LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...950
FXUS64 KLIX 110454
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Milton has departed Florida to the east. Troughing extended from
New England southwest into northern Louisiana. There was a
trailing shortwave moving through Kansas and Missouri at mid-
afternoon. Upper ridging was centered over the Arizona-New Mexico
border.
Sunny skies across the local area this afternoon with temperatures
generally in the 80s. Dew points ranged from the mid and upper 40s
across southwest Mississippi to the lower 60s south of Lake
Pontchartrain.
High pressure will shift eastward over the next 36 hours and
extend from the Carolinas to the Texas coast Saturday morning.
That will keep the dry conditions across the area with high
temperatures little changed from today. Assuming winds completely
decouple overnight (they didn't last night), much of the area
should see overnight lows in the 50s the next couple nights.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
Local area generally remains in northwesterly upper flow into at
least the middle of next week, although there will be a couple of
shortwaves move through that flow. The most notable one will move
through Monday night or Tuesday, ushering in considerably cooler
and drier air. Beyond that passage, the GFS and ECMWF operational
solutions diverge from each other as the ECMWF continues to carry
that shortwave out into the Atlantic, while the GFS solution cuts
off an upper low over the Carolinas for a couple days. Neither
solution has a particularly significant impact over the local
area.
If there's going to be any precipitation during the extended
period, it'd be with the cold front Monday night or Tuesday, and
at this point, forecast soundings aren't really supportive of
measurable precipitation.
Will carry the NBM high temperature forecast, which looks to be
pretty close to the GFS/ECMWF numbers. That'll keep highs in the
85-90 range for most of the area through Monday. On Tuesday and
Wednesday, high temperatures in the 70s would be the coolest
temperatures since late April. Overnight lows could fall into the
40s north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor by Wednesday or
Thursday morning next week. We may actually need to lower those
readings in later forecast packages.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
VFR conditions are expected for the whole forecast period. -BL
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024
With Buoy 42040, our furthest east observation, down to 14 knot
winds and 5 foot seas, will drop all marine headlines with the
afternoon package issuance. Don't expect any widespread conditions
necessitating headlines until beyond the Monday night/Tuesday
frontal passage. At that point, Small Craft Advisories may be
necessary.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 56 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 60 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 59 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 67 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 62 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 59 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...RW
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 11:54 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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