LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 12:09 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...140
FXUS64 KLIX 121709
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
Warming trend will continue into Monday as highs warm into the upper
80s to lower 90s. But still very nice conditions as we move through
dry days for the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
24 hours and there's already changes in every global model solution
with respect to the cold front for Monday night. Temperatures have
warmed for Tue into the 80s where they struggled before to get to
the upper 70s. The old solution was to bring one cold front through.
The latest solution is to bring two of them through. The first still
has the same time frame late Monday but stalling it as it gets into
the area while the next front(which we will call a reinforcing
front) moves in Tue early evening. This is the surge that brings the
strongest cold and dry air via model solutions. Now that some of the
energy is being sampled by the terrestrial upper air network, which
is now falling within the 3 day time frame, this may likely be the
case. But the H3 energy that will be bringing this in was only
sampled at its leading edge coming into Alaska at 00z. These
solutions could change a bit more as we get the entire jet sampled
but i would not expect a lot of change from this new message. We
will leave the temp structure as is in the fcast for now and mend if
needed as Tue moves into Day 3. Basically, the old Mon is now the
new Tue. If this scenario works out, it will be the best solution as
far as timing goes since this same upper/mid troughing will be
extended down into the Yucatan by Monday. And since the global
models have been trying to develop another tropical system in the
southwest Caribbean, the massive high behind this would not allow
this system to move into the gulf if a tropical system is able to
get going. It is common to see tropical disturbances or stronger in
the Caribbean during October, so this solution is not a stretch but
we will have to see how all this works out.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
Light and variable winds with clear skies prevailing today, only
mention of brief river fog impacting BTR, MSY, HUM potentially
right at sunrise. Confidence is low in prolonged river fog impacts
and is expected to rapidly clear after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024
NE winds will remain over all waters through Sunday with speeds
around 10kt then becoming light and variable as sfc high pressure
sits right over the northern gulf by late Sunday through Monday. One
of two cold fronts could stall inland Monday evening with a
secondary front forcing the first with it through the northern gulf
Tue evening bringing NE winds of around 25kt Tue night into Wed.
These winds will slowly come around to an easterly direction through
the rest of the week while and ease to around 15 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 59 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 63 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 61 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 87 67 88 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 62 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 59 88 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TE
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 12:09 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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