LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 2:01 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...208
FXUS63 KLMK 180601
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
201 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Frost is likely again tonight into tomorrow morning, with
freezing temperatures possible in rural areas and river valleys.
* Beautiful weather over the weekend with slowly warming
temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Weather remains quiet with the forecast on track. High surface
pressure over the region has caused winds to go calm. This has
allowed the boundary layer to decouple and now radiative cooling
will continue to drop temperatures throughout the night. By
daybreak, most across the CWA will see temperatures in the 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
Synopsis...Center of surface high pressure will steadily move to the
Appalachians while mid-level ridge starts to expand across the East
CONUS. As a result, dry and mild weather will continue for the Lower
Ohio.
This Afternoon...Visible satellite imagery have been depicting a
small and brief layer of shallow cumulus across the Bluegrass and
Cumberland where low-level saturation deficits are lower compared to
further west where the high pressure center is. Rest of the
afternoon and early evening will feature clear skies, light winds,
and highs in the low to mid 60s.
Tonight...Optimal radiational cooling conditions will support lows
in the mid to upper 30s with frost potential very likely across the
forecast area, although it might be more patchy to the westernmost
section. As a result, a Frost Advisory has been issued until 9 AM
EDT/8 AM CDT. Also, near freezing temperatures could be reported in
typical cold locations and along the river valleys, where instances
of fog will also be possible.
Friday...Another dry and sunny day to end the workweek. Winds will
continue on the light side and generally blow from an easterly
direction based on the surface high pressure position. Lowered
dewpoints by a few degrees to account for the potential of slight
dry-air mixdown.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024
To start out the long term period, upper level ridging and surface
high pressure will be featured over the eastern CONUS and troughing
will be over the western CONUS. These upper-level features will
strengthen through Sunday. This will result in slowly warming
temperatures in the Ohio Valley. By Sunday, high temperatures will
be above normal in the mid-upper 70s. Temperatures will then plateau
through early next week, as ridging weakens slightly. Continued
sunny/clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will last through
early next week. Looks to be a beautiful days in long term.
Early-mid next week, troughing over the SW CONUS will swing through
the Central Plains and into the Great Lakes region. Simultaneously,
troughing will move across southern Canada and into the Great Lakes
region. There is a small chance that these two features could phase
together, bringing some below normal temperatures back into the
region. If these features do not phase, we will see near normal
conditions. Moisture ahead of this system will be limited, but could
see some showers along the cold front.
Late next week, high pressure will once again fill into the region
leading to dry conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024
VFR conditions are likely through much of this TAF period. Brief vis
restrictions due to fog cannot be ruled out around and just before
daybreak, mainly at RGA and BWG. However, forecast confidence in fog
development and duration is relatively low after another sunny
afternoon with dry air mixdown.
Expect very light easterly to calm winds through mid-morning. Sfc
high pressure over Ohio will drift a bit to the northeast today.
Easterly winds will continue today, increasing to 4-7 kt late
morning through the afternoon hours.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KDW
SHORT TERM...ALL
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 2:01 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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