towards a continued
warm and dry trend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for the day under clear skies and
light to moderate east to southeast winds.
Some ground fog will again be possible near rivers and area
lakes overnight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 2:32 PM CDT---------------
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