PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 12:20 PM CDT681
FXUS63 KPAH 161720
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1220 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Freeze warnings and frost advisories are in effect tonight for
widespread frost and freeze conditions for one more night.
- A warming trend quickly follows to end the week with highs
rebounding back into the 70s and lows in the 40s through the
weekend.
- The weather pattern still looks to remain fairly dry, but an
isolated light rain shower cannot be ruled out Monday night
across the northwest as a weak disturbance passes by.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Clear skies has lead to a chilly start to the morning as a 500 mb
longwave trough is now moving across the Tennessee Valley.
Meanwhile, a 1034 mb sfc high pressure is currently located over the
central Plains. Due to a lingering gradient on the leading edge
of the high pressure, the boundary layer has not been able to
fully decouple this morning, with a light NW wind still around 5
mph across portions of the FA. This is making it difficult to
achieve saturation and will keep frost development more patchy
this morning with minTs mainly in the mid 30s to upper 30s. A
Frost Advisory remains in effect until 13z today.
As the aformentioned sfc high pressure builds directly over the FA
tonight, the boundary layer will decouple quickly supporting robust
radiational cooling with clear skies. Confidence is high on
widespread frost development as minTs fall into the low to mid 30s.
After collaborating with our WFO neighbors, have decided to
hold off on issuing another Frost Advisory until the current
headlines expire, but one will likely be issued later today.
Meanwhile, it is possible a few locations reach Freeze Warning
criteria ending the growing season, but confidence is low in
this occurring outside the typical cold climo spots. This is
also taking into consideration that most model guidance is
likely too warm given the synoptic setup. Have leaned closer to
the NBM 50th percentile for this reason.
After what will be a cold frosty Thursday morning, a warming
trend quickly follows as rapidly rising heights aloft cause a
ridge axis to build over the FA Thursday night. This will lead
to maxTs rebounding into the 70s and minTs in the 40s by the
weekend with a trend towards more seasonable temps prevailing
into early next week. Model guidance has trended more potent
with the 500 mb low that develops in the SW CONUS over the
weekend and brings the energy across the central Plains by
Monday night. There may be just enough PVA and forcing for
ascent to trigger an isolated rain shower with 20-30% PoPs now
progged by the NBM across the NW. However, moisture will be
lacking with model ensembles only supporting a few hundreths of
QPF at best.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024
Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast through the rest of the
day. Airfields near rivers/lakes may be subject to ground fog,
such as CGI in the overnight hours but conditions may still
remain VFR. That should be the only flight impediment through
tomorrow morning with light north winds becoming calm before
beginning to shift to the south Thursday afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
ILZ075>078-080>089.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
ILZ090>094.
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
MOZ076-086-087-100.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
MOZ107>112-114.
IN...Frost Advisory from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight to 7 AM
CDT /8 AM EDT/ Thursday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
KYZ014.
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Thursday for
KYZ001>013-015>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 12:20 PM CDT---------------
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